{"id":243574,"date":"2026-07-29T04:55:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T04:55:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/243574\/"},"modified":"2026-07-29T04:55:13","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T04:55:13","slug":"cat-mai-poate-rezista-ucraina-cartile-nu-mai-sunt-doar-la-putin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/243574\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e2t mai poate rezista Ucraina? \u201eC\u0103r\u021bile nu mai sunt doar la Putin\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ucraina love\u0219te ad\u00e2nc pe teritoriul rus, dar sufer\u0103 din cauza divergen\u021belor strategice de la Kiev. Generalii Dorin Toma \u0219i Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu explic\u0103, \u00eentr-o analiz\u0103 pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, ce perspective au ucrainenii \u0219i c\u00e2t poate rezista frontul.<\/p>\n

\"Ucrainenii <\/p>\n

Solda\u021bi ucraineni \u00een Bahmut. FOTO: Profimedia <\/p>\n

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Ucrainenii fac fa\u021b\u0103 atacurilor Rusiei \u0219i reu\u0219esc chiar s\u0103
\nloveasc\u0103 \u00een ad\u00e2ncime, inclusiv \u021binte importante aflate la mii de
\nkilometri pe teritoriul statului agresor. R\u0103zboiul este \u00eens\u0103 greu
\n\u0219i chiar dac\u0103 Ucraina este ajutat\u0103 cu sute de miliarde de euro \u0219i cu arme
\nde top de alia\u021bii europeni, ru\u0219ii au o serie de avantaje, de la
\ncele ale resursei umane \u0219i p\u00e2n\u0103 la resursele militare. Ce \u00eei
\nlipse\u0219te Ucrainei \u00eenc\u0103 \u0219i ce perspective are, dar \u0219i ce teorii
\nale victoriei exist\u0103 pentru Kiev explic\u0103, \u00eentr-o analiz\u0103 pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, doi generali rom\u00e2ni care au de\u021binut func\u021bii importante \u00een cadrul NATO.<\/p>\n

Dilema strategic\u0103 de la Kiev <\/p>\n

Generalul \u00een rezerv\u0103 Dorin Toma, fost comandant al
\nComandamentului Diviziei Multina\u021bionale Sud-Est a NATO \u00een perioada
\n2022-2025, consider\u0103 c\u0103 ucrainenii lupt\u0103 cu eroism \u00een fa\u021ba unui
\ninamic care are resurse cu mult mai mari, \u0219i reu\u0219esc s\u0103 \u021bin\u0103
\nfrontul. Exist\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 o problem\u0103. La nivelul cel mai \u00eenalt,
\noficialii de la Kiev nu au ajuns la un consens \u00een privin\u021ba strategiei pentru
\nperioada urm\u0103toare. De altfel, aceste ne\u00een\u021belegeri nu au r\u0103mas
\nf\u0103r\u0103 rezultat. Pre\u0219edintele Volodimir Zelenski a decis zilele
\ntrecute s\u0103-i demit\u0103 pe ministrul Ap\u0103r\u0103rii \u0219i pe \u0219eful armatei
\nucrainene, tocmai din cauza unor ne\u00een\u021belegeri.<\/p>\n

\u201eEu cred c\u0103 nu au o strategie foarte clar\u0103 ucrainenii. \u0218i de
\naici a pornit discu\u021bia, adic\u0103 \u00eentre fostul ministru al Ap\u0103r\u0103rii,
\nFedorov, fostul \u0219ef al armatei, generalul S\u00eerski. \u0218i nu putem s\u0103 nu ne \u00eentreb\u0103m ce vor de fapt s\u0103
\nob\u021bin\u0103? Au ob\u021binut oarecum ini\u021biativa loviturilor \u00een ad\u00e2ncime cu izolarea logistic\u0103 a
\nCrimeei, ac\u021biunile din Marea Azov \u0219i a\u0219a mai departe, \u00een Marea
\nNeagr\u0103. Dar care este obiectivul? Care este strategia? Ce \u00ee\u021bi
\npropui? \u00ce\u021bi propui s\u0103 men\u021bii acest front \u0219i s\u0103-l obose\u0219ti pe
\nPutin \u0219i Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 negocierile, s\u0103 vin\u0103 la
\nmasa negocierilor pentru un armisti\u021biu \u0219i poate ulterior pentru
\npace? Sau \u00ee\u021bi propui s\u0103 creezi anumite condi\u021bii pentru ca armata
\nucrainean\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eencerce s\u0103 desf\u0103\u0219oare ni\u0219te ac\u021biuni ofensive
\npentru a recupera o parte din teritoriu? Astea sunt \u00eentreb\u0103rile la
\ncare ar trebui ei s\u0103-\u0219i r\u0103spund\u0103\u201d, spune generalul Toma.<\/p>\n

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Divergen\u021be la v\u00e2rful armatei ucrainene <\/p>\n

Este de presupus c\u0103 \u00een continuare exist\u0103 mai multe curente de
\nopinie \u00een r\u00e2ndul ofi\u021berilor importan\u021bi ucraineni.<\/p>\n

\u201eDepinde dac\u0103 sunt strategii care necesit\u0103 resurse diferite,
\naltfel de resurse, altfel de ac\u021biuni pe care trebuie s\u0103 le
\nplanifici, se schimb\u0103 fundamental situa\u021bia. \u0218i dac\u0103 nu e \u00een
\nmintea lor clar \u0219i nu \u0219tiu foarte clar efectiv care este starea
\nfinal\u0103 pe care \u0219i-o doresc, care este strategia, normal c\u0103 apar
\ndiferen\u021be de viziune. S\u00eerski zicea: \u201eDomnule, vreau mai mul\u021bi
\noameni!\u201d, pentru c\u0103 probabil avea \u00een vedere ca la un moment dat
\ns\u0103 aib\u0103 capacitatea de a desf\u0103\u0219ura ni\u0219te ac\u021biuni ofensive
\npentru a recupera parte din teritoriu. Cel\u0103lalt spunea: \u201eNu,
\ndomnule, avem nevoie de tehnologie s\u0103 men\u021binem aliniamentul de
\ncontact.\u201d Ok, \u00eel men\u021bii, dar c\u00e2t \u00eel men\u021bii? P\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd? P\u00e2n\u0103
\nc\u00e2nd crezi tu c\u0103 \u00eel vei convinge pe Putin s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103
\nnegocierile de pace? Dar armisti\u021biu, c\u0103 pacea e poveste…\u201d, mai spune generalul.<\/p>\n

Scenariul unei ofensive de succes <\/p>\n

\u00cen opinia generalului Dorin Toma, armata ucrainean\u0103 este
\ncapabil\u0103 s\u0103 le cauzeze multe probleme ru\u0219ilor. Totu\u0219i, \u00een clipa
\nde fa\u021b\u0103 nu este clar cum ar putea ob\u021bine o victorie total\u0103, care
\nar implica, \u00een principiu, alungarea ru\u0219ilor \u0219i revenirea la
\ngrani\u021bele dinainte de 2014, anul \u00een care Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103 a r\u0103pit
\nPeninsula Crimeea.<\/p>\n

\u201ePe anumite direc\u021bii, armata ucrainean\u0103 poate desf\u0103\u0219ur\u0103 unele ac\u021biuni ofensive. Ar putea \u00een anumite condi\u021bii desf\u0103\u0219ura
\nac\u021biuni ofensive cu obiectiv limitat. Adic\u0103 s\u0103 recupereze un
\nteritoriu de c\u00e2teva sute de kilometri p\u0103tra\u021bi. Ar \u00eensemna s\u0103
\nrealizeze o p\u0103trundere, s\u0103 spunem, de 20-30 de kilometri. Ceea ce
\n\u00een condi\u021biile actuale, la modul cum stagneaz\u0103, cum sunt lucrurile pe
\naliniamentul de contact, este deja ceva extraordinar. \u0218i este un
\nsemnal puternic. Pentru c\u0103 nu \u0219tii ce se poate \u00eent\u00e2mpla dup\u0103 aceea.
\nAdic\u0103 poate s\u0103 colapseze tot frontul. Nu \u0219tii exact care
\neste moralul armatei ruse, al comandan\u021bilor ru\u0219i. Pentru c\u0103 \u0219i
\nmoralul este foarte important \u0219i mai nimeni nu-l ia \u00een considerare. \u0218i o serie de victorii ucrainene, chiar dac\u0103 nu cedeaz\u0103 tot frontul, pot \u00eensemna mult. \u0218i ar putea s\u0103 fie un semnal foarte clar pentru conducerea politic\u0103 a
\nFedera\u021biei Ruse c\u0103 este \u00eentr-adev\u0103r timpul s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 discu\u021biile pentru un armisti\u021biu \u0219i chiar eventualele negocieri de pace\u201d, explic\u0103 generalul
\nDorin Toma.<\/p>\n

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Una dintre marile probleme ale armatei ucrainene a fost faptul c\u0103,
\np\u00e2n\u0103 acum, de\u0219i to\u021bi \u0219efii militari s-au pus de acord c\u0103 Rusia
\ntrebuie \u00eenfr\u00e2nt\u0103, nu au reu\u0219it s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la un numitor comun cu
\nprivire la modul \u00een care se poate face acest lucru.<\/p>\n

\u201eEu nu am \u00een\u021beles exact care este strategia. Uit\u00e2ndu-m\u0103 la
\ncei doi de\u021bin\u0103tori de decizie, ministrul \u0219i \u0219eful armatei, adic\u0103
\nfostul ministru \u0219i fostul comandant al armatei, mi s-a p\u0103rut c\u0103 au
\nviziuni diferite asupra modului cum trebuie purtat r\u0103zboiul \u0219i ce
\nobiective ar trebui \u00eendeplinite, atinse. Nu cred c\u0103 men\u021binerea
\naliniamentului a\u0219a cum este el acum \u00eel va convinge \u00een termen scurt
\npe Putin s\u0103 fie de acord s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 discu\u021bii, negocieri pentru
\n\u00eencheierea unui armisti\u021biu. C\u00e2nd zic termen scurt, m\u0103 g\u00e2ndesc la
\nanul acesta. Deci e nevoie de mai mult\u201d, sus\u021bine generalul.<\/p>\n

Marea \u00eencercare: iarna \u0219i criza energetic\u0103 <\/p>\n

Sezonul rece va veni cu alte provoc\u0103ri pentru Ucraina, care are
\ndeja mare parte din infrastructur\u0103, inclusiv cea energetic\u0103, \u00een
\nruine. Ucraina supravie\u021buie\u0219te practic doar datorit\u0103 sutelor de
\nmiliarde de euro care vin de la Bruxelles \u0219i de la \u021b\u0103rile
\ndonatoare, dar chiar \u0219i a\u0219a bombele \u0219i rachetele ruse\u0219ti cauzeaz\u0103 tot mai mari probleme.<\/p>\n

\u201eMai sunt c\u00e2teva luni \u0219i se intr\u0103 iar \u00een sezonul rece.
\nKievul \u0219i alte importante ora\u0219e ucrainene vor fi din nou supuse
\npresiunilor atacurilor ruse\u0219ti, infrastructura nu \u0219tim c\u00e2t va mai
\nrezista, mai ales cea energetic\u0103. S-ar putea ca rezilien\u021ba
\npopula\u021biei s\u0103 scad\u0103, suportul popula\u021biei s\u0103 nu mai fie acela\u0219i. Deja exist\u0103 o anumit\u0103 anxietate la nivelul popula\u021biei dup\u0103
\nat\u00e2\u021bia ani. \u0218i nu \u0219tim cum va ie\u0219i Ucraina din iarna anului
\nviitor. Nu vorbim neap\u0103rat de front, vorbesc de popula\u021bie, de
\nrezilien\u021ba popula\u021biei, moralul popula\u021biei. Iarna trecut\u0103 a fost
\nfoarte grea pentru Kiev \u00een special, dar nu numai. A\u0219a c\u0103 Ucraina
\ntrebuie s\u0103 profite de orice mic avantaj \u0219i s\u0103-l foloseasc\u0103\u201d,
\n\u00eencheie generalul Dorin Toma.<\/p>\n

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Generalul \u00een rezerv\u0103 Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu a reprezentat Rom\u00e2nia
\nla Comandamentul NATO de la Bruxelles \u015fi a fost \u015fef al Brig\u0103zii
\nMultina\u021bionale din Sud-Estul Europei.<\/a> El vorbe\u0219te despre situa\u021bia
\nde pe front \u0219i despre perspective. Ru\u0219ii, spune el, au f\u0103cut
\nfoarte pu\u021bine progrese raportat la eforturile f\u0103cute \u0219i num\u0103rul
\nmare de victime.<\/p>\n

R\u0103zboiul de uzur\u0103 \u0219i centura de fort\u0103re\u021be <\/p>\n

\u201eSuntem la jum\u0103tatea anului 2026 \u0219i ru\u0219ii nu au reu\u0219it dec\u00e2t
\ns\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 un singur ora\u0219. Nu au reu\u0219it s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 \u00een totalitate Kupianskul,
\nnu au reu\u0219it s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 Lymanul. Ca atare, \u00eentr-o estimare
\nrelativ\u0103, preg\u0103tirea pentru ap\u0103rare \u0219i continuarea ap\u0103r\u0103rii \u00een
\ncentura fort\u0103re\u021bei poate s\u0103 \u00eensemne un an, peste un an de
\nrezisten\u021b\u0103 \u00een r\u0103zboiul de ap\u0103rare al Ucrainei. Abia atunci \u0219i-ar
\nrealiza scopurile, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care Ucraina \u0219i-ar continua
\nac\u021biunile de lovire \u00een ad\u00e2ncime a sistemului energetic, \u00een mod
\ndeosebit a sistemului de produc\u021bie \u0219i transport al combustibililor
\ndin Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103. Pentru c\u0103 au creat o criz\u0103, iar lovind \u00een
\ncontinuare, criza se poate accentua\u201d, spune generalul B\u0103l\u0103ceanu.<\/p>\n

Ce se poate \u00eent\u00e2mpla pe front dup\u0103 schimbarea \u0219efului armatei ucraineane. \u201eSunt momente extrem de vulnerabile\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

Perspectivele ca ru\u0219ii s\u0103-\u0219i ating\u0103 obiectivele sunt neclare.
\nGeneralul Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu are \u00eendoieli c\u0103 armata Federa\u021biei
\nRuse va reu\u0219i \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni ceea ce nu a fost capabil\u0103 s\u0103
\nfac\u0103 \u00een at\u00e2t de mult timp. Iar at\u00e2t timp c\u00e2t centura de
\nfort\u0103re\u021be ucrainene rezist\u0103, va rezista \u0219i Ucraina. \u00cen acest
\ncontext, un eventual acord de pace \u00een acest an sau chiar un
\narmisti\u021biu ar fi mai degrab\u0103 improbabil, crede generalul B\u0103l\u0103ceanu.<\/p>\n

\u201eAltfel, dac\u0103 va fi ca aceast\u0103 centur\u0103 de fort\u0103re\u021be s\u0103
\npice p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul acestui an, va \u00eensemna c\u0103 \u0219i-a realizat
\nscopurile Putin \u0219i va negocia un eventual armisti\u021biu \u0219i o \u00eencetare
\na focului. \u00cemi este greu s\u0103 cred c\u0103 vom avea un acord de pace \u00een
\nUcraina \u00een condi\u021bii extrem de favorabile. Adic\u0103 s\u0103 rezi\u0219ti o
\nperioad\u0103 \u00eendelungat\u0103 \u00een ap\u0103rarea unor ora\u0219e care erau mai
\nizolate dec\u00e2t sunt cele trei ora\u0219e aproape \u00eengem\u0103nate… Vorbesc
\nde rezisten\u021ba \u00een Bahmut, vorbesc de rezisten\u021ba \u00een Pokrovsk,
\nvorbesc de rezisten\u021ba \u00een Kostiantynivka. \u0218i acum, ca ru\u0219ii s\u0103
\nreu\u0219easc\u0103 s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 alte trei ora\u0219e \u00een cele \u0219ase
\nluni ale acestui an, ar \u00eensemna c\u0103 Ucraina a pierdut destul de
\nmult. S\u0103 sper\u0103m \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 nu vom asista la un asemenea moment,
\ncare ar avea imaginea unui dezastru din punct de vedere al ap\u0103r\u0103rii
\nat\u00e2t de pline de succes a ucrainenilor de p\u00e2n\u0103 acum\u201d, puncteaz\u0103
\ngeneralul Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu.<\/p>\n

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Miza b\u0103t\u0103liei pentru Donbas <\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 ru\u0219ii ar reu\u0219i totu\u0219i s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 aceste
\nora\u0219e-fort\u0103re\u021be, perspectivele ucrainenilor ar deveni mai degrab\u0103
\nsumbre.<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00cen momentul \u00een care ei cuceresc, din situa\u021bia respectiv\u0103
\n\u00ee\u0219i pot permite s\u0103 amenin\u021be cu continuarea ofensivei \u00eenspre
\npartea de vest a Ucrainei \u0219i s\u0103 cear\u0103 ca \u00eencetarea focului \u0219i a
\nr\u0103zboiului s\u0103 se realizeze \u00een condi\u021biile lor. Iar ru\u0219ii ar spune:
\n\u201eNe-am realizat scopurile cuceririlor teritoriale\u201d, \u0219i m\u0103 refer
\nla zona Donbasului, pentru c\u0103 nu \u0219tiu ce are \u00een cap Putin cu
\nprivire la celelalte zone. M\u0103 refer la Harkov, m\u0103 refer la
\nDnipropetrovsk \u0219i Zaporojie. Dar cucerirea Donbasului este un scop
\npe care \u0219i l-au propus ru\u0219ii. Dac\u0103 ar realiza acest lucru, ar
\n\u00eensemna c\u0103 armata ucrainean\u0103 nu mai are capacitatea de ap\u0103rare pe
\ncare a avut-o p\u00e2n\u0103 acum: a piere trei ora\u0219e \u00eentr-un timp
\nrelativ scurt, \u00eentr-o jum\u0103tate de an, ar fi o lovitur\u0103 grea pe care ar \u00eencasa-o. Sper\u0103m s\u0103 nu se \u00eent\u00e2mple asta\u201d, explic\u0103 generalul.<\/p>\n

Din acel moment, Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103 ar putea s\u0103 dicteze condi\u021biile,
\niar acestea ar fi dintre cele mai aspre. \u00cen plus, armata rus\u0103 ar
\navea calea deschis\u0103 spre direc\u021bii de atac care ar dezechilibra \u0219i
\nmai mult ap\u0103rarea ucrainean\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eNu m\u0103 refer neap\u0103rat la o redeschidere a ofensivei \u00eenspre
\nKiev, \u00eens\u0103 poate s\u0103 apar\u0103 dezvoltarea ofensivei \u00eenspre
\nZaporojie, \u00eenspre Dnipropetrovsk. \u0218i atunci o bun\u0103 parte din estul
\nUcrainei ar fi sub control rusesc. Ar fi o situa\u021bie dramatic\u0103
\npentru c\u0103 vorbim de condi\u021bii maximaliste pe care le impun ru\u0219ii \u0219i
\ncare \u00eenseamn\u0103 capitularea militar\u0103, politic\u0103 \u0219i economic\u0103 a
\nUcrainei\u201d, mai spune generalul.<\/p>\n

Cum se define\u0219te victoria Ucrainei <\/p>\n

O \u00eentrebare la care cu greu poate fi g\u0103sit un r\u0103spuns ar fi
\ncare este un orizont de timp realist pentru rezisten\u021ba ucrainean\u0103
\n\u00een aceast\u0103 centur\u0103 fortificat\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eS\u0103 plec\u0103m de la ideea c\u0103 centura fort\u0103re\u021bei ar trebui s\u0103
\nreziste cel pu\u021bin un an. Adic\u0103 s\u0103 treac\u0103 \u0219i iarna urm\u0103toare, s\u0103
\nreziste Ucraina din punct de vedere al asigur\u0103rii resurselor
\nenergetice, pentru c\u0103 va fi o iarn\u0103 foarte grea. Ru\u0219ii vor lovi
\nsistemul energetic ucrainean \u0219i mai intens. \u0218i atunci ar \u00eensemna
\nc\u0103, \u00een condi\u021biile continu\u0103rii loviturilor asupra Federa\u021biei Ruse
\n\u0219i ale accentu\u0103rii crizei combustibilului, ambele p\u0103r\u021bi ar avea
\ncapacitatea de continuare a r\u0103zboiului, ambele p\u0103r\u021bi ar avea
\ncapacitatea de a avea ini\u021biativa, \u0219i de aici ideea c\u0103 se poate
\najunge la o \u00eencetare a focului \u00een ni\u0219te condi\u021bii pe care trebuie
\ns\u0103 le negociezi. Altfel, vom asista la propuneri de \u00eencetare a
\nfocului din partea Federa\u021biei Ruse cu condi\u021bii impuse \u0219i deloc
\nnegociate\u201d, adaug\u0103 el.<\/p>\n

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\u00cen principiu, for\u021bele ucrainene ar fi \u00eendrept\u0103\u021bite s\u0103 spere
\nc\u0103 vor rezista \u00eenc\u0103 cel pu\u021bin un an. Acest lucru ar echivala,
\ndintr-o anumit\u0103 perspectiv\u0103, cu o victorie a Ucrainei.<\/p>\n

\u201eDac\u0103 se reu\u0219e\u0219te men\u021binerea unor localit\u0103\u021bi care deschid
\ndirec\u021bii de ofensiv\u0103 asupra centurii fort\u0103re\u021bei, m\u0103 refer \u00een
\nmod deosebit la Lyman, \u0219i dac\u0103 se va reu\u0219i o rotire a for\u021belor \u0219i
\no cre\u0219tere a efectivelor care sunt mobilizate pentru r\u0103zboi, se poate rezista \u0219i mai bine de un
\nan de zile. Dac\u0103 rezist\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 un an \u00een centura fort\u0103re\u021bei,
\ndac\u0103 love\u0219te \u00een continuare \u00een ad\u00e2ncimea teritoriului Federa\u021biei
\nRuse \u0219i dac\u0103 sprijinul popula\u021biei r\u0103m\u00e2ne tot at\u00e2t de
\nconsecvent, dincolo de condi\u021biile din ce \u00een ce mai dificile, ar \u00eensemna
\nc\u0103 Ucraina este c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103toare. Pentru c\u0103 atunci \u0219i administra\u021bia
\namerican\u0103 vede c\u0103 nu mai sunt c\u0103r\u021bile doar la Putin, a\u0219a cum \u00eei
\nspunea Trump lui Zelenski… C\u0103r\u021bile ar fi \u0219i la Zelenski,
\nc\u0103r\u021bile ar fi \u0219i la poporul \u0219i armata ucrainean\u0103\u201d, subliniaz\u0103
\ngeneralul Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu.<\/p>\n

Dronele dobor\u00e2te \u00een ultimele zile, semne ale unui iminent atac rusesc? Verdictul exper\u021bilor <\/a><\/p>\n

Pe de alt\u0103 parte, \u00een scenariul \u00een care frontul se stabilizeaz\u0103,
\ndar teritoriile ocupate nu sunt eliberate, este complicat de spus \u00een
\nce m\u0103sur\u0103 va fi o victorie, fie \u0219i par\u021bial\u0103, pentru Ucraina. De
\naltfel, nu este evident nici cum se define\u0219te conceptul de
\n\u201evictorie\u201d \u00een etapa actual\u0103 a r\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n

\u201eAici avem \u00eentr-adev\u0103r de discutat teoria victoriei: ce
\n\u00eenseamn\u0103 o victorie pentru Ucraina? Pe undeva, Mihailo Drapat\u00eei
\nvorbe\u0219te \u0219i de capacitatea ofensiv\u0103 a armatei ucrainene, dar am
\nni\u0219te semne de \u00eentrebare destul de serioase. Pentru c\u0103 acea
\ncontraofensiv\u0103 care a fost oprit\u0103 pe ad\u00e2ncimi foarte mici, de 5-10
\nkilometri, a \u00eensemnat o dotare cu echipamente militare inclusiv din
\nOccident, e adev\u0103rat, o dotare subdimensionat\u0103 numeric \u0219i extrem
\nde divers\u0103, foarte greu de gestionat din punct de vedere al
\nlogisticii\u201d, mai afirm\u0103 el.<\/p>\n

\u00cen acest moment, Ucraina nu poate s\u0103-\u0219i recupereze \u00een totalitate teritoriile
\npierdute, \u00eens\u0103 poate s\u0103 rec\u00e2\u0219tige mici por\u021biuni din ele.<\/p>\n

\u201eNu putem s\u0103 vorbim de o recuperare de teritorii, am exagera.
\n\u00cen schimb, am putea vorbi de o ap\u0103rare activ\u0103 care \u00eenseamn\u0103 \u0219i
\nexecutare de contraatacuri pe direc\u021biile favorabile. Cum \u0219i acum am
\nasistat. Generalul S\u00eerski a reu\u0219it, prin deciziile sale \u0219i prin eroismul solda\u021bilor
\nde la fa\u021ba locului, s\u0103 recucereasc\u0103 teritorii \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 \u00eentre cele dou\u0103 oblasturi, \u00eentre
\nZaporojie \u0219i Dnipropetrovsk. Ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 un succes, creeaz\u0103
\nun anumit echilibru. E adev\u0103rat, la r\u00e2ndul lor ru\u0219ii reu\u0219esc s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 Kostiantynivka,
\ndar \u00een acela\u0219i timp pierd o parte din teritoriul care era sub
\nocupa\u021bia lor. Ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 ap\u0103rarea ucrainean\u0103 este stabil\u0103, este
\nactiv\u0103 \u0219i ofer\u0103 perspectiva solidit\u0103\u021bii acestei ap\u0103r\u0103ri pe o
\nperioad\u0103 \u00eendelungat\u0103 sau chiar foarte \u00eendelungat\u0103.\u201d<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Evolu\u021bia frontului pe termen scurt <\/p>\n

Schimbarea conducerii militare la nivel \u00eenalt creeaz\u0103 inevitabil
\no fereastr\u0103 de vulnerabilitate. Acum, crede generalul, ne putem
\na\u0219tepta ca aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103 critic\u0103 de tranzi\u021bie s\u0103 dureze
\nc\u00e2teva s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni sau chiar luni.<\/p>\n

\u201ePoate s\u0103 fie o perioad\u0103 critic\u0103 de c\u00e2teva luni. Dar chiar
\n\u0219i o perioad\u0103 de c\u00e2teva s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni ofer\u0103 posibilitatea
\nFedera\u021biei Ruse s\u0103-\u0219i realizeze scopurile. Dac\u0103 vom afla \u00eentr-un
\ntimp scurt c\u0103 se duce lupta \u00een localitate \u00een Druzhkivka, \u00eenseamn\u0103
\nc\u0103 aceast\u0103 schimbare a fost nefericit\u0103. Dac\u0103, \u00een schimb, vom
\nasista, \u00een condi\u021biile amplific\u0103rii ofensivei ruse\u0219ti, la pierderi
\ndin ce \u00een ce mai mari ale ru\u0219ilor \u0219i la ac\u021biuni de contraatac pe
\nmai multe direc\u021bii,
\n\u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 aceast\u0103 schimbare a fost de bun augur\u201d, \u00eencheie
\ngeneralul Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu.<\/p>\n

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