{"id":255613,"date":"2026-08-08T15:28:13","date_gmt":"2026-08-08T15:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/255613\/"},"modified":"2026-08-08T15:28:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-08T15:28:13","slug":"moodys-a-crutat-romania-acum-politicienii-pot-strica-tot-avertismentul-analistilor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/255613\/","title":{"rendered":"Moody\u2019s a cru\u021bat Rom\u00e2nia. Acum politicienii pot strica tot. Avertismentul anali\u0219tilor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rom\u00e2nia a sc\u0103pat, pentru moment, de cel mai prost scenariu. Moody\u2019s a men\u021binut ratingul de \u021bar\u0103 la Baa3, ultima treapt\u0103 din categoria investment grade, dup\u0103 ce, cu o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00eenainte, \u0219i Fitch decisese s\u0103 p\u0103streze ratingul Rom\u00e2niei. Anali\u0219tii consulta\u021bi de \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d au explicat ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 acest lucru pentru \u021bara noastr\u0103, dar \u0219i ce ar mai fi de f\u0103cut.<\/p>\n

\"Cineva <\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia a evitat, deocamdat\u0103, cel mai prost scenariu, dar nu \u0219i-a rezolvat problemele. Foto arhiv\u0103<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Decizia Moody\u2019s de a men\u021bine ratingul Rom\u00e2niei la Baa3<\/a>, ultima treapt\u0103 din categoria investment grade, evit\u0103 pentru moment scenariul cel mai prost: intrarea \u021b\u0103rii \u00een categoria \u201ejunk\u201d. Este o veste bun\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia, dar nu \u0219i una care s\u0103 permit\u0103 Guvernului s\u0103 lase garda jos.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s a p\u0103strat perspectiva negativ\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 agen\u021bia consider\u0103 \u00een continuare posibil\u0103 o retrogradare dac\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia nu reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 continue consolidarea fiscal\u0103. Cu alte cuvinte, Rom\u00e2nia a evitat sanc\u021biunea, dar r\u0103m\u00e2ne sub observa\u021bie.<\/p>\n

Adrian Codirla\u0219u consider\u0103 c\u0103 men\u021binerea ratingului este, \u00een acest context, \u201efoarte bun\u0103\u201d pentru Rom\u00e2nia. \u201eEste foarte bine, dac\u0103 era o retrogradare se vedea deja pe pie\u021be\u201d, spune analistul, care vede \u00een decizia Moody\u2019s o confirmare a faptului c\u0103 m\u0103surile adoptate de Guvern au produs rezultate mai bune dec\u00e2t se anticipa.<\/p>\n

\u201eMoody\u2019s a observat c\u0103 Guvernul a livrat mai mult dec\u00e2t a promis, iar acest lucru s-a v\u0103zut \u0219i \u00een execu\u021bia bugetar\u0103, care arat\u0103 foarte bine\u201d, a declarat Adrian Codirla\u0219u pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d.<\/p>\n

Este partea pozitiv\u0103 a raportului Moody\u2019s: agen\u021bia recunoa\u0219te c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia a f\u0103cut progrese mai rapide dec\u00e2t anticipase \u00een reducerea deficitului. Estimarea pentru 2026 este de 5,8% din PIB, ceea ce reprezint\u0103 o ajustare important\u0103.<\/p>\n

Dar tocmai pentru c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia se afl\u0103 pe ultima treapt\u0103 a categoriei investment grade, rezultatul trebuie privit cu pruden\u021b\u0103. O singur\u0103 treapt\u0103 mai jos, la Ba1, ar \u00eensemna pierderea statutului de \u021bar\u0103 recomandat\u0103 pentru investi\u021bii.<\/p>\n

\u201eTrebuie s\u0103 fim aten\u021bi, pentru c\u0103 orice reversibilitate a costurilor ne va duce \u00een Junk\u201d,\u00a0\u00a0a spus el.<\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia a evitat retrogradarea, dar nu a ie\u0219it din zona de pericol <\/p>\n

Silviu Gresoi interpreteaz\u0103 decizia Moody\u2019s \u00eentr-o cheie mai prudent\u0103. \u201eDecizia Moody\u2019s este, \u00een esen\u021b\u0103, un semnal de avertizare, nu o veste bun\u0103 \u00een sens deplin, dar nici o veste dramatic\u0103\u201d, spune analistul de date.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Formula surprinde foarte bine situa\u021bia Rom\u00e2niei.<\/p>\n

Partea bun\u0103 este c\u0103 ratingul a fost men\u021binut. Partea mai pu\u021bin bun\u0103 este c\u0103 Moody\u2019s nu a schimbat perspectiva negativ\u0103. Rom\u00e2nia r\u0103m\u00e2ne, a\u0219adar, \u00eentr-o pozi\u021bie \u00een care o deteriorare a situa\u021biei fiscale sau politice poate duce la retrogradare.<\/p>\n

\u201eRom\u00e2nia a evitat retrogradarea \u0219i r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een zona recomandat\u0103 investi\u021biilor, \u00eens\u0103 men\u021binerea perspectivei negative arat\u0103 c\u0103 agen\u021bia a\u0219teapt\u0103 rezultate concrete, nu doar promisiuni\u201d, a declarat Gresoi pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d.<\/p>\n

Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 urm\u0103toarea perioad\u0103 va fi decisiv\u0103. Nu mai este suficient ca Guvernul s\u0103 anun\u021be m\u0103suri de reducere a deficitului. Acestea trebuie s\u0103 apar\u0103 \u00een execu\u021bia bugetar\u0103 \u0219i s\u0103 fie men\u021binute \u00een timp.<\/p>\n

Problema este c\u0103 datoria \u0219i dob\u00e2nzile continu\u0103 s\u0103 creasc\u0103 <\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia are, \u00een continuare, o problem\u0103 fiscal\u0103 serioas\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 deficitul \u00eencepe s\u0103 scad\u0103.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 datoria public\u0103 va cre\u0219te de la 59,3% din PIB \u00een 2025 la 64,5% \u00een 2028. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, costurile cu dob\u00e2nzile ar urma s\u0103 urce de la 2,8% din PIB \u00een 2025 la 3,3% \u00een 2028.<\/p>\n

Presiunea este cu at\u00e2t mai mare cu c\u00e2t statul are nevoie de sume importante pentru finan\u021barea deficitului \u0219i refinan\u021barea datoriei. Moody\u2019s estimeaz\u0103 un necesar mediu de finan\u021bare de aproximativ 12% din PIB pe an \u00een perioada 2026-2028.<\/p>\n

De aceea, orice deteriorare a percep\u021biei asupra Rom\u00e2niei poate deveni costisitoare. Dac\u0103 investitorii consider\u0103 c\u0103 ajustarea fiscal\u0103 nu este sustenabil\u0103, presiunea se poate transmite \u00een dob\u00e2nzi, curs \u0219i costurile de finan\u021bare ale statului.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u201eDac\u0103 deficitul bugetar, cheltuielile publice \u0219i colectarea veniturilor nu sunt \u021binute sub control, presiunea pe rating, curs, dob\u00e2nzi \u0219i costurile de finan\u021bare poate cre\u0219te\u201d, a declarat la r\u00e2ndul s\u0103u Silviu Gresoi.<\/p>\n

Cu alte cuvinte, problema ratingului nu este una abstract\u0103. O retrogradare sau chiar perspectiva unei retrograd\u0103ri poate face \u00eemprumuturile Rom\u00e2niei mai scumpe, \u00eentr-un moment \u00een care statul are deja nevoie de finan\u021bare masiv\u0103.<\/p>\n

Pre\u0219edintele Nicu\u0219or Dan transmite partidelor s\u0103 \u201erenun\u021be la agendele politice\u201d dup\u0103 ce Moody\u2019s reconfirm\u0103 ratingul Rom\u00e2niei la \u201eBaa3\u201d <\/a>Urm\u0103torul test va fi politic <\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s nu vorbe\u0219te doar despre cifre. Una dintre principalele vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi identificate de agen\u021bie este fragmentarea politic\u0103 \u0219i riscul ca aceasta s\u0103 \u00eencetineasc\u0103 reformele \u0219i consolidarea fiscal\u0103.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s spune c\u0103 perspectiva negativ\u0103 ar putea reveni la \u201estabil\u0103\u201d dac\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia demonstreaz\u0103 c\u0103 exist\u0103 un consens politic pentru continuarea consolid\u0103rii fiscale \u0219i dup\u0103 2026.<\/p>\n

Adic\u0103 problema nu mai este doar dac\u0103 actualul Guvern a reu\u0219it s\u0103 conving\u0103 agen\u021biile de rating, ci dac\u0103 direc\u021bia fiscal\u0103 va fi p\u0103strat\u0103 \u0219i dup\u0103 eventualele schimb\u0103ri politice.<\/p>\n

\u201eImportant este s\u0103 nu deviem de la strategia pe care ne-am propus-o\u201d, a punctat Codirla\u0219u pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d, subliniind c\u0103 aceasta este, probabil, cea mai important\u0103 condi\u021bie pentru ca actuala decizie Moody\u2019s s\u0103 fie transformat\u0103 \u00eentr-un rezultat durabil.<\/p>\n

Moise Guran vede deja miza politic\u0103 a urm\u0103toarei etape <\/p>\n

\u00cen acest context trebuie privit\u0103 \u0219i analiza jurnalistului Moise Guran, care leag\u0103 decizia Moody\u2019s de calendarul politic \u0219i de schimbarea Guvernului.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u201e\u0218i cu asta probabil jobul Guvernului Bolojan s-a \u00eencheiat. Acum \u00abMaurul trebuie s\u0103 plece\u00bb\u201d, scrie Guran, suger\u00e2nd c\u0103 men\u021binerea ratingului poate \u00eenchide o etap\u0103 \u00een care actualul Executiv \u0219i-a \u00eendeplinit principala misiune fiscal\u0103.<\/p>\n

El leag\u0103 momentul de urm\u0103toarele date economice \u0219i politice \u0219i consider\u0103 c\u0103 schimbarea guvernului poate veni imediat dup\u0103 publicarea datelor privind economia din trimestrul al doilea.<\/p>\n

Indiferent dac\u0103 scenariul politic anticipat de Guran se va confirma sau nu, problema pe care o ridic\u0103 este una real\u0103 \u0219i apare \u0219i \u00een evaluarea Moody\u2019s: ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 cu consolidarea fiscal\u0103 dup\u0103 schimbarea Guvernului?<\/p>\n

Pentru agen\u021bia de rating, continuitatea este esen\u021bial\u0103. Pentru Rom\u00e2nia, cu at\u00e2t mai mult.<\/p>\n

Ce ar putea schimba perspectiva Moody\u2019s <\/p>\n

Agen\u021bia a indicat \u0219i ce ar putea transforma perspectiva negativ\u0103 \u00een una stabil\u0103: un consens politic pentru continuarea consolid\u0103rii fiscale, un buget pentru 2027 care s\u0103 duc\u0103 deficitul mai jos \u0219i o reform\u0103 a salariz\u0103rii \u00een sectorul public care s\u0103 stabilizeze \u0219i ulterior s\u0103 reduc\u0103 fondul de salarii.<\/p>\n

Ministrul Finan\u021belor dup\u0103 ce Moody\u2019s a reconfirmat ratingul Rom\u00e2niei: \u201eRiscurile sunt \u00eens\u0103 ridicate, \u00een continuare\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

Gresoi rezum\u0103 ceea ce va conta pentru investitori: \u201e\u00cen octombrie, investitorii \u0219i agen\u021biile se vor uita mai pu\u021bin la declara\u021bii \u0219i mai mult la execu\u021bia bugetar\u0103, stabilitatea politic\u0103 \u0219i capacitatea Rom\u00e2niei de a livra reformele asumate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Este, probabil, cel mai important mesaj al momentului.<\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia nu mai are nevoie s\u0103 conving\u0103 prin declara\u021bii c\u0103 va reduce deficitul. Trebuie s\u0103 arate, prin cifre, c\u0103 \u00eel reduce. Nu este suficient s\u0103 anun\u021be reforme. Trebuie s\u0103 le implementeze. \u0218i nu este suficient ca actualul Guvern s\u0103 sus\u021bin\u0103 consolidarea fiscal\u0103 dac\u0103 urm\u0103torul Executiv schimb\u0103 direc\u021bia.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia a primit timp. Acum trebuie s\u0103-l foloseasc\u0103 <\/p>\n

Decizia Moody\u2019s poate fi, prin urmare, citit\u0103 ca un r\u0103gaz.<\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia a evitat retrogradarea, dar nu \u0219i-a rezolvat problema fiscal\u0103. Ratingul Baa3 r\u0103m\u00e2ne, perspectiva este negativ\u0103, iar urm\u0103toarele luni vor ar\u0103ta dac\u0103 m\u0103surile adoptate p\u00e2n\u0103 acum reprezint\u0103 \u00eenceputul unei consolid\u0103ri fiscale reale sau doar o corec\u021bie temporar\u0103.<\/p>\n

Pentru pie\u021be, diferen\u021ba este esen\u021bial\u0103. La nivelul actual al datoriei \u0219i al costurilor de finan\u021bare, Rom\u00e2nia nu \u00ee\u0219i permite o nou\u0103 deteriorare a deficitului sau o \u00eentoarcere de la m\u0103surile deja adoptate. Iar schimbarea politic\u0103 ce se contureaz\u0103 face ca problema continuit\u0103\u021bii s\u0103 devin\u0103 la fel de important\u0103 ca rezultatele ob\u021binute p\u00e2n\u0103 acum.<\/p>\n

Moody\u2019s nu a \u00eenchis u\u0219a unei reveniri la perspectiv\u0103 stabil\u0103. Dar nici nu a oferit Rom\u00e2niei un cec \u00een alb. Urm\u0103toarea evaluare va avea la baz\u0103 cifrele: deficitul, cheltuielile, datoria, bugetul pentru 2027 \u0219i reformele care vor fi efectiv puse \u00een aplicare.<\/p>\n

Deocamdat\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia r\u0103m\u00e2ne investment grade<\/a>. Dar este pe ultima treapt\u0103. Iar de aici \u00eenainte, orice pas \u00eenapoi poate avea un pre\u021b mult mai mare.<\/p>\n

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