{"id":235814,"date":"2026-07-20T08:23:16","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T08:23:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/235814\/"},"modified":"2026-07-20T08:23:16","modified_gmt":"2026-07-20T08:23:16","slug":"datoria-romaniei-a-ajuns-la-2309-miliarde-de-euro-analist-problema-reala-va-aparea-in-2027","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/235814\/","title":{"rendered":"Datoria Rom\u00e2niei a ajuns la 230,9 miliarde de euro. Analist: \u201eProblema real\u0103 va ap\u0103rea \u00een 2027\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Datoria extern\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei a dep\u0103\u0219it 230 de miliarde de euro \u00een mai, \u00een cre\u0219tere cu 2,45 miliarde de euro \u00een primele cinci luni, fa\u0163\u0103 de decembrie 2025. Datoria pe termen lung reprezint\u0103 aproape 80% din total, iar statul este principalul motor al cre\u0219terii. Analistul economic Adrian Negrescu a examinat cifrele pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Bancnote <\/p>\n

Datoria extern\u0103 a crescut \u00een primele 5 luni din 2026. FOTO: Shutterstock<\/p>\n

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Stocul datoriei externe totale a Rom\u00e2niei <\/a>a continuat s\u0103 creasc\u0103 \u00een primele cinci luni ale anului, ajung\u00e2nd la 230,9 miliarde de euro la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lunii mai, conform datelor publicate miercuri de Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei. <\/p>\n

\u00cen aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103, datoria extern\u0103 s-a majorat cu 2,45 miliarde de euro fa\u021b\u0103 de finalul anului trecut, numai \u00een luna mai cre\u0219terea fiind de 1,36 miliarde de euro, evolu\u021bie determinat\u0103 \u00een principal de dinamica datoriei pe termen lung.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Structura datoriei externe arat\u0103 o pondere cov\u00e2r\u0219itoare a componentei pe termen lung, care a urcat la 183,9 miliarde de euro, reprezent\u00e2nd aproape 80% din total, \u00een cre\u0219tere cu 2% fa\u021b\u0103 de sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului trecut. <\/p>\n

\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, datoria pe termen scurt a \u00eenregistrat o sc\u0103dere de 2,4%, cobor\u00e2nd la 47 de miliarde de euro<\/a>, ceea ce reprezint\u0103 20,4% din total. <\/p>\n

Analistul Adrian Negrescu a explicat, pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, principalele idei cu care trebuie s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2nem \u00een privin\u021ba cre\u0219terii datoriei statului \u0219i a avertizat c\u0103 adev\u0103rata dificultate va ap\u0103rea \u00een anul 2027.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Paradoxul fiscal: taxele au crescut, dar reducerile de cheltuieli sunt simbolice <\/p>\n

Adrian Negrescu a subliniat, pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, c\u0103 statul este principalul motor al cre\u0219terii datoriei publice, iar \u00eentrebarea legitim\u0103 este ce marj\u0103 de siguran\u021b\u0103 mai avem \u00een raport cu \u021bintele de deficit impuse de Pactul de Stabilitate \u0219i Cre\u0219tere al Uniunii Europene.\u00a0<\/p>\n

R\u0103spunsul, potrivit analistului, este c\u0103 pentru anul 2026 problema nu se pune \u00een termeni critici, deoarece ne \u00eencadr\u0103m \u00een \u021bintele de deficit asumate, chiar dac\u0103 ne \u00eemprumut\u0103m cu peste 50 de miliarde de euro anual.<\/p>\n

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\u201eAv\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 statul este principalul motor al cre\u0219terii datoriei publice, \u00eentrebarea legitim\u0103 este ce marj\u0103 de siguran\u021b\u0103 mai avem \u00een raport cu \u021bintele de deficit impuse de Pactul de Stabilitate \u0219i Cre\u0219tere al Uniunii Europene. Iar r\u0103spunsul este c\u0103, pentru anul 2026, problema nu se pune \u00een termeni critici, deoarece \u00een acest moment ne \u00eencadr\u0103m \u00een \u021bintele de deficit asumate, chiar dac\u0103 ne \u00eemprumut\u0103m cu peste 50 de miliarde de euro anual, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 aproximativ un miliard de euro \u00een medie pe s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103. \u00cens\u0103 adev\u0103rata dificultate va ap\u0103rea \u00een anul 2027, atunci c\u00e2nd deficitul public va trebui s\u0103 scad\u0103 spre 5%, iar acest lucru implic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 \u0219i volumul \u00eemprumuturilor publice va trebui s\u0103 fie mai temperat, pentru ca factura datoriilor s\u0103 fie mai mic\u0103 \u0219i s\u0103 nu mai afecteze \u00een mod semnificativ deficitul public\u201d, a declarat Adrian Negrescu.<\/p>\n

Analistul a atras aten\u021bia asupra unui paradox al situa\u021biei economice actuale: de\u0219i taxele au crescut \u0219i colectarea este mai mare, reducerile de cheltuieli ale statului sunt de-a dreptul simbolice, ceea ce indic\u0103 un poten\u021bial uria\u0219 de sc\u0103dere a cheltuielilor \u00een anul viitor.<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cen momentul de fa\u021b\u0103, ne afl\u0103m \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 paradoxal\u0103, deoarece am crescut taxele \u0219i colect\u0103m mai mul\u021bi bani din economie. \u00cens\u0103, \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te cheltuielile statului, reducerile sunt de-a dreptul simbolice, iar acest lucru indic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 exist\u0103 un poten\u021bial uria\u0219 de sc\u0103dere a cheltuielilor \u00een anul viitor, indiferent de cine va forma guvernul \u0219i de orientarea sa politic\u0103\u201d, a mai relatat Negrescu.<\/p>\n

Statul prefer\u0103 creditele externe, \u00een detrimentul emisiunilor de obliga\u021biuni <\/p>\n

Negrescu a explicat c\u0103 orientarea statului c\u0103tre credite externe \u00een detrimentul emisiunilor de obliga\u021biuni trimite un semnal economic clar.<\/p>\n

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\u201e\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te orientarea statului c\u0103tre credite externe \u00een detrimentul emisiunilor de obliga\u021biuni. Aceast\u0103 schimbare trimite un semnal economic clar, \u0219i anume c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia este condamnat\u0103 s\u0103 se \u00eemprumute de pe pie\u021bele externe \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care sistemul bancar local este deja arhiplin \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te finan\u021b\u0103rile acordate statului, iar b\u0103ncile din Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i-au crescut deja \u00eemprumuturile acordate statului p\u00e2n\u0103 aproape de zona de risc, astfel c\u0103 g\u0103sirea unor noi surse de finan\u021bare devine absolut necesar\u0103\u201d, a relatat economistul.<\/p>\n

Acesta a estimat c\u0103, \u00een 2027, noul guvern se va \u00eendrepta \u0219i spre alte pie\u021be, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd spre pia\u021ba japonez\u0103 \u0219i apoi spre cea american\u0103, \u00een \u00eencercarea de a g\u0103si surse alternative de \u00eemprumut, deoarece emisiunile clasice de obliga\u021biuni \u00ee\u0219i vor atinge poten\u021bialul de absorb\u021bie.<\/p>\n

Un consilier BNR explic\u0103 ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 retrogradarea ratingului Rom\u00e2niei <\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eEu m\u0103 a\u0219tept ca \u00een anul 2027 noul guvern, indiferent de componen\u021ba sa, s\u0103 se \u00eendrepte \u0219i spre alte pie\u021be, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd spre pia\u021ba japonez\u0103 \u0219i apoi spre alte pie\u021be interna\u021bionale, probabil spre cea american\u0103, \u00een \u00eencercarea de a g\u0103si surse alternative de \u00eemprumut, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 emisiunile clasice de obliga\u021biuni \u00ee\u0219i vor atinge poten\u021bialul de absorb\u021bie \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te Rom\u00e2nia, iar fondurile str\u0103ine de investi\u021bii care finan\u021beaz\u0103 \u00een prezent \u021bara noastr\u0103 \u0219i-au atins, de asemenea, marje foarte ridicate de \u00eemprumut. Iar \u00een aceast\u0103 perspectiv\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere situa\u021bia politic\u0103 instabil\u0103 \u0219i lipsa reformelor structurale din anumite sectoare, este pu\u021bin probabil ca ace\u0219tia s\u0103 mai aloce linii de finan\u021bare semnificative pentru Rom\u00e2nia\u201d, a estimat analistul.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201ePe termen mediu, nu vom avea o problem\u0103 \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te plata datoriilor\u201d <\/p>\n

\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te rezervele valutare ale BNR, Negrescu a subliniat c\u0103 acestea sunt suficiente pentru a acoperi integral datoria extern\u0103 pe termen scurt, ceea ce reprezint\u0103 o veste bun\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201eReferitor la rezervele valutare ale B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale a Rom\u00e2niei, este important de men\u021bionat c\u0103 acestea sunt suficiente pentru a acoperi integral datoria extern\u0103 pe termen scurt, ceea ce reprezint\u0103 o veste bun\u0103, deoarece Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 \u0219i-a crescut rezerva valutar\u0103 \u00een ultimii ani spre 60-70 de miliarde de euro, iar pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 aceasta, mai de\u021binem \u0219i rezerva de aur, din care o mare parte se afl\u0103 la Londra.<\/p>\n

Iar toate acestea sunt argumente solide \u00een fa\u021ba investitorilor atunci c\u00e2nd ne \u00eemprumut\u0103m sume de ordinul zecilor de miliarde de euro, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t, pe termen mediu, nu vom avea o problem\u0103 \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te plata datoriilor\u201d, a precizat analistul economic.<\/p>\n

Adrian Negrescu a avertizat c\u0103, de\u0219i pe termen mediu situa\u021bia este sub control, exist\u0103 riscuri semnificative \u00een cazul \u00een care un guvern populist va cre\u0219te artificial pensiile \u0219i salariile \u0219i va aloca bani pe criterii politice \u00een investi\u021bii f\u0103r\u0103 noim\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eAcest lucru nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 suntem complet feri\u021bi de riscuri, pentru c\u0103 dac\u0103 va veni la putere un guvern populist care va cre\u0219te din pix pensiile \u0219i salariile \u0219i va aloca bani pe criterii politice \u00een investi\u021bii f\u0103r\u0103 noim\u0103, este posibil ca, la un moment dat, s\u0103 fim nevoi\u021bi s\u0103 ne \u00eemprumut\u0103m \u0219i mai mult sau chiar s\u0103 vindem din aurul \u021b\u0103rii, din inventarul B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale, pentru a ne pl\u0103ti datoriile. Acest lucru s-ar putea \u00eent\u00e2mpla dac\u0103 mixul de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 \u0219i mixul colateral pe care Rom\u00e2nia \u00eel ofer\u0103 finan\u021batorilor ar ajunge sub semnul \u00eentreb\u0103rii, ceea ce ar submina \u00eencrederea investitorilor \u0219i ar putea duce la o criz\u0103 de finan\u021bare\u201d, a conchis analistul economic.<\/p>\n

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Investi\u021biile str\u0103ine directe sunt finan\u021bate mai slab <\/p>\n

Componenta reprezentat\u0103 de creditele intragrup, aferente investi\u021biilor str\u0103ine directe, s-a redus la 49,7 miliarde de euro, de la 51,5 miliarde de euro la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului trecut. Aceast\u0103 sc\u0103dere indic\u0103 o diminuare a finan\u021b\u0103rii acordate de companiile-mam\u0103 din str\u0103in\u0103tate filialelor din Rom\u00e2nia sau o reducere a expunerii investitorilor str\u0103ini prin intermediul creditelor intragrup. Evolu\u021bia poate fi interpretat\u0103 ca un semn al ajust\u0103rii structurii de finan\u021bare a investi\u021biilor str\u0103ine directe, \u00een contextul \u00een care companiile multina\u021bionale \u00ee\u0219i pot reconfigura sursele de finan\u021bare \u00een func\u021bie de condi\u021biile de pia\u021b\u0103 \u0219i de costurile de creditare.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bolojan explic\u0103 de ce trebuie adoptate urgent legile PNRR: \u201e4,5 miliarde de euro sunt banii pentru autostr\u0103zi, spitale \u0219i \u0219coli\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

BNR mai arat\u0103 c\u0103 rata serviciului datoriei externe pe termen lung a fost de 15,5% \u00een perioada ianuarie\u2013mai 2026, \u00een sc\u0103dere de la 18,4% \u00eenregistrat\u0103 \u00een anul 2025. Aceast\u0103 reducere indic\u0103 o u\u0219urare relativ\u0103 a presiunii asupra veniturilor din exporturi \u0219i a intr\u0103rilor de valut\u0103, deoarece o rat\u0103 mai mic\u0103 a serviciului datoriei \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 o propor\u021bie mai redus\u0103 din veniturile externe este destinat\u0103 ramburs\u0103rilor \u0219i pl\u0103\u021bilor de dob\u00e2nzi. Totodat\u0103, gradul de acoperire a importurilor de bunuri \u0219i servicii cu rezervele interna\u021bionale s-a men\u021binut la \u0219ase luni, un nivel considerat confortabil de c\u0103tre anali\u0219ti, care asigur\u0103 o perioad\u0103 de siguran\u021b\u0103 \u00een cazul unei \u00eentreruperi a intr\u0103rilor de valut\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te gradul de acoperire a datoriei externe pe termen scurt cu rezervele valutare ale BNR, acesta a cobor\u00e2t u\u0219or, la 102,4%, de la 104,4% la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului trecut. Acest indicator m\u0103soar\u0103 capacitatea B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale de a acoperi datoria extern\u0103 care trebuie rambursat\u0103 \u00een termen scurt cu rezervele de valut\u0103 disponibile. De\u0219i a \u00eenregistrat o u\u0219oar\u0103 sc\u0103dere, nivelul r\u0103m\u00e2ne peste 100%, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 rezervele valutare ale BNR sunt suficiente pentru a acoperi integral datoria extern\u0103 pe termen scurt.<\/p>\n

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Administra\u021bia public\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne principalul de\u021bin\u0103tor al datoriei externe. La sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lunii mai, datoria extern\u0103 a statului a ajuns la 128,2 miliarde de euro, \u00een cre\u0219tere de aproape 2,6 miliarde de euro fa\u021b\u0103 de nivelul \u00eenregistrat la finalul anului 2025. Aceast\u0103 majorare a fost determinat\u0103 \u00een principal de cre\u0219terea \u00eemprumuturilor contractate de stat, \u00een timp ce stocul titlurilor de datorie a r\u0103mas relativ stabil, ceea ce indic\u0103 o orientare mai accentuat\u0103 c\u0103tre finan\u021barea prin credite externe \u00een detrimentul emisiunilor de obliga\u021biuni. Ponderea administra\u021biei publice \u00een totalul datoriei externe se men\u021bine astfel la un nivel ridicat, reflect\u00e2nd necesarul de finan\u021bare al bugetului de stat <\/a>\u0219i al proiectelor de infrastructur\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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