{"id":251846,"date":"2026-08-05T12:30:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T12:30:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/251846\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T12:30:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T12:30:17","slug":"criza-de-pe-dunare-este-abia-la-inceput-fenomenul-poate-deveni-recurent-nu-se-poate-estima-cand-debitul-va-creste-la-loc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/251846\/","title":{"rendered":"Criza de pe Dun\u0103re este abia la \u00eenceput: \u201eFenomenul poate deveni recurent, nu se poate estima c\u00e2nd debitul va cre\u0219te la loc\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Criza de pe Dun\u0103re este aproape f\u0103r\u0103 precedent, \u00eens\u0103 ar putea deveni un fenomen recurent din cauza schimb\u0103rilor climatice, a explicat Roxana Bojariu, coordonatoare a Grupului de cercetare privind variabilitatea \u0219i schimbarea climatic\u0103 din Departamentul de climatologie al ANM, pentru Adev\u0103rul.<\/p>\n

\"reducerea <\/p>\n

Criza reducerii debitului Dun\u0103rii ar putea deveni un fenomen recurent. FOTO: Apele Rom\u00e2ne<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Cercet\u0103toarea Roxana Bojariu a explicat de ce secarea Dun\u0103rii poate deveni un fenomen recurent, a\u0219a cum institu\u021biile statului \u0219tiau \u00eenc\u0103 de acum doi ani, de la\u00a0adoptarea Strategiei Na\u021bionale privind Adaptarea la Schimb\u0103rile Climatice (SNASC) pentru perioada 2024-2030, cu perspectiva anului 2050.<\/p>\n

\u201eDin p\u0103cate, diminuarea resursei de ap\u0103 din zonele latitudinilor medii ale Europei, deci inclusiv \u00een bazinul Dun\u0103rii, \u00een lunile de var\u0103 ar putea fi accelerat\u0103 de \u00eenc\u0103lzirea global\u0103. \u00cen aceste condi\u021bii, secetele hidrologice ar putea afecta din ce \u00een ce mai mult bazinul Dun\u0103rii \u00een verile din anii \u0219i deceniile urm\u0103toare. Depinde \u0219i de c\u00e2t reu\u0219im s\u0103 reducem din emisiile de gaze cu efect de ser\u0103 rezultate din arderile de combustibili fosili.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 reu\u0219im s\u0103 reducem consistent aceste emisii, atunci vom \u00eencetini cre\u0219terea temperaturii medii globale \u0219i frecven\u021ba, intensitatea \u0219i durata valurilor de c\u0103ldur\u0103, a condi\u021biilor de secet\u0103 \u0219i a celor ce favorizeaz\u0103 incendiile de vegeta\u021bie. Nu degeaba Uniunea European\u0103 este lider \u00een ac\u021biunea climatic\u0103: rata de \u00eenc\u0103lzire a Europei este dubl\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de media global\u0103, cu toate consecin\u021bele ce decurg de aici frecven\u021ba, intensitatea \u0219i durata valurilor de c\u0103ldur\u0103, a secetelor dar \u0219i intensitate crescut\u0103 a precipita\u021biilor, ce nu \u00eencarc\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 eficient rezerva de ap\u0103 din sol\u201d, a transmis aceasta.<\/p>\n

Criza de pe Dun\u0103re a generat \u0219i foarte multe teorii ale conspira\u021biei. Principalele sunt c\u0103 \u201eb\u0103ie\u021bii de\u0219tep\u021bi str\u00e2ng apa \u00een propriile lacuri\u201d sau c\u0103 \u201eUcraina a dragat prea mult pe Canalul B\u00eestroe\u201d. Potrivit climatologului, cele dou\u0103 teorii nu pot fi fundamentate \u00een realitate.<\/p>\n

\u201eAfirma\u021biile respective nu au nicio baz\u0103 \u0219tiin\u021bific\u0103. Cauza real\u0103 a secetei hidrologice este legat\u0103 de cupolele de c\u0103ldur\u0103 ce au impactat mare parte din Europa \u0219i au favorizat seceta. \u00cen cazul special al Dun\u0103rii, efectele vin mai ales din condi\u021biile de secet\u0103 extrem\u0103 din bazinul superior \u0219i mijlociu al Dun\u0103rii, alimentat mai ales din zona Alpilor de Est, Alpilor Dinarici \u0219i o parte a arcului carpatic\u201d, a declarat Roxana Bojariu.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Sf\u00e2r\u0219itul fenomenului de secare a Dun\u0103rii nu poate fi estimat <\/p>\n

Potrivit cercet\u0103toarei, este \u00een momentul de fa\u021b\u0103 nu se poate estima c\u00e2t timp va mai continua<\/a> fenomenul de secare a Dun\u0103rii.<\/p>\n

\u201eEste dificil de prognozat. Sunt prognozate precipita\u021bii \u00een bazinul Dun\u0103rii \u00een urm\u0103toarele zile, \u00een acest sf\u00e2r\u0219it de s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, de exemplu, dar este pu\u021bin probabil ca ele s\u0103 rezolve situa\u021bia de secet\u0103 extrem\u0103. \u00cen plus, ploi mai substan\u021biale, ce ar putea s\u0103 cad\u0103 \u00een bazinul superior \u0219i mijlociu al Dun\u0103rii, vor avea nevoie de mai multe zile ca s\u0103 poat\u0103 ajunge la intrarea Dun\u0103rii \u00een Rom\u00e2nia\u201d, a mai transmis aceasta.<\/p>\n

Institutul Na\u021bional de Hidrologie \u0219i Gospod\u0103rire a Apelor a actualizat prognozele pentru fluviul Dun\u0103rea, indic\u00e2nd o sc\u0103dere continu\u0103 a debitului la sec\u021biunea de intrare \u00een Rom\u00e2nia de la Bazia\u0219. Conform datelor oficiale, valoarea estimat\u0103 este de 1.350 de metri cubi pe secund\u0103, un nivel care se situeaz\u0103 sub minimul istoric \u00eenregistrat \u00een anul 1985, c\u00e2nd debitul a fost de 1.400 de metri cubi pe secund\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Aceast\u0103 sc\u0103dere dramatic\u0103 are loc \u00eentr-un context \u00een care media multianual\u0103 pentru luna august este de 3.900 de metri cubi pe secund\u0103, ceea ce subliniaz\u0103 amploarea deficitului hidrologic actual. La sec\u021biunea Por\u021bile de Fier, debitele sunt, de asemenea, \u00een sc\u0103dere, iar evolu\u021bia nivelurilor \u00een aval este influen\u021bat\u0103 de condi\u021biile hidrologice din amonte \u0219i de opera\u021biunile de interven\u021bie \u00een desf\u0103\u0219urare.\u00a0<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Un document-strategie al Guvernului avertiza din 2024 c\u0103 Dun\u0103rea r\u0103m\u00e2ne f\u0103r\u0103 ap\u0103 <\/p>\n

Criza energetic\u0103 generat\u0103 de seceta extrem\u0103, care a condus la oprirea Unit\u0103\u021bii 1 de la Centrala Nuclear\u0103 de la Cernavod\u0103, precum \u0219i valul de c\u0103ldur\u0103 persistent care afecteaz\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia \u00een aceste zile, confirm\u0103 unul dintre cele mai importante avertismente incluse \u00een Strategia<\/a> na\u021bional\u0103 de adaptare la schimb\u0103rile climatice, adoptat\u0103 \u00een 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Seceta a scos din ad\u00e2ncurile Dun\u0103rii o surpriz\u0103 din Epoca de Ghea\u021b\u0103: oseminte care ar putea apar\u021bine unui mamut <\/a><\/p>\n

Documentul avertiza c\u0103 temperaturile ridicate \u0219i lipsa apei pot reduce eficien\u021ba centralelor energetice, pot afecta infrastructura critic\u0103 \u0219i pot genera dezechilibre majore \u00een sistemul energetic na\u021bional. Ast\u0103zi, aceste probleme sunt vizibile \u00een toat\u0103 amploarea lor: debitul Dun\u0103rii la intrarea \u00een \u021bar\u0103 a sc\u0103zut sub minimul istoric de 1.400 de metri cubi pe secund\u0103 \u00eenregistrat \u00een 1985, iar \u00een unele zone, fluviul a disp\u0103rut \u00een \u00eentregime, fiind \u00eenlocuit de \u00eentinderi uria\u0219e de nisip, inclusiv \u00een apropierea centralei de la Cernavod\u0103, unde nivelul apei continu\u0103 s\u0103 scad\u0103.<\/p>\n

Strategia, care porne\u0219te de la premisa c\u0103 schimb\u0103rile climatice vor afecta direct func\u021bionarea sistemului energetic, at\u00e2t prin reducerea eficien\u021bei unor capacit\u0103\u021bi de produc\u021bie, c\u00e2t \u0219i prin cre\u0219terea consumului \u00een perioadele cu temperaturi extreme, avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 infrastructura energetic\u0103 trebuie adaptat\u0103, deoarece fenomenele meteorologice extreme vor deveni tot mai frecvente.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pentru perioada de var\u0103 (iunie-august), modelele climatice globale \u0219i regionale analizate indic\u0103 un semnal clar de reducere a cantit\u0103\u021bilor medii lunare de precipita\u021bii at\u00e2t \u00een intervalul 2021-2030, c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een perioada 2031-2050, cele mai afectate regiuni fiind Dobrogea, B\u0103r\u0103ganul \u0219i vestul \u021b\u0103rii, zone deja vulnerabile la secet\u0103.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Un alt efect important anticipat de strategie este reducerea stratului de z\u0103pad\u0103, care alimenteaz\u0103 r\u00e2urile \u00een sezonul cald. Documentul arat\u0103 c\u0103 \u201eansamblul de modele climatice regionale indic\u0103 o continuare \u0219i amplificare general\u0103 a sc\u0103derii grosimii medii a stratului de z\u0103pad\u0103\u201d, iar \u201eaceast\u0103 reducere estimat\u0103 pentru viitor este mai puternic\u0103 \u00een luna februarie\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Consecin\u021bele asupra resurselor de ap\u0103 sunt descrise explicit: debitele medii sezoniere vor cre\u0219te iarna, dar vor sc\u0103dea \u00een celelalte anotimpuri, \u00een special vara. Debitele medii multianuale ar putea sc\u0103dea cu p\u00e2n\u0103 la 15% la nivel na\u021bional \u0219i chiar cu p\u00e2n\u0103 la 40% \u00een unele bazine hidrografice din sudul Rom\u00e2niei, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 o presiune suplimentar\u0103 asupra aliment\u0103rii cu ap\u0103 \u0219i asupra produc\u021biei de energie \u00een perioadele de secet\u0103.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Documentul stabile\u0219te explicit \u0219i leg\u0103tura dintre aceste evolu\u021bii \u0219i sectorul energetic, preciz\u00e2nd c\u0103 \u201eimpactul schimb\u0103rilor climatice asupra resurselor de ap\u0103 au efect important asupra sectoarelor cheie vulnerabile precum producerea de energie din surse hidro \u0219i nucleare\u201d. Strategia explic\u0103 mecanismul: \u201eCre\u0219terea temperaturilor apei, schimb\u0103rile \u00een modelele de precipita\u021bii cu efecte precum sc\u0103derea debitelor \u0219i apari\u021bia secetei, precum \u0219i frecven\u021ba fenomenelor meteorologice extreme afecteaz\u0103 resursa de ap\u0103 necesar\u0103 func\u021bion\u0103rii \u00een condi\u021bii optime a acestor dou\u0103 sectoare ale sistemului energetic.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dun\u0103rea a ajuns la un nivel critic. Navele circul\u0103 pe jum\u0103tate goale, iar m\u0103rfurile r\u0103m\u00e2n \u00een porturi <\/a><\/p>\n

Exact aceast\u0103 vulnerabilitate este vizibil\u0103 \u00een prezent, odat\u0103 cu oprirea controlat\u0103 a Unit\u0103\u021bii 1 de la Cernavod\u0103 pe 28 iulie<\/a>, din cauza debitului insuficient al Dun\u0103rii pentru r\u0103cirea reactorului. Cele dou\u0103 unit\u0103\u021bi ale centralei au o capacitate de 700 de megawa\u021bi electrici fiecare \u0219i acoper\u0103 aproximativ 20% din totalul produc\u021biei cu unit\u0103\u021bi dispecerizabile din Rom\u00e2nia. Situa\u021bia este at\u00e2t de critic\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t autorit\u0103\u021bile au declarat stare de alert\u0103 la nivel na\u021bional pentru \u00eentreaga lun\u0103 august.\u00a0<\/p>\n

De\u0219i strategia identific\u0103 cu precizie riscurile care afecteaz\u0103 ast\u0103zi Rom\u00e2nia \u2013 seceta, reducerea debitelor r\u00e2urilor, vulnerabilitatea centralelor hidro \u0219i nucleare, dependen\u021ba de sursele regenerabile variabile \u0219i necesitatea dezvolt\u0103rii stoc\u0103rii energiei \u2013 documentul r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een mare parte la nivelul unor direc\u021bii generale \u0219i obiective pe termen lung, f\u0103r\u0103 un calendar clar de implementare, termene concrete sau investi\u021bii asumate pentru reducerea acestor vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi.\u00a0<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Printre m\u0103surile propuse se num\u0103r\u0103 dezvoltarea sistemelor de stocare a energiei, stimularea instal\u0103rii de baterii la consumatorii casnici \u0219i industriali, modernizarea re\u021belelor de transport \u0219i distribu\u021bie, dezvoltarea produc\u021biei descentralizate \u0219i \u00eencurajarea eficien\u021bei energetice.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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