{"id":258245,"date":"2026-08-11T04:47:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T04:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/258245\/"},"modified":"2026-08-11T04:47:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-11T04:47:11","slug":"kievul-duce-razboiul-acasa-la-rusi-cum-incearca-ucraina-sa-forteze-moscova-sa-accepte-incetarea-focului","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/258245\/","title":{"rendered":"Kievul duce r\u0103zboiul acas\u0103 la ru\u0219i. Cum \u00eencearc\u0103 Ucraina s\u0103 for\u021beze Moscova s\u0103 accepte \u00eencetarea focului"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ucraina \u0219i-a schimbat \u00een ultimele luni strategia de r\u0103zboi \u0219i \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 mute o parte tot mai important\u0103 a confrunt\u0103rii pe teritoriul Federa\u021biei Ruse. Loviturile asupra rafin\u0103riilor, depozitelor, infrastructurii militare \u0219i liniilor logistice au devenit tot mai frecvente \u0219i mai \u00eendep\u0103rtate de front, iar Kievul a demonstrat c\u0103 poate atinge obiective aflate la mii de kilometri de teritoriul ucrainean. Miza nu este doar distrugerea unor obiective militare sau economice, ci \u0219i men\u021binerea ini\u021biativei \u0219i cre\u0219terea presiunii asupra Moscovei pentru a accepta o \u00eencetare a focului. Comandorul \u00een rezerv\u0103 Sandu Valentin Mateiu \u0219i generalul \u00een rezerv\u0103 Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu explic\u0103 pentru \u201eAdev\u0103rul\u201d de ce Ucraina \u00ee\u0219i asum\u0103 riscul unor atacuri tot mai ample \u00een interiorul Rusiei, ce efecte au produs deja acestea \u0219i \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103 pot influen\u021ba evolu\u021bia r\u0103zboiului.<\/p>\n

\"Avion <\/p>\n

Imagine de pe canalul Telegram Sirena, care pare s\u0103 arate un avion militar \u00een fl\u0103c\u0103ri. FOTO: AP<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Timp de mai bine de 3 ani, principala imagine a r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina a fost cea a confrunt\u0103rii de-a lungul unei linii a frontului de peste 1000 kilometri. Rusia a \u00eencercat s\u0103 avanseze \u00een est, iar Ucraina s\u0103 opreasc\u0103 \u00eenaintarea \u0219i s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i p\u0103streze pozi\u021biile. \u00cen paralel, ambele tabere au folosit atacurile cu rachete \u0219i drone \u00eempotriva infrastructurii aflate \u00een spatele frontului.<\/p>\n

\u00cen ultimele luni, \u00eens\u0103, capacitatea Ucrainei de a lovi la mare distan\u021b\u0103 a crescut considerabil. Kievul a \u00eenceput s\u0103 vizeze sistematic obiective aflate \u00een interiorul Rusiei, de la rafin\u0103rii \u0219i depozite de combustibil p\u00e2n\u0103 la infrastructur\u0103 logistic\u0103 \u0219i instala\u021bii militare.<\/p>\n

Campania a c\u0103p\u0103tat o nou\u0103 amploare dup\u0103 26 iunie, c\u00e2nd pre\u0219edintele Volodimir Zelenski a anun\u021bat o campanie de 40 zile de lovituri \u00een ad\u00e2ncimea teritoriului rus, cu scopul declarat de a cre\u0219te presiunea asupra Moscovei \u0219i de a o determina s\u0103 negocieze.<\/p>\n

Serviciul de Securitate al Ucrainei a raportat \u00een aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103 cel pu\u021bin 100 de lovituri reu\u0219ite pe teritoriul Rusiei. Una dintre cele mai \u00eendep\u0103rtate \u021binte a fost o rafin\u0103rie din Omsk, aflat\u0103 la aproximativ 2.700 kilometri de teritoriul controlat de Ucraina.<\/p>\n

Dimensiunea geografic\u0103 a atacurilor schimb\u0103 astfel una dintre premisele de baz\u0103 ale r\u0103zboiului. Rusia nu mai poate considera c\u0103 obiectivele economice \u0219i industriale aflate departe de linia frontului sunt automat \u00een afara razei de ac\u021biune a armelor ucrainene.<\/p>\n

\u201eAcum, nicio rafin\u0103rie ruseasc\u0103 nu mai este \u00een afara razei de ac\u021biune a armelor ucrainene”, a explicat Volodimir Zelenski.<\/p>\n

De ce love\u0219te Ucraina \u00een Rusia <\/p>\n

Potrivit lui Sandu Valentin Mateiu, campania de lovituri face parte dintr-o strategie construit\u0103 pe trei direc\u021bii. Prima este stabilizarea frontului, unde problema resursei umane r\u0103m\u00e2ne una dintre vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bile Kievului. A doua este ap\u0103rarea teritoriului ucrainean, \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care exist\u0103 un deficit de interceptori, \u00een special \u00eempotriva rachetelor balistice. A treia direc\u021bie este lovirea Rusiei \u00een profunzime.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u201eCred c\u0103, \u00een clipa de fa\u021b\u0103, strategia ucrainenilor este pe trei planuri. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, stabilizeaz\u0103 frontul, iar aici au probleme cu oamenii. Ministrul Fedorov vorbea chiar, dup\u0103 ce a dimensionat problema, despre mobilizare. Al doilea plan este ap\u0103rarea teritoriului, iar aici sunt probleme cu interceptorii, mai ales \u00eempotriva atacurilor balistice. Al treilea este s\u0103 loveasc\u0103 \u00een Rusia. Aici au o strategie diversificat\u0103, pe care, \u00een sf\u00e2r\u0219it, o pot implementa, pentru c\u0103 mult\u0103 vreme nu au avut mijloacele necesare. Acum caut\u0103 \u0219i alte mijloace, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 drone, care s\u0103 poat\u0103 lovi”, a explicat Sandu Valentin Mateiu.<\/p>\n

Generalul Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu vede \u00eens\u0103 \u00een aceste atacuri \u0219i o miz\u0103 strategic\u0103 mai larg\u0103. Ucraina \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 demonstreze Rusiei c\u0103 are capacitatea de a lovi la distan\u021b\u0103 \u0219i, prin urmare, c\u0103 poate crea o amenin\u021bare direct\u0103 pentru teritoriul rus.<\/p>\n

\u201ePrincipalul obiectiv este s\u0103 se ajung\u0103 la \u00eencetarea focului, eventual la un armisti\u021biu. Demonstrezi adversarului c\u0103 ai capabilit\u0103\u021bi de lovire, \u00ee\u021bi men\u021bii ini\u021biativa \u00eentr-un r\u0103zboi, iar toate ac\u021biunile letale sunt, \u00een viziunea ta, de ap\u0103rare. \u00cen felul acesta, \u00eei demonstrezi c\u0103 el nu de\u021bine ini\u021biativa \u0219i c\u0103 nu el stabile\u0219te condi\u021biile. Ucrainenii vor \u00eencetarea focului \u0219i, la distan\u021b\u0103, nu cred c\u0103 se g\u00e2ndesc serios la un acord de pace, \u00een sensul \u00een care realizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 lucrurile acestea sunt foarte dificile”, a explicat Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu.<\/p>\n

Combustibilul, punctul vulnerabil al Rusiei <\/p>\n

Una dintre cele mai importante \u021binte ale campaniei ucrainene a devenit sectorul energetic. Rafin\u0103riile sunt importante at\u00e2t pentru economia Rusiei, c\u00e2t \u0219i pentru ma\u0219ina sa de r\u0103zboi. Atacurile asupra lor pot reduce disponibilitatea carburan\u021bilor, pot perturba logistica militar\u0103 \u0219i pot genera probleme pe pia\u021ba intern\u0103. \u00cen opinia lui Sandu Valentin Mateiu, campania \u00eempotriva rafin\u0103riilor este p\u00e2n\u0103 acum unul dintre cele mai clare succese ale Ucrainei.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u201eEu vorbesc, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd, despre elementul esen\u021bial al economiei, sectorul energetic, \u0219i au reu\u0219it. Campania \u00eempotriva rafin\u0103riilor este un succes. Dincolo de faptul c\u0103 afecteaz\u0103 ma\u0219ina de r\u0103zboi, afecteaz\u0103 \u0219i economia \u0219i are impact la nivelul popula\u021biei. \u00cen felul acesta, f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 ucid\u0103 ru\u0219i, pentru c\u0103 aceasta este o cerin\u021b\u0103 a r\u0103zboiului pe care \u00eel duc ucrainenii, ei trebuie s\u0103 fie morali \u00een ceea ce fac. Practic, duc r\u0103zboiul acas\u0103 la ru\u0219i”, a subliniat comandorul \u00een rezerv\u0103.<\/p>\n

Generalul Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu consider\u0103 c\u0103 efectul economic al atacurilor a devenit deja suficient de important pentru a constitui o amenin\u021bare strategic\u0103 la adresa Moscovei.<\/p>\n

\u201eCapacitatea de lovire la distan\u021b\u0103 \u0219i, dac\u0103 \u021bi-o men\u021bii, reprezint\u0103 \u0219i o amenin\u021bare. La ora actual\u0103, loviturile la distan\u021b\u0103 ale ucrainenilor reprezint\u0103 o amenin\u021bare pentru Federa\u021bia Rus\u0103. Au declan\u0219at deja o criz\u0103 a combustibililor pe care ru\u0219ii p\u00e2n\u0103 acum nu au reu\u0219it s\u0103 o rezolve. \u0218i-au asumat un asemenea risc, care cre\u0219te \u00een mod constant, odat\u0103 cu intensificarea loviturilor. Acestea sunt din ce \u00een ce mai ample \u0219i vizeaz\u0103 mult mai multe \u021binte. Asta \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care capabilit\u0103\u021bile de ap\u0103rare antiaerian\u0103 ale ucrainenilor au sc\u0103zut considerabil, mai ales \u00een privin\u021ba rachetelor Patriot \u0219i a capabilit\u0103\u021bilor de contracarare a rachetelor balistice \u0219i hipersonice. Este asumarea unui risc strategic, dar au realizat c\u0103 numai astfel pot s\u0103 determine Rusia s\u0103 se g\u00e2ndeasc\u0103 \u00een mod real la o \u00eencetare a focului”, a subliniat generalul \u00een rezerv\u0103.<\/p>\n

O racheta ruseasc\u0103 Ore\u0219nik s-ar fi pr\u0103bu\u0219it dup\u0103 lansare \u00een regiunea ocupat\u0103 Done\u021bk, lovind chiar pozi\u021biile armatei ruse <\/a><\/p>\n

Datele prezentate \u00een material indic\u0103 amploarea efectelor asupra sectorului petrolier rus. Potrivit unei analize ACLED, num\u0103rul atacurilor asupra instala\u021biilor petroliere ruse\u0219ti a crescut de la 3 \u00een primul an al r\u0103zboiului la 13 \u00een al doilea, pentru ca \u00een al patrulea an s\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 130.<\/p>\n

\u00cen iulie, rafinarea petrolului \u00een Rusia a cobor\u00e2t la cel mai redus nivel din ultimii peste dou\u0103zeci de ani, iar Moscova a fost nevoit\u0103 s\u0103 apeleze la importuri de carburan\u021bi din Kazahstan, India, Japonia \u0219i Maroc. \u00cen Crimeea, penuria de benzin\u0103 a devenit vizibil\u0103 pentru popula\u021bie.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Ucraina love\u0219te \u0219i logistica militar\u0103 <\/p>\n

Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 efectele economice, Kievul \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 afecteze infrastructura care sus\u021bine opera\u021biunile militare ruse\u0219ti. Loviturile asupra depozitelor, bazelor \u0219i rutelor logistice aflate \u00een spatele frontului pot \u00eengreuna aprovizionarea trupelor \u0219i pot obliga Rusia s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i mute resursele mai departe de linia de contact.<\/p>\n

Sandu Valentin Mateiu face \u00eens\u0103 o distinc\u021bie \u00eentre efectele ob\u021binute asupra sectorului energetic \u0219i cele asupra industriei militare. \u00cen cazul produc\u021biei de rachete, de exemplu, nu exist\u0103 deocamdat\u0103 indicii clare privind o diminuare semnificativ\u0103 a produc\u021biei ruse.<\/p>\n

\u201eUn alt element este lovirea industriei militare ruse\u0219ti. \u0218i aici rezultatul este par\u021bial. Nu se vede \u00eenc\u0103 o diminuare a num\u0103rului de rachete pe care Rusia le construie\u0219te. Este \u0219i greu, foarte probabil, dar, oricum, obiectivele militare sunt multiple. Vorbim, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd, de complexe militare, de cele aflate \u00een spatele frontului, iar apoi de tot ceea ce \u021bine de front \u0219i de logistica acestuia. Unul dintre marile succese ale Ucrainei este faptul c\u0103 a reu\u0219it s\u0103 loveasc\u0103 logistica \u00een proximitatea frontului”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Rusia \u00ee\u0219i redistribuie ap\u0103rarea antiaerian\u0103 <\/p>\n

Un alt efect al extinderii atacurilor ucrainene este presiunea asupra sistemului rusesc de ap\u0103rare antiaerian\u0103. Rusia trebuie s\u0103 aleag\u0103 ce obiective protejeaz\u0103 \u0219i ce regiuni pot r\u0103m\u00e2ne mai slab ap\u0103rate.<\/p>\n

Potrivit lui Mateiu, unele sisteme au fost retrase inclusiv din zona arctic\u0103 \u0219i mutate c\u0103tre Moscova \u0219i alte mari ora\u0219e. Decizia arat\u0103 dificultatea de a proteja un teritoriu at\u00e2t de vast \u00een fa\u021ba unei amenin\u021b\u0103ri care poate ap\u0103rea la mii de kilometri distan\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eDa, exist\u0103 aceste mi\u0219c\u0103ri. Ini\u021bial s-a v\u0103zut c\u0103, din anumite zone ale Rusiei, de exemplu din zona arctic\u0103, au fost luate sistemele de ap\u0103rare antiaerian\u0103, chiar \u0219i cele care ap\u0103rau anumite baze strategice ale ru\u0219ilor. Au fost mutate. Numai c\u0103 \u0219i aici apar probleme legate de func\u021bionalitatea sistemului \u00een ansamblu. Moscova \u0219i celelalte mari ora\u0219e sunt prioritare, pentru c\u0103, \u00een fond, Kremlinului \u00eei este team\u0103 de ora\u0219ele mari. Deja se pl\u00e2ng civilii ru\u0219i \u0219i patronii ru\u0219i c\u0103 obiectivele lor economice nu sunt ap\u0103rate”, a explicat Sandu Valentin Mateiu.<\/p>\n

Vulnerabilitatea este important\u0103 tocmai pentru c\u0103 Rusia trebuie s\u0103 protejeze simultan centrele politice, bazele militare, infrastructura energetic\u0103 \u0219i industria de ap\u0103rare. Fiecare sistem mutat c\u0103tre Moscova las\u0103 poten\u021bial descoperit un alt obiectiv.<\/p>\n

Rusia avanseaz\u0103 \u00een Donbas <\/p>\n

Loviturile asupra teritoriului rus nu trebuie confundate cu o schimbare a situa\u021biei de pe front. Rusia continu\u0103 s\u0103 exercite presiune \u00een Donbas \u0219i s\u0103 ob\u021bin\u0103 progrese teritoriale, ceea ce explic\u0103 \u00een parte nevoia Kievului de a deschide o nou\u0103 direc\u021bie de presiune.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu avertizeaz\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 nu poate fi stabilit\u0103 automat o leg\u0103tur\u0103 \u00eentre ofensiva rus\u0103 din Donbas \u0219i intensificarea atacurilor ucrainene \u00een Rusia.<\/p>\n

\u201eRusia are succes \u00een Donbas. N-am mai v\u0103zut ultimele informa\u021bii cu privire la [neclar]. Au \u00eenceput s\u0103 retrag\u0103, s\u0103 evacueze cet\u0103\u021benii \u0219i din Krasnodar. \u00centr-un anumit fel, ucrainenii se a\u0219teptau la a\u0219a ceva. S\u0103 nu avem o situa\u021bie de cre\u0219tere a ritmului unei ofensive \u00een Donbas. Deocamdat\u0103, nu putem face o leg\u0103tur\u0103 direct\u0103. Vom vedea dup\u0103 aceea”, a explicat Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu,\u00a0fost \u015fef al Brig\u0103zii Multina\u021bionale din Sud-Estul Europei. <\/p>\n

BBC, reportaj din blocul lovit de dron\u0103 la Gala\u021bi: \u201eNe-au spus c\u0103 suntem proteja\u021bi de NATO. Uite unde suntem acum\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

\u00cen aceste condi\u021bii, strategia Kievului pare s\u0103 urm\u0103reasc\u0103 mai degrab\u0103 schimbarea costurilor r\u0103zboiului dec\u00e2t ob\u021binerea imediat\u0103 a unei victorii militare decisive. Dac\u0103 Rusia poate men\u021bine presiunea pe front, Ucraina \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 creeze o presiune paralel\u0103 asupra economiei, logisticii \u0219i infrastructurii ruse.<\/p>\n

De ce a ezitat Occidentul s\u0103 permit\u0103 atacurile \u00een Rusia <\/p>\n

Extinderea loviturilor ucrainene ridic\u0103 inevitabil problema \u00eent\u00e2rzierii cu care Occidentul a permis folosirea anumitor arme \u00eempotriva unor \u021binte aflate pe teritoriul Rusiei.<\/p>\n

Sandu Valentin Mateiu consider\u0103 c\u0103 principala explica\u021bie a fost teama de escaladare, \u00een special de un eventual r\u0103spuns nuclear al Moscovei.<\/p>\n

\u201eAici nu putem s\u0103 judec\u0103m post factum. Dar trebuie s\u0103 vedem liderii occidentali, c\u00e2t \u0219i cum au luat aceste decizii. \u0218i aici, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd, a fost op\u021biunea privind re\u021binerea. De ce? Pentru c\u0103 a fost team\u0103, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd, de un r\u0103spuns nuclear al Rusiei. Rusia a folosit foarte bine acest instrument de descurajare, faptul c\u0103 are arm\u0103 nuclear\u0103 \u0219i c\u0103 ar fi dispus\u0103 s\u0103 o foloseasc\u0103. Dar, \u00eencet-\u00eencet, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce lucrurile au evoluat, Rusia nu a folosit arma \u0219i a folosit prea mult retorica. F\u0103r\u0103 ac\u021biuni, da, se decredibilizeaz\u0103”, a subliniat analistul.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Virgil B\u0103l\u0103ceanu are o evaluare mai tran\u0219ant\u0103. Generalul, fost reprezentant al Rom\u00e2niei la Comandamentul NATO de la Bruxelles, consider\u0103 c\u0103 Occidentul a gre\u0219it \u00eentr-o anumit\u0103 m\u0103sur\u0103 prin \u00eent\u00e2rzierea permisiunii, dar subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een fazele ini\u021biale ale r\u0103zboiului, Ucraina nici nu dispunea de capabilit\u0103\u021bile occidentale necesare pentru asemenea lovituri.<\/p>\n

\u201e\u00centr-un anumit fel, da. Dar s\u0103 plec\u0103m de la ideea c\u0103 nici nu aveau capabilit\u0103\u021bi occidentale la vremea respectiv\u0103 \u0219i c\u0103 acestea le-au fost create ucrainenilor. Dac\u0103 vorbim de rachetele ATACMS, pentru care americanii au dat aprobare foarte t\u00e2rziu, vorbim de o ad\u00e2ncime de 300 de kilometri. Deci po\u021bi lovi la 300 kilometri. Este o lovitur\u0103 \u00een ad\u00e2ncimea operativ\u0103. De regul\u0103, asemenea lovituri le folose\u0219ti \u00eempotriva infrastructurii militare de sprijin a frontului. Ori aici vorbim de lovituri \u00een ad\u00e2ncime care s\u0103 afecteze, \u0219i s-a reu\u0219it acest lucru, sistemul de produc\u021bie \u0219i de depozitare a combustibililor\u201d, subliniaz\u0103 generalul.<\/p>\n

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