{"id":241919,"date":"2026-07-27T09:43:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/241919\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T09:43:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:43:10","slug":"economist-romania-este-deja-in-recesiune-prelungita-fara-impozitare-progresiva-si-reforme-riscam-un-colaps-economic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/241919\/","title":{"rendered":"Economist: Rom\u00e2nia este deja \u00een recesiune prelungit\u0103. \u201eF\u0103r\u0103 impozitare progresiv\u0103 \u0219i reforme risc\u0103m un colaps economic\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rom\u00e2nia nu mai traverseaz\u0103 doar o perioad\u0103 economic\u0103 dificil\u0103, ci se afl\u0103 deja \u00eentr-o recesiune prelungit\u0103, avertizeaz\u0103 economistul Adrian Mitroi, membru fondator al CFA Society Rom\u00e2nia. \u00centr-un interviu pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, acesta sus\u021bine c\u0103 \u021bara risc\u0103 s\u0103 intre \u00eentr-un \u201epurgatoriu\u201d economic dac\u0103 nu renun\u021b\u0103 la cota unic\u0103, nu introduce impozitarea progresiv\u0103 \u0219i nu restructureaz\u0103 profund aparatul bugetar. \u00cen caz contrar, spune economistul, costurile vor fi suportate \u00een continuare de clasa de mijloc \u0219i de categoriile vulnerabile, iar Rom\u00e2nia se poate apropia de un colaps economic.<\/p>\n

\"george <\/p>\n

Cele dou\u0103 reforme refuzate de politicieni, f\u0103r\u0103 de care intr\u0103m \u00een colaps economic. FOTO: Mediafax<\/p>\n

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\u00centr-un interviu pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, Adrian Mitroi, economist \u0219i membru fondator al CFA Society Romania, asocia\u021bia profesional\u0103 a exper\u021bilor \u00een investi\u021bii \u0219i finan\u021be din \u021bar\u0103 care de\u021bin titlul interna\u021bional de Chartered Financial Analyst, a descifrat problemele pe care le confrunt\u0103 finan\u021bele \u021b\u0103rii.<\/p>\n

\u00centr-un context \u00een care infla\u021bia anticipat\u0103 pentru anul viitor sare la 7,63%, iar cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 abia atinge 0,1%, Mitroi vorbe\u0219te nu despre o amenin\u021bare viitoare, ci despre o recesiune prelungit\u0103 deja instalat\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Potrivit acestuia, Rom\u00e2nia are \u00een fa\u021b\u0103 o alegere care ne va trece printr-un \u201epurgatoriu\u201d \u00een urm\u0103torii ani: trecem la impozitarea progresiv\u0103 \u0219i restructur\u0103m aparatul bugetar sau ne vom confrunta cu un colaps economic.<\/p>\n

Adev\u0103rul: Infla\u021bia anticipat\u0103 a s\u0103rit la 7,63% pentru anul viitor, iar cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 abia atinge 0,1%. Putem spune oficial avem un viitor dominat de stagfla\u021bie?<\/p>\n

Adrian Mitroi: Noi suntem deja \u00eentr-o recesiune prelungit\u0103. Din recesiune nu se iese, \u00een general, u\u0219or, pentru c\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile sunt foarte mari \u0219i banca central\u0103 are motivul acesta al infla\u021biei pentru a nu le cobor\u00ee suficient, ca s\u0103 animeze pu\u021bin economia. Deci o economie f\u0103r\u0103 stimuli nu poate ie\u0219i u\u0219or din recesiune dec\u00e2t dac\u0103 trece prin furcile caudine ale unei stagfla\u021bii, cum corect a\u021bi spus, unei cre\u0219teri economice subpare cu foarte multe pagube \u00een acest parcurs.<\/p>\n

Cum vede\u021bi impactul pe care \u00eel vor suferi oamenii de r\u00e2nd, \u00een special popula\u021bia vulnerabil\u0103?<\/p>\n

A\u0219 \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bi popula\u021bia \u00een dou\u0103 categorii principale: pe de o parte, cei care au active financiare nete, iar pe de alt\u0103 parte, cei care au pasive financiare nete, adic\u0103 persoanele puternic \u00eendatorate, \u00een special din domeniul imobiliar, \u0219i cele care cheltuiesc aproximativ jum\u0103tate din venitul gospod\u0103riei doar pentru subzisten\u021b\u0103. Astfel, societatea s-ar \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bi \u00een dou\u0103 mari segmente, fiecare cu propria sa clas\u0103 mijlocie. \u00cens\u0103 cei mai s\u0103raci sunt afecta\u021bi cel mai puternic de modelul economic actual, care este regresiv: infla\u021bia love\u0219te mai dur categoriile defavorizate, iar cota unic\u0103 de impozitare are acela\u0219i efect regresiv, favoriz\u00e2nd indirect cei boga\u021bi \u00een detrimentul celor s\u0103raci. Nu cred c\u0103 echilibrul politic se va schimba suficient de repede pentru a permite introducerea unei impozit\u0103ri progresive, de\u0219i aceasta ar fi o solu\u021bie s\u0103n\u0103toas\u0103 \u0219i potrivit\u0103. \u00cen momentul de fa\u021b\u0103, toate mecanismele economice sunt regresive, ceea ce creeaz\u0103 o combina\u021bie toxic\u0103 \u0219i disfunc\u021bional\u0103, motiv pentru care este necesar s\u0103 contrabalansezi politica prociclic\u0103 cu una contraciclic\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Impozitarea progresiv\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 acopere doar veniturile salariale sau ar trebui s\u0103 cuprind\u0103 \u0219i capitalul?<\/p>\n

Impozitarea progresiv\u0103 trebuie g\u00e2ndit\u0103 \u00een func\u021bie de priorit\u0103\u021bile societ\u0103\u021bii, iar aceste priorit\u0103\u021bi se manifest\u0103 cel mai bine prin deductibilit\u0103\u021bi, pentru c\u0103 tocmai acolo se poate face diferen\u021ba. De exemplu, dac\u0103 dorim s\u0103 deducem pierderile, a\u0219a cum se f\u0103cea p\u00e2n\u0103 acum c\u00e2\u021biva ani, dar care a fost modificat \u00een mod nepotrivit sub pretextul unor taxe mai mici pe capital, elimin\u00e2ndu-se posibilitatea report\u0103rii pierderilor \u00een anii urm\u0103tori, atunci trebuie s\u0103 ac\u021bion\u0103m din nou prin deductibilitate. \u00cen acela\u0219i sens, a\u0219 deduce pierderile pentru capital, iar pentru clasa mijlocie mai pu\u021bin \u00eenst\u0103rit\u0103 a\u0219 deduce cheltuielile cu ipotecile \u0219i cele legate de cre\u0219terea copiilor. Prin urmare, a\u0219 ac\u021biona pe dou\u0103 direc\u021bii: \u00een primul r\u00e2nd, prin deduceri, iar \u00een al doilea r\u00e2nd, printr-o impozitare progresiv\u0103, care mi se pare absolut necesar\u0103. \u00cen acest moment, societatea este regresiv\u0103 din toate punctele de vedere, impozitarea este mai mult \u00eenclinat\u0103 pe umerii celor s\u0103raci, de aceea este nevoie de un stimulent economic, care este, de fapt, foarte simplu. Din p\u0103cate, dac\u0103 te love\u0219ti de zidul rigid al dogmelor politice, nu mai po\u021bi avansa cu aceast\u0103 idee, care nu este deloc una controversat\u0103 sau radical\u0103, ci dimpotriv\u0103, extrem de modern\u0103, iar \u00een economia comportamental\u0103 este deja acceptat\u0103 nu ca un subiect de dezbatere, ci ca o certitudine.<\/p>\n

\u00cemp\u0103r\u021bi\u021bi vina \u00eentre politicieni, dar cum ne putem explica \u0219i reticen\u021ba multina\u021bionalelor cu privire la impozitarea progresiv\u0103, \u00een condi\u021bii \u00een care companiile din Occident cu subsidiare \u00een Rom\u00e2nia vin deja din state cu acest sistem?<\/p>\n

Observa\u021bia dumneavoastr\u0103 este corect\u0103, pe mine m\u0103 surprind, de asemenea, analizele oarecum partinice de la televizor pe aceast\u0103 tem\u0103, deoarece se contureaz\u0103 aproape un consens \u00een favoarea cotei unice, de\u0219i este evident c\u0103 acest sistem nu este sustenabil. \u00cen aceste condi\u021bii, am mai propus chiar dublarea sau triplarea cotei unice, \u00eens\u0103 economia nu mai dispune \u00een prezent de resursele necesare pentru o asemenea \u00een\u0103sprire fiscal\u0103, dat fiind c\u0103 ne confrunt\u0103m deja cu un oboseal\u0103 fiscal\u0103 din care nu putem ie\u0219i dec\u00e2t prin introducerea unei impozit\u0103ri progresive. Este vorba despre o obstina\u021bie tipic politicianist\u0103, pe care noi, \u00een economia comportamental\u0103, o numim costuri scufundate, adic\u0103 refuzul de a recunoa\u0219te o eroare de logic\u0103 \u0219i de pozi\u021bionare chiar \u0219i atunci c\u00e2nd eviden\u021ba este c\u00e2t se poate de clar\u0103, iar oamenii procedeaz\u0103 astfel pentru a-\u0219i men\u021bine consonan\u021ba cognitiv\u0103 \u0219i aparen\u021ba de respectabilitate, ceea ce este, de fapt, o gre\u0219eal\u0103. Cred c\u0103 adev\u0103rata for\u021b\u0103 a unei na\u021biuni sau a unui analist economic const\u0103 \u00een capacitatea de a-\u0219i corecta propriile erori atunci c\u00e2nd realitatea le contrazice \u00een mod evident. \u00cen prezent, nu mai avem posibilitatea de a ac\u021biona energic sau de a ne baza pe capacitatea de \u00eendatorare a statului pentru a stimula industriile cheie \u0219i pentru a orienta cheltuiala deficitului \u0219i \u00een favoarea sectorului privat, deoarece toate aceste op\u021biuni au disp\u0103rut, \u00eentruc\u00e2t am dep\u0103\u0219it deja nivelul de supra\u00eendatorare.<\/p>\n

Bolojan respinge cota progresiv\u0103, invocat\u0103 de Is\u0103rescu: \u201eNu e de actualitate\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

La sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului, estimez c\u0103 datoria public\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei va ajunge la 65-68%, ceea ce este un nivel extrem de ridicat, mai ales c\u0103 \u021bara noastr\u0103 se \u00eemprumut\u0103 la o dob\u00e2nd\u0103 de 2,5 ori mai mare dec\u00e2t media european\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een realitate, povara datoriei este \u0219i mai grea. De aceea, este necesar s\u0103 reducem rapid deficitul, iar acest lucru este un pas important pentru a dep\u0103\u0219i actualele evalu\u0103ri de rating, fiind optimist c\u0103 vom reu\u0219i, dar pre\u021bul acestei reduceri va fi cre\u0219terea datoriei, care, probabil, se va situa \u00een jurul valorii de 68% din PIB, corespunz\u0103toare unui deficit de 6,2%. Astfel, acesta este pre\u021bul pl\u0103tit pentru men\u021binerea ratingului, iar dac\u0103 este sau nu un lucru bun, r\u0103m\u00e2ne de v\u0103zut, pentru c\u0103 nimic nu este gratuit \u00een economie, iar datoria public\u0103 va cre\u0219te mai mult dec\u00e2t estimeaz\u0103 oficialit\u0103\u021bile, conform calculelor mele. Spre deosebire de aceste estim\u0103ri, eu iau \u00een calcul c\u0103, \u00een toamn\u0103, costurile energetice vor fi extrem de ridicate, ceea ce va \u00eencetini brusc economia \u0219i va majora considerabil costurile de finan\u021bare, chiar dac\u0103, deocamdat\u0103, ne men\u021binem ratingul, iar aceast\u0103 combina\u021bie de factori poate crea o furtun\u0103 perfect\u0103, care va duce la o cre\u0219tere semnificativ\u0103 at\u00e2t a costurilor de finan\u021bare, c\u00e2t \u0219i a datoriei publice.<\/p>\n

Cum va ar\u0103ta deficitul \u00een 2027 dac\u0103 noi ne vom \u00eemprumuta at\u00e2t de mult p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului curent, la dob\u00e2nzi mai ridicate dec\u00e2t \u021b\u0103ri care nu fac parte din Uniunea European\u0103, precum Serbia?<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Cam asta \u00eencerc s\u0103 explic, faptul c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia se afl\u0103 \u00eentr-o pierdere net\u0103 de sustenabilitate, iar aceast\u0103 problem\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219e\u0219te simpla reducere a deficitului, care ne ajut\u0103 doar la men\u021binerea ratingului. De fapt, abordarea Guvernului Bolojan este gre\u0219it\u0103 pe termen lung, deoarece, pentru a salva ratingul, intr\u0103m \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 a datoriei publice care devine nesustenabil\u0103, iar acesta a fost singurul lucru pe care l-au putut face, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care era obligatoriu s\u0103 p\u0103str\u0103m ratingul. Cu toate acestea, reducerea deficitului trebuia s\u0103 fie sustenabil\u0103, dar ceea ce au f\u0103cut ei nu este, pentru c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 o pierdere net\u0103 de sustenabilitate de aproximativ 7,5% \u00een medie \u00een ultimii trei ani, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 am pierdut, \u00een acest interval, aproape un sfert din puterea de cump\u0103rare general\u0103 a economiei, din prosperitate \u0219i din averea na\u021bional\u0103, iar aceast\u0103 pierdere este extrem de semnificativ\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pierderea de sustenabilitate despre care vorbesc \u00eenseamn\u0103, \u00een fapt, c\u0103 aliment\u0103m o cre\u0219tere economic\u0103 negativ\u0103, de minus 1%, cu un cost de aproximativ 7%, ceea ce dovede\u0219te \u00een mod clar c\u0103 exist\u0103 o disfunc\u021bionalitate profund\u0103 \u00een economie. Costurile sunt extrem de mari \u00een anumite sectoare, iar lipsa de restructurare a aparatului administrativ devine vizibil\u0103 mai ales \u00een momentele critice, dar cred c\u0103 aceast\u0103 restructurare nu se va realiza niciodat\u0103, pentru c\u0103, de\u0219i guvernul a avut toate argumentele \u0219i ocaziile s\u0103 reduc\u0103 drastic cheltuielile de func\u021bionare ale statului, nu a f\u0103cut-o nici m\u0103car atunci c\u00e2nd eviden\u021ba o cerea. Astfel, acest guvern, \u00een ciuda importan\u021bei politice de acum un an \u0219i a sprijinului european de care a beneficiat, s-a comportat ca un student care \u00eenva\u021b\u0103 doar pentru a ob\u021bine o not\u0103 de trecere, \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu m\u0103surile u\u0219oare \u0219i cu cele care afecteaz\u0103 popula\u021bia, \u00een loc s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 cu propria sa reform\u0103, ceea ce demonstreaz\u0103 c\u0103 probabil nu vom reu\u0219i s\u0103 facem restructurarea necesar\u0103 a economiei.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Statul se \u201e\u00eengra\u0219\u0103\u201d din nou? Cum a evoluat num\u0103rul bugetarilor sub Cabinetul Bolojan <\/a><\/p>\n

F\u0103r\u0103 trecerea la o impozitare progresiv\u0103 \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 restructurarea aparatului administrativ putem trece peste anii urm\u0103tori?<\/p>\n

Nici vorb\u0103, mul\u021bumesc pentru c\u0103 a\u021bi spus pe scurt ceea ce am \u00eencercat s\u0103 explic \u00een termeni mai tehnici. A\u0219adar, f\u0103r\u0103 a face ceea ce este dificil, nimic nu poate progresa, iar politicienii pretind adesea c\u0103 se pot ob\u021bine rezultate f\u0103r\u0103 sacrificii, \u00eens\u0103, din p\u0103cate, consolidarea fiscal\u0103 a fost suportat\u0103 exclusiv de jum\u0103tatea clasei de mijloc \u0219i de cei s\u0103raci. Nu se poate continua acela\u0219i model economic plas\u00e2nd toat\u0103 povara pe umerii acestor oameni, pentru c\u0103, mai devreme sau mai t\u00e2rziu, va veni momentul scaden\u021bei politice, iar acel punct de inflexiune \u00een care clasa s\u0103r\u0103cit\u0103 dramatic \u00ee\u0219i va cere drepturile va anula toate politicile nepotrivite de p\u00e2n\u0103 atunci. Aceasta este, de fapt, logica argumentului meu: trebuie s\u0103 fii complet nep\u0103s\u0103tor ca s\u0103 crezi c\u0103 gre\u0219elile de politic\u0103 nu vor fi corectate \u00eentr-o zi, fie de pia\u021ba financiar\u0103, prin dob\u00e2nzi mai mari, fie de pia\u021ba politic\u0103, prin vot negativ.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u00cen condi\u021biile acestea, crede\u021bi c\u0103 interven\u021bia FMI ar fi oportun\u0103? Cele dou\u0103 reforme propuse de dumneavoastr\u0103 fac parte de ani buni din setul lor de recomand\u0103ri pentru \u021bara noastr\u0103.<\/p>\n

Obligatoriu \u0219i da, ar tempera un pic. Crede\u021bi c\u0103 FMI-ul \u00eei cite\u0219te pe economi\u0219tii \u0103ia care fac consultan\u021b\u0103 politic\u0103 \u0219i vin cu analize partinice la televizor? Ne cite\u0219te pe noi, cei care suntem cei mai neutri \u0219i bine inten\u021biona\u021bi. Pe noi ne cite\u0219te FMI-ul, c\u0103 vorbim despre economie comportamental\u0103 calibrat\u0103 cu cifre \u0219i cu sustenabilitate, \u0219i nu cu politicianism din \u0103sta ieftin.<\/p>\n

Un exemplu este proiectul legii salariz\u0103rii, care ar fi putut fi redactat mai bine chiar \u0219i de ChatGPT dec\u00e2t de consultan\u021bii angaja\u021bi de Guvern; din curiozitate, am testat acest lucru \u0219i robo\u021bii au generat o lege superioar\u0103 celei oficiale.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Prin urmare, concluzia mea este c\u0103 nu ne afl\u0103m \u00eentr-o simpl\u0103 criz\u0103, ci suntem aproape de colaps, pentru c\u0103 singurele solu\u021bii vizibile sunt extrem de dureroase \u0219i implic\u0103 management extern, FMI, contrac\u021bie economic\u0103 \u0219i infla\u021bie, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 vom intra \u00eentr-un fel de purgatoriu, iar acesta este pre\u021bul pe care \u00eel pl\u0103tim pentru cei 10-15 ani de politici macroeconomice total nepotrivite.<\/p>\n

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