{"id":258049,"date":"2026-08-10T19:52:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T19:52:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/258049\/"},"modified":"2026-08-10T19:52:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T19:52:09","slug":"riscul-de-blackout-din-cauza-secarii-dunarii-explicat-de-un-inginer-hidrotehnic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/258049\/","title":{"rendered":"Riscul de blackout din cauza sec\u0103rii Dun\u0103rii, explicat de un inginer hidrotehnic"},"content":{"rendered":"

Debitul Dun\u0103rii a atins un nou minim istoric, conform ANAR. Speciali\u0219tii avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 seceta hidrologic\u0103 va persista, dar nu se pune problema unui colaps energetic, \u00een momentul de fa\u021b\u0103. Cu toate acestea, vor fi necesare precipita\u021bii moderate \u0219i continue pe mai multe s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni pentru refacerea debitelor. Criza afecteaz\u0103 \u0219i alimentarea cu ap\u0103 \u00een 80 de localit\u0103\u021bi, iar produc\u021bia industrial\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne restric\u021bionat\u0103.<\/p>\n

\"radu <\/p>\n

Ministrul interimar al Ap\u0103r\u0103rii \u00een vizit\u0103 la centrala nuclear\u0103 de la Cernavod\u0103. FOTO: MApN<\/p>\n

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Inginer hidrotehnic: Risc de criz\u0103 energetic\u0103 prelungit\u0103 <\/p>\n

Cornel Ilinca, lector la Facultatea de Hidrotehnic\u0103 din cadrul Universit\u0103\u021bii Tehnice de Construc\u021bii Bucure\u0219ti, a explicat pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d mecanismele prin care sistemul electroenergetic poate face fa\u021b\u0103 acestei situa\u021bii extreme.<\/p>\n

\u201eRiscul de colaps al sistemului electroenergetic na\u021bional, pe fondul secetei hidrologice, este legat de dou\u0103 componente vitale ale mixului energetic, \u0219i anume CNE Cernavod\u0103 \u0219i amenaj\u0103rile hidroenergetice. \u00cen prezent, \u00een baza unor solu\u021bii inginere\u0219ti temporare aplicate \u00een regim de urgen\u021b\u0103, chiar \u0219i la debite extrem de reduse (sub 1400 m\u00b3\/s), CNE Cernavod\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i poate men\u021bine o unitate \u00een func\u021biune. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te amenaj\u0103rile hidroenergetice, marile hidrocentrale cu acumulare (Hidrocentrala Por\u021bile de Fier I, AHE Vidraru, AHE Izvorul Muntelui-Bicaz etc.), datorit\u0103 volumului util al lacurilor de acumulare, pot asigura puterea de v\u00e2rf la un nivel de 1500\u20132000 MW.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Acestea acoper\u0103 v\u00e2rfurile de sarcin\u0103 ale sistemului, \u00een special \u00een orele de sear\u0103, c\u00e2nd produc\u021bia din surse fotovoltaice scade rapid. Nu se va ajunge la un colaps energetic, adic\u0103 blackout, deoarece Transelectrica poate apela la deconect\u0103ri manuale sau automate de sarcini pentru a men\u021bine stabilitatea re\u021belei electrice. Prin urmare, riscul real nu este o pan\u0103 general\u0103 de curent, ci o criz\u0103 energetic\u0103 prelungit\u0103, caracterizat\u0103 prin pre\u021buri ridicate pe pia\u021ba de energie, m\u0103suri de restric\u021bionare a consumului \u0219i impact negativ asupra economiei na\u021bionale\u201d, a declarat acesta.<\/p>\n

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Cornel Ilinca a citat prognoza Institutului Na\u021bional de Hidrologie \u0219i Gospod\u0103rire a Apelor ar\u0103t\u00e2nd c\u0103, potrivit predic\u021biilor, criza va continua pe tot parcursul lunii august.<\/p>\n

\u201ePrognoza INHGA pentru luna august nu este lini\u0219titoare, \u0219i este de a\u0219teptat ca luna august s\u0103 fie o lun\u0103 cu regim hidrologic de ape mici, pe r\u00e2urile interioare. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te Dun\u0103rea are un bazin hidrografic mare, iar r\u0103spunsul la eventuale precipita\u021bii este lung, deci va fi aceea\u0219i situa\u021bie \u0219i pentru Por\u021bile de Fier I, Por\u021bile de Fier II \u0219i CNE Cernavod\u0103\u201d, a mai precizat Cornel Ilinca.<\/p>\n

\"prognoza <\/p>\n

Prognoza INHGA pentru luna august. FOTO: INHGA <\/p>\n

Restric\u021bii \u00een alimentarea cu ap\u0103 \u00een 80 de localit\u0103\u021bi <\/p>\n

Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 efectele asupra produc\u021biei de energie, seceta a generat \u0219i dificult\u0103\u021bi \u00een aprovizionarea cu ap\u0103 potabil\u0103. Conform monitoriz\u0103rii ANAR, p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul lunii iulie au fost \u00eenregistrate restric\u021bii \u00een sistemul centralizat de alimentare cu ap\u0103 \u00een 80 de localit\u0103\u021bi, r\u0103sp\u00e2ndite \u00een 12 jude\u021be. Cele mai afectate unit\u0103\u021bi administrativ-teritoriale sunt \u00een jude\u021bele Neam\u021b (26 de localit\u0103\u021bi), Bihor (15), Bac\u0103u (10), Gala\u021bi (8), Vaslui (8) \u0219i Maramure\u0219 (7). De asemenea, pentru localit\u0103\u021bile care se aprovizioneaz\u0103 din surse individuale, precum pu\u021buri \u0219i f\u00e2nt\u00e2ni, au fost impuse restric\u021bii \u00een 61 de localit\u0103\u021bi din trei jude\u021be: Boto\u0219ani (55), Gorj (3) \u0219i Ia\u0219i (3).<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u201eDin monitorizarea pe care am realizat-o \u015fi care con\u0163ine informa\u0163ii p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul lunii iulie, avem 80 de localit\u0103\u0163i din 12 jude\u0163e care au \u00een acest moment restric\u0163ii \u00een alimentarea cu ap\u0103 \u00een sistem centralizat. (…) \u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte impunerea de restric\u0163ii \u00een localit\u0103\u0163ile care nu beneficiaz\u0103 de sisteme centralizate de alimentare cu ap\u0103, respectiv se alimenteaz\u0103 din pu\u0163uri \u015fi f\u00e2nt\u00e2ni, avem la nivel na\u0163ional 61 de localit\u0103\u0163i din trei jude\u0163e\u201d, a transmis Ana-Maria Agiu.<\/p>\n

\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te stocul de ap\u0103 din principalele acumul\u0103ri, reprezentanta ANAR a indicat c\u0103, la nivel na\u021bional, coeficientul mediu de umplere \u00een cele 40 de lacuri de importan\u021b\u0103 major\u0103 este de 71%.<\/p>\n

Seceta istoric\u0103 a Dun\u0103rii pune la \u00eencercare sistemul energetic al Rom\u00e2niei\u00a0 <\/p>\n

Consecin\u021bele secetei nu s-au limitat \u00eens\u0103 la sectorul nuclear. Produc\u021bia de energie hidroelectric\u0103 a fost, de asemenea, puternic afectat\u0103, compania Hidroelectrica raport\u00e2nd o sc\u0103dere dramatic\u0103 a produc\u021biei nete de energie electric\u0103 cu 38% \u00een primul trimestru al anului 2025, ating\u00e2nd cel mai sc\u0103zut nivel din ultimul deceniu. Acest declin s-a reflectat direct \u00een rezultatele financiare ale companiei, profitul acesteia \u00eenregistr\u00e2nd o sc\u0103dere de 56% \u00een primul trimestru al anului 2025 \u0219i de 20% pe \u00eentregul an anterior, din cauza condi\u021biilor hidrologice tot mai precare.<\/p>\n

De ce criza energetic\u0103 din Rom\u00e2nia nu se va \u00eencheia odat\u0103 cu revenirea debitului Dun\u0103rii. Lec\u021biile alertei energetice f\u0103r\u0103 precedent <\/a><\/p>\n

Pierderea a aproximativ 1400 de megawa\u021bi de la Cernavod\u0103, coroborat\u0103 cu sc\u0103derea drastic\u0103 a produc\u021biei hidro, a for\u021bat Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 recurg\u0103 la importuri \u0219i a scos la iveal\u0103 vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi structurale ale sistemului energetic, \u00eentr-un context economic deja fragil, marcat de stagnare, declinul produc\u021biei industriale cu 3,1% \u00een primele cinci luni ale anului 2026 \u0219i o infla\u021bie ridicat\u0103. Anali\u0219tii ING Bank au descris aceast\u0103 suprapunere de factori drept un \u0219oc stagfla\u021bionist, care reduce produc\u021bia intern\u0103 \u0219i amplific\u0103 costurile cu energia \u0219i transportul, estim\u00e2nd o posibil\u0103 contrac\u021bie a Produsului Intern Brut de 0,5% pentru anul \u00een curs.<\/p>\n

Criz\u0103 reprezint\u0103 un semnal de alarm\u0103 dublu, fiind at\u00e2t o consecin\u021b\u0103 direct\u0103 a schimb\u0103rilor climatice, c\u00e2t \u0219i un reflectoriu al unui deficit de implementare \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te investi\u021biile necesare \u00een noi capacit\u0103\u021bi de produc\u021bie, interconect\u0103ri \u0219i sisteme de stocare a energiei.\u00a0<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Efect de domino \u00een economie <\/p>\n

Seceta a declan\u0219at \u0219i un efect de domino \u00een economie, for\u021b\u00e2nd cei mai mari doi produc\u0103tori auto din Rom\u00e2nia, Dacia \u0219i Ford, s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i opreasc\u0103 temporar liniile de asamblare \u0219i determin\u00e2nd autorit\u0103\u021bile s\u0103 recurg\u0103 la un pachet amplu de m\u0103suri de restric\u021bionare a consumului, de la iluminatul public p\u00e2n\u0103 la uzul electrocasnicelor \u00een gospod\u0103rii.<\/p>\n

Ca r\u0103spuns la apelul Guvernului de reducere voluntar\u0103 a consumului, Dacia \u0219i Ford, cei doi mari consumatori industriali au decis s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i opreasc\u0103 produc\u021bia p\u00e2n\u0103 pe 19 august.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Premierul interimar Ilie Bolojan a anun\u021bat c\u0103 aceast\u0103 m\u0103sur\u0103 drastic\u0103 va genera o economie de aproximativ 200 de megawa\u021bi, o gur\u0103 de oxigen vital\u0103 pentru sistemul energetic na\u021bional aflat \u00een colaps.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00cen cadrul unei \u00eent\u00e2lniri online cu reprezentan\u021bii a aproximativ 80 de mari companii din siderurgie, industria auto, materiale de construc\u021bii \u0219i petrochimie, Guvernul a solicitat reducerea voluntar\u0103 a consumului, \u00een special \u00een intervalul de v\u00e2rf 19:00-23:00, l\u0103s\u00e2nd fiec\u0103rei firme libertatea de a alege m\u0103surile tehnice potrivite profilului s\u0103u de produc\u021bie.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bolojan a precizat c\u0103 unele companii au intrat direct \u00een perioada de mentenan\u021b\u0103 \u0219i repara\u021bii, iar efectele \u00eencep s\u0103 se vad\u0103 deja, consumul \u00eenregistr\u00e2nd o sc\u0103dere fa\u021b\u0103 de orele normale ale zilei.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00cen paralel, autorit\u0103\u021bile au declarat stare de alert\u0103 energetic\u0103 la nivel na\u021bional, o m\u0103sur\u0103 care nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 \u00eentreruperi imediate pentru popula\u021bie, dar care permite Guvernului s\u0103 intervin\u0103 rapid \u0219i s\u0103 preg\u0103teasc\u0103 restric\u021bii suplimentare, dac\u0103 situa\u021bia se va agrava.<\/p>\n

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Record dup\u0103 record <\/p>\n

Amintim c\u0103 Administra\u021bia Na\u021bional\u0103 \u201eApele Rom\u00e2ne\u201d a raportat la finalul s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nii trecute un nou record negativ privind debitul fluviului Dun\u0103rea, care a cobor\u00e2t la 1.400 de metri cubi pe secund\u0103. Aceast\u0103 cota extrem de redus\u0103, generat\u0103 de o secet\u0103 hidrologic\u0103 prelungit\u0103, a afectat direct capacitatea de r\u0103cire a Centralei Nucleare de la Cernavod\u0103<\/a>, determin\u00e2nd autorit\u0103\u021bile s\u0103 recurg\u0103 la m\u0103suri excep\u021bionale pentru a evita \u00eentreruperea furniz\u0103rii de energie electric\u0103.<\/p>\n

Nivelul r\u00e2urilor Europei a sc\u0103zut la minime istorice. C\u0103ldura de peste patruzeci de grade paralizeaz\u0103 transporturile, energia \u0219i agricultura pe continent <\/a><\/p>\n

\u201eDun\u0103rea \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 ast\u0103zi un nou minim istoric, de 1.400 mc\/s, iar acest debit minim se va men\u0163ine sta\u0163ionar p\u00e2n\u0103 cel pu\u0163in pe 12 august. Aceasta este o veste relativ bun\u0103, \u00een sensul \u00een care vorbim despre o sta\u0163ionalitate a debitelor pe o durat\u0103 de o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte nivelul Dun\u0103rii la Cernavod\u0103, acesta este ast\u0103zi de -218 cm \u015fi va ajunge \u00een data de 12 august la -228 cm. Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 o sc\u0103dere cu 10 cm. Putem constata faptul c\u0103, raport\u00e2ndu-ne la prognoza de luni, sc\u0103derea \u00een 7 zile este de 10 cm. De asemenea, dac\u0103 \u00een data de luni aveam -218 de centimetri, iar ast\u0103zi avem tot aceea\u015fi valoare la Cernavod\u0103, putem constata faptul c\u0103 am c\u00e2\u015ftigat trei-patru zile \u00een plus pentru men\u0163inerea unor debite minime \u00een vederea func\u0163ion\u0103rii \u00een siguran\u0163\u0103 a centralei de la Cernavod\u0103\u201d, a declarat Ana-Maria Agiu, purt\u0103toarea de cuv\u00e2nt a Administra\u021biei Na\u021bionale \u201eApele Rom\u00e2ne\u201d.<\/p>\n

Centrala Nuclear\u0103 de la Cernavod\u0103, care asigur\u0103 \u00een mod obi\u0219nuit aproximativ o cincime din consumul na\u021bional de electricitate, a fost grav afectat\u0103 de sc\u0103derea drastic\u0103 a nivelului apei<\/a> din fluviu, necesar\u0103 procesului de r\u0103cire a reactoarelor. Pentru prima dat\u0103 \u00een ultimii 44 de ani, Unitatea 1 a fost oprit\u0103 preventiv, iar pentru men\u021binerea \u00een func\u021biune a Unit\u0103\u021bii 2, autorit\u0103\u021bile au declarat stare de alert\u0103 na\u021bional\u0103 \u00een sectorul energetic. Interven\u021biile au inclus explozii controlate pentru eliminarea unui prag de st\u00e2nc\u0103 din albie, precum \u0219i scufundarea unor barje \u00eenc\u0103rcate cu piatr\u0103, executat\u0103 de armat\u0103, pentru a redirec\u021biona cursul apei c\u0103tre priza centralei. Aceste solu\u021bii au fost recunoscute ca fiind temporare, oferind doar un r\u0103gaz de c\u00e2teva zile, iar compania Nuclearelectrica a \u00eenceput deja importuri de energie din Ucraina pentru a compensa deficitul.<\/p>\n

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