{"id":236540,"date":"2026-07-21T06:32:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T06:32:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/236540\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T06:32:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T06:32:10","slug":"nicusor-dan-a-pierdut-aproape-jumatate-din-increderea-romanilor-intr-un-an-ce-explica-declinul-din-sondaje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/236540\/","title":{"rendered":"Nicu\u0219or Dan a pierdut aproape jum\u0103tate din \u00eencrederea rom\u00e2nilor \u00eentr-un an. Ce explic\u0103 declinul din sondaje"},"content":{"rendered":"

La aproape un an de la preluarea mandatului la Palatul Cotroceni, Nicu\u0219or Dan \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 o pr\u0103bu\u0219ire a cotei de \u00eencredere \u00een r\u00e2ndul popula\u021biei. Dac\u0103 la alegerile preziden\u021biale din 2025 a ob\u021binut 53,6% dintre voturi,\u00a0cel mai recent sondaj, realizat la \u00eenceputul lunii iulie, \u00eel crediteaz\u0103 cu doar 24,2% \u00eencredere<\/a>. Sc\u0103derea, de aproape 30 de puncte procentuale, se produce pe fondul crizei politice, pentru care o parte dintre sus\u021bin\u0103torii s\u0103i \u00eel consider\u0103 direct responsabil.<\/p>\n

\"Nicu\u0219or <\/p>\n

Nicu\u0219or Dan discut\u0103 cu protestatarii pro-justi\u021bie. FOTO: Inquam Photos<\/p>\n

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Comparat\u0103 cu \u00eenceputurile de mandat ale predecesorilor s\u0103i, evolu\u021bia \u00eencrederii \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan este una neobi\u0219nuit\u0103. Emil Constantinescu a c\u00e2\u0219tigat alegerile din 1996 cu 54,4% din voturi \u0219i a \u00eencheiat primul an de mandat cu o cot\u0103 de \u00eencredere de 52%, potrivit sondajelor CURS, r\u0103m\u00e2n\u00e2nd atunci politicianul cu cea mai mare \u00eencredere din Rom\u00e2nia. Ion Iliescu a revenit la Cotroceni \u00een 2000 cu 66,8% din voturi, iar \u00een noiembrie 2001 era cotat la 48% \u00eencredere, \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 \u00een care devenise clar c\u0103 nu mai putea candida pentru un nou mandat. Traian B\u0103sescu, ales \u00een 2004 cu 51,2%, ajunsese la 63% \u00eencredere dup\u0103 numai dou\u0103 luni de mandat, \u00eenainte de a cobor\u00ee la 48% \u00een septembrie 2005. Chiar \u0219i atunci, un sondaj realizat \u00een toamna anului 2006 ar\u0103ta c\u0103 ar fi c\u00e2\u0219tigat din nou alegerile, aproape cu acela\u0219i scor ca \u00een 2004. Klaus Iohannis este singurul dintre pre\u0219edin\u021bii postdecembri\u0219ti care \u0219i-a consolidat capitalul de \u00eencredere \u00een primul an de mandat, urc\u00e2nd de la 54,4% la alegerile din 2014 la 59,8% \u00een decembrie 2015.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\" Sc\u0103derea \u00eencepuse \u00eenaintea crizei politice <\/p>\n

De\u0219i pr\u0103bu\u0219irea din sondaje pare s\u0103 coincid\u0103 cu actuala criz\u0103 politic\u0103, analistul Cristian Hri\u021buc sus\u021bine c\u0103 sc\u0103derea \u00eencrederii \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan a \u00eenceput \u00eenainte ca tensiunile din coali\u021bie s\u0103 explodeze. \u00cen lipsa unor m\u0103sur\u0103tori comparative realizate \u00eenainte de declan\u0219area crizei, amploarea exact\u0103 a declinului este dificil de stabilit, \u00eens\u0103 diferen\u021ba dintre scorul ob\u021binut la alegeri \u0219i nivelul actual al \u00eencrederii arat\u0103 o erodare accelerat\u0103 a capitalului politic.<\/p>\n

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\u201eSc\u0103derea este foarte mare \u0219i \u00eencepuse \u00eenc\u0103 dinaintea crizei politice. Sondajul \u00eel d\u0103dea la aproximativ 24%, probabil chiar cu mult sub aceast\u0103 cot\u0103. P\u00e2n\u0103 nu avem \u0219i o cercetare comparativ\u0103 realizat\u0103 \u00eenainte de izbucnirea crizei, putem observa doar c\u0103 a pierdut mai mult de jum\u0103tate din scorul ob\u021binut la alegeri. Dac\u0103 atunci a c\u00e2\u0219tigat cu peste 50%, acum vorbim despre o sc\u0103dere de aproximativ 27 de puncte procentuale”, a explicat Cristian Hri\u021buc.<\/p>\n

\u00cen opinia lui Cristian Hri\u021buc, dimensiunea sc\u0103derii este dublat\u0103 de momentul \u00een care aceasta se produce. Un nivel de \u00eencredere de aproximativ 24% este caracteristic, \u00een mod normal, unor pre\u0219edin\u021bi afla\u021bi spre sf\u00e2r\u0219itul mandatului, dup\u0103 ani de confrunt\u0103ri politice \u0219i de uzur\u0103 public\u0103. \u00cen cazul lui Nicu\u0219or Dan, aceast\u0103 situa\u021bie apare la \u00eenceputul mandatului, ceea ce \u00eel poate transforma \u00eentr-un pre\u0219edinte vulnerabil \u00eentr-un timp foarte scurt.<\/p>\n

\u201eEste un scor specific mai degrab\u0103 unui pre\u0219edinte aflat la final de mandat, nu unuia aflat \u00een primul an. Din punctul meu de vedere, \u00eel face extrem de vulnerabil. Dac\u0103 s-ar face acum o m\u0103sur\u0103toare serioas\u0103, cred c\u0103 am putea avea surprize \u0219i mai mari, iar nivelul \u00eencrederii ar putea cobor\u00ee chiar sub 20%”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

De ce Nicu\u0219or Dan \u0219i-a pierdut o parte din electorat <\/p>\n

Cristian Hri\u021buc pune declinul \u00eencrederii \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan pe seama modului \u00een care pre\u0219edintele s-a pozi\u021bionat \u00een timpul crizei politice \u0219i \u00een rela\u021bia cu Guvernul Bolojan. \u00cen opinia analistului, cei mai dezam\u0103gi\u021bi sunt chiar aleg\u0103torii care au contribuit decisiv la victoria sa, \u00een special votan\u021bii din zona USR \u0219i PNL, care au sus\u021binut mesajul de reform\u0103 \u0219i promisiunea unei rupturi fa\u021b\u0103 de vechile practici politice.<\/p>\n

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\u201eOamenii \u0219i-au pierdut \u00eencrederea pentru c\u0103 jocul f\u0103cut \u00eempotriva lui Bolojan a fost extrem de transparent. Nicu\u0219or Dan a \u00eenc\u0103lcat valori pe care le-a invocat \u00een campanie \u0219i pentru care a primit voturi. Problema lui este c\u0103 pierde tocmai electoratul din primul cerc de sus\u021bin\u0103tori, oamenii care l-au votat at\u00e2t la Prim\u0103ria Capitalei, c\u00e2t \u0219i la alegerile preziden\u021biale. Vorbim \u00een special despre votan\u021bi din zona USR \u0219i PNL, un electorat mai preten\u021bios, care revine foarte greu dup\u0103 ce consider\u0103 c\u0103 a fost \u00een\u0219elat”, a explicat Cristian Hri\u021buc.<\/p>\n

\u00cen opinia analistului, actualul nivel al \u00eencrederii \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan este rezultatul unei acumul\u0103ri de decizii \u0219i controverse. Hri\u021buc indic\u0103 lipsa unei pozi\u021bii clare \u00eenaintea mo\u021biunii de cenzur\u0103, implicarea \u00een negocierile interne din PNL pentru desemnarea premierului, blocarea unor nominaliz\u0103ri \u0219i comunicarea public\u0103 drept principalele momente care au contribuit la deteriorarea imaginii pre\u0219edintelui.<\/p>\n

AUR continu\u0103 s\u0103 conduc\u0103 \u00een inten\u021biile de vot pentru alegerile parlamentare. Doar o treime dintre rom\u00e2ni \u0219i-ar dori anticipate <\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eEste \u0219i electoratul care mobilizeaz\u0103 al\u021bi oameni, care merge la vot din convingere, nu pentru beneficii materiale. Toate mi\u0219c\u0103rile lui Nicu\u0219or Dan au contribuit la aceast\u0103 erodare. \u00cenainte de mo\u021biune nu a avut nicio pozi\u021bie clar\u0103. A desemnat un premier \u0219i s-a implicat \u00eentr-un mod f\u0103r\u0103 precedent \u00een jocurile interne ale PNL. A blocat apoi nominaliz\u0103rile, l\u0103s\u00e2nd impresia c\u0103 favorizeaz\u0103 PSD. La toate acestea s-au ad\u0103ugat o comunicare foarte slab\u0103, gafele din cazul procurorilor \u0219i numeroase incidente de imagine. Luate separat poate nu p\u0103reau decisive, \u00eens\u0103 \u00eempreun\u0103 au produs un efect puternic \u00eentr-un timp foarte scurt”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

Participarea la reuniunea convocat\u0103 de Donald Trump, un alt factor invocat <\/p>\n

Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 evolu\u021biile din politica intern\u0103, Cristian Hri\u021buc consider\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219i unele decizii de politic\u0103 extern\u0103 au avut un impact asupra \u00eencrederii \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan. \u00cen opinia sa, participarea pre\u0219edintelui la reuniunea convocat\u0103 de Donald Trump a venit \u00eentr-un moment sensibil pentru o parte a electoratului urban, care se a\u0219tepta la o pozi\u021bionare mai ferm\u0103 \u00een raport cu fostul lider american.<\/p>\n

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\u201eExist\u0103 \u0219i componenta extern\u0103. Chiar dac\u0103 nu a f\u0103cut neap\u0103rat un joc r\u0103u pentru Rom\u00e2nia, participarea la acel consiliu convocat de Donald Trump a venit \u00eentr-un moment foarte sensibil. O parte a electoratului a perceput c\u0103 ar fi fost nevoie de o atitudine mai ferm\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de un lider care a produs multe tensiuni la nivel interna\u021bional \u0219i, din acest motiv, a existat \u0219i acolo un cost de imagine”, a explicat Cristian Hri\u021buc.<\/p>\n

Lipsa unui partid puternic \u00eei reduce capacitatea de influen\u021b\u0103 <\/p>\n

\u00cen analiza sa, Hri\u021buc atrage aten\u021bia \u0219i asupra unei diferen\u021be importante fa\u021b\u0103 de fo\u0219tii \u0219efi de stat. Spre deosebire de Klaus Iohannis sau Traian B\u0103sescu, care au beneficiat de sus\u021binerea unor partide puternice, Nicu\u0219or Dan nu dispune de aceea\u0219i baz\u0103 politic\u0103. \u00cen opinia fostului consilier preziden\u021bial, aceast\u0103 lips\u0103 \u00eei reduce capacitatea de a-\u0219i impune agenda, mai ales \u00eentr-un moment \u00een care \u00eencrederea \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan este \u00een sc\u0103dere.<\/p>\n

\u201eToate acestea \u00eei afecteaz\u0103 \u0219i capacitatea de a-\u0219i impune agenda. Spre deosebire de predecesorii s\u0103i, nu are \u00een spate un partid mare. Klaus Iohannis a avut un PNL foarte puternic, Traian B\u0103sescu a avut, la r\u00e2ndul lui, un partid care \u00eei sus\u021binea agenda. Nicu\u0219or Dan nu beneficiaz\u0103 de acest avantaj, iar c\u00e2nd pierzi \u0219i \u00eencrederea popula\u021biei \u00ee\u021bi sl\u0103be\u0219te principala arm\u0103, for\u021ba cuv\u00e2ntului. Un pre\u0219edinte influen\u021beaz\u0103 prin credibilitate \u0219i prin capacitatea de a pune presiune public\u0103 asupra partidelor. Dac\u0103 aceast\u0103 credibilitate dispare, \u00eei r\u0103m\u00e2n foarte pu\u021bine instrumente”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

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\u00centrebat dac\u0103 experien\u021ba de la Prim\u0103ria Capitalei, unde Nicu\u0219or Dan a reu\u0219it s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i reconstruiasc\u0103 imaginea dup\u0103 un \u00eenceput dificil, poate reprezenta un model \u0219i pentru mandatul de la Cotroceni, Cristian Hri\u021buc este rezervat. Analistul consider\u0103 c\u0103 miza alegerilor preziden\u021biale \u0219i profilul electoratului sunt mult diferite fa\u021b\u0103 de cele din Bucure\u0219ti.<\/p>\n

\u201eNu cred c\u0103 situa\u021bia poate fi comparat\u0103 cu perioada \u00een care era primar general. La Prim\u0103ria Capitalei a beneficiat \u0219i de sl\u0103biciunea adversarilor, iar electoratul din Bucure\u0219ti are o dinamic\u0103 diferit\u0103. La alegerile preziden\u021biale baza electoral\u0103 este mult mai larg\u0103 \u0219i mult mai eterogen\u0103. \u00cen plus, dac\u0103 un politician se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te la jum\u0103tate din nivelul de \u00eencredere \u00eentr-un timp at\u00e2t de scurt, este foarte greu s\u0103 revin\u0103”, a explicat Cristian Hri\u021buc.<\/p>\n

Un sondaj IRES la comanda PSD plaseaz\u0103 partidul cu un avans de 4% \u00een fa\u021ba PNL. Siegfried Mure\u0219an: \u201ePe noi nu ne p\u0103c\u0103lesc\u201d <\/a>Rela\u021bia cu PSD \u00eei limiteaz\u0103 marja de manevr\u0103, spune Hri\u021buc <\/p>\n

Cristian Hri\u021buc consider\u0103 c\u0103 rec\u00e2\u0219tigarea electoratului pierdut ar presupune schimb\u0103ri clare de strategie \u0219i gesturi politice menite s\u0103 refac\u0103 rela\u021bia cu aleg\u0103torii dezam\u0103gi\u021bi. \u00cen opinia sa, \u00eens\u0103, marja de manevr\u0103 a pre\u0219edintelui s-a redus considerabil \u00een urma rela\u021biei construite cu PSD \u0219i cu premierul Sorin Grindeanu.<\/p>\n

\u201eAr trebui s\u0103 fac\u0103 gesturi de compensare pe toate capitolele unde a pierdut \u00eencredere \u0219i s\u0103 transmit\u0103 c\u0103 a \u00een\u021beles gre\u0219elile \u0219i c\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i schimb\u0103 comportamentul. Problema este c\u0103, din punctul meu de vedere, a ajuns dependent politic de PSD \u0219i de Sorin Grindeanu. A intrat \u00eentr-un joc din care \u00eei este foarte greu s\u0103 mai ias\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 costuri. Dac\u0103 acum ar \u00eencerca s\u0103 schimbe direc\u021bia \u0219i s\u0103 ofere PNL sau USR ceea ce le-a refuzat anterior, risc\u0103 s\u0103 nu mai poat\u0103 forma o majoritate. De aceea cred c\u0103 este deja t\u00e2rziu pentru astfel de gesturi”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u00cen final, Cristian Hri\u021buc pune evolu\u021bia \u00eencrederii \u00een Nicu\u0219or Dan \u0219i \u00een contextul schimb\u0103rii percep\u021biei publice asupra pre\u0219edintelui. \u00cen opinia sa, Rom\u00e2nia traverseaz\u0103 un curent antisistem tot mai puternic, iar o parte dintre aleg\u0103tori \u00eel v\u0103d acum pe Nicu\u0219or Dan mai degrab\u0103 ca pe un reprezentant al sistemului politic dec\u00e2t ca pe politicianul care promitea schimbarea.<\/p>\n

\u201eMarea lui problem\u0103 este c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia traverseaz\u0103 un puternic curent antisistem. Nu este vorba doar despre electoratul AUR, ci \u0219i despre o parte dintre votan\u021bii PSD, PNL \u0219i USR, care resping modul \u00een care func\u021bioneaz\u0103 sistemul politic. Pentru foarte mul\u021bi oameni, sistemul \u00eenseamn\u0103 inechitate \u0219i privilegii pentru clasa politic\u0103. Iar Nicu\u0219or Dan este perceput tot mai mult drept reprezentantul acestui sistem, mai ales dup\u0103 declara\u021biile \u0219i deciziile din ultimele luni”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

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