{"id":260155,"date":"2026-08-12T16:22:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T16:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/260155\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T16:22:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T16:22:14","slug":"romania-risca-scumpiri-la-energie-dupa-oprirea-reactorului-2-de-la-cernavoda-ce-scenarii-sunt-luate-in-calcul","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/260155\/","title":{"rendered":"Rom\u00e2nia risc\u0103 scumpiri la energie dup\u0103 oprirea Reactorului 2 de la Cernavod\u0103. Ce scenarii sunt luate \u00een calcul"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oprirea Reactorului 2 de la Cernavod\u0103 ar putea duce la scumpirea energiei, dac\u0103 produc\u021bia intern\u0103 nu va fi compensat\u0103 prin importuri \u0219i regenerabile. Pre\u021bul de pe pia\u021ba pentru ziua urm\u0103toare ar putea ajunge la 850-1.800 de lei\/MWh, iar \u00een scenarii extreme ar putea dep\u0103\u0219i 5.000 de lei\/MWh, estimeaz\u0103 Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, pre\u0219edintele Asocia\u021biei Energia Inteligent\u0103. Pentru consumatorii casnici, ofertele pentru perioada septembrie 2026-septembrie 2027 ar putea ajunge la 1,40-1,62 lei\/kWh, cu TVA inclus.<\/p>\n

\"Centrala <\/p>\n

Pre\u021burile energiei ar putea cre\u0219te \u00een cazul opririi reactorului 2 de la Cernavod\u0103. Foto arhiv\u0103<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Reactorul 2 de la Cernavod\u0103 are o putere instalat\u0103 de
\naproximativ 700 MW. Dac\u0103 ar deveni indisponibil, Rom\u00e2nia ar pierde
\no surs\u0103 important\u0103 de produc\u021bie continu\u0103<\/a>, care poate func\u021biona
\nindependent de condi\u021biile meteo.<\/p>\n

\u00centr-un asemenea scenariu, energia care nu mai este produs\u0103 de
\nreactor trebuie \u00eenlocuit\u0103 prin alte surse. Sistemul poate apela la
\nimporturi, la produc\u021bia intern\u0103 disponibil\u0103, la capacit\u0103\u021bi
\nflexibile, la stocare \u0219i, atunci c\u00e2nd resursele sunt insuficiente,
\nla reducerea consumului.<\/p>\n

Impactul asupra pre\u021bului nu ar fi \u00eens\u0103 uniform pe parcursul
\nzilei.<\/p>\n

Potrivit expertului \u00een energie Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, cea mai mare presiune ar ap\u0103rea
\n\u00een intervalele de sear\u0103, \u00een special \u00eentre 19:00 \u0219i 23:00, c\u00e2nd
\nproduc\u021bia fotovoltaic\u0103 dispare, iar consumul r\u0103m\u00e2ne ridicat. La
\npr\u00e2nz, produc\u021bia solar\u0103 ar putea tempera cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor.
\nNoaptea, lipsa produc\u021biei nucleare continue ar men\u021bine presiunea
\nasupra sistemului.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2t ar putea ajunge pre\u021bul <\/p>\n

Efectul depinde \u00een primul r\u00e2nd de c\u00e2t\u0103 energie poate fi adus\u0103 din import \u0219i de c\u00e2t\u0103 produc\u021bie intern\u0103 este disponibil\u0103.<\/p>\n

PZU, adic\u0103 Pia\u021ba pentru Ziua Urm\u0103toare, este un indicator de pia\u021ba pe care se stabile\u0219te, \u00een avans, pre\u021bul energiei pentru fiecare or\u0103 din ziua urm\u0103toare \u0219i este unul dintre principalele repere pentru pre\u021bul angro al energiei. De aceea, evolu\u021bia acestui pre\u021b este important\u0103 atunci c\u00e2nd o surs\u0103 mare de produc\u021bie este oprit\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u00cen scenariul \u00een care importurile sunt suficiente \u0219i consumul este redus suplimentar, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 un pre\u021b mediu PZU de aproximativ 850-1.050 lei\/MWh, cu posibilitatea unor v\u00e2rfuri de 1.500-2.500 lei\/MWh \u00een orele de sear\u0103.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 importurile sunt mai limitate, dar sistemul nu intr\u0103
\n\u00eentr-un deficit fizic, estimarea sa pentru pre\u021bul mediu urc\u0103 la
\n1.000-1.400 lei\/MWh, iar v\u00e2rfurile de sear\u0103 ar
\nputea ajunge la 2.500-4.500 lei\/MWh.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Cel mai sever scenariu presupune importuri saturate \u0219i produc\u021bie
\nredus\u0103 de energie solar\u0103 \u0219i eolian\u0103. \u00cen acest caz, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103
\nindic\u0103 un interval de 1.300-1.800 lei\/MWh pentru
\nmedia PZU, \u00een timp ce pre\u021burile din anumite ore ar putea ajunge la
\n4.500-5.000 lei\/MWh.<\/p>\n

\u00cen cazul unui deficit regional simultan \u0219i al unei rezerve
\ninsuficiente, pre\u021bul mediu ar putea dep\u0103\u0219i 1.800 lei\/MWh, iar \u00een
\nintervale izolate ar putea trece de 5.000 lei\/MWh.<\/p>\n

Aceste valori reprezint\u0103 scenarii, nu prognoze punctuale.<\/p>\n

Oprirea anun\u021bat\u0103 \u0219i oprirea accidental\u0103 nu au
\nacela\u0219i efect <\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 oprirea Reactorului 2 ar fi anun\u021bat\u0103 cu o zi \u00eenainte,
\npia\u021ba ar avea timp s\u0103 includ\u0103 lipsa produc\u021biei nucleare \u00een
\nofertele pentru ziua urm\u0103toare. \u00cen acest caz, efectul s-ar vedea
\ndirect \u00een PZU, spune expertul.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 reactorul s-ar opri \u00eens\u0103 brusc, situa\u021bia ar fi diferit\u0103.
\nPentru ziua respectiv\u0103, pia\u021ba pentru ziua urm\u0103toare este deja
\n\u00eenchis\u0103, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t \u0219ocul nu poate fi reflectat imediat \u00een
\npre\u021bul PZU.<\/p>\n

Sistemul ar trebui s\u0103 acopere deficitul prin pia\u021ba intrazilnic\u0103,
\npia\u021ba de echilibrare, activarea rezervelor \u0219i, dac\u0103 este posibil,
\nimporturi suplimentare. \u00cen situa\u021bii extreme ar putea fi necesar\u0103
\n\u0219i reducerea consumului unor consumatori industriali.<\/p>\n

Astfel, pre\u021bul PZU al zilei respective poate s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103
\naparent neschimbat, \u00een timp ce costurile de echilibrare cresc
\nputernic. Pentru zilele urm\u0103toare, dac\u0103 reactorul r\u0103m\u00e2ne oprit,
\nefectul ar putea fi transferat \u0219i \u00een PZU.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Importurile pot acoperi o parte din deficit, dar
\nnu sunt o solu\u021bie nelimitat\u0103 <\/p>\n

Rom\u00e2nia poate compensa o parte din produc\u021bia pierdut\u0103 prin
\nimporturi. Problema este c\u0103 disponibilitatea energiei din \u021b\u0103rile
\nvecine depinde de situa\u021bia \u00eentregii regiuni. Nu conteaz\u0103 doar capacitatea fizic\u0103 a liniilor de
\ninterconexiune, ci \u0219i capacitatea comercial\u0103 disponibil\u0103,
\nproduc\u021bia din \u021b\u0103rile vecine \u0219i consumul acestora.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia, Ungaria, Serbia \u0219i alte pie\u021be din regiune ar
\navea nevoie de energie \u00een acela\u0219i timp, cei aproximativ 700 MW
\npierdu\u021bi prin oprirea Reactorului 2 ar putea fi \u00eenlocui\u021bi la
\npre\u021buri tot mai mari, explic\u0103 expertul.<\/p>\n

Scenarii de criz\u0103 din cauza debitului sc\u0103zut pe Dun\u0103re: consumul marilor industria\u0219i ar putea fi limitat. Ce garan\u021bii ofer\u0103 Bu\u0219oi pentru popula\u021bie <\/a><\/p>\n

\u00cen acest caz, ultimii megawa\u021bi necesari sistemului nu ar fi
\ncump\u0103ra\u021bi la pre\u021bul mediu al regiunii, ci la pre\u021bul marginal al
\nenergiei disponibile \u00een acel moment.<\/p>\n

Reducerea consumului poate limita pre\u021bul, dar
\nmut\u0103 costul \u00een economie <\/p>\n

\u00cen scenariile analizate de Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103, presiunea asupra PZU
\npoate fi redus\u0103 printr-o combina\u021bie de importuri \u0219i diminuare
\ntemporar\u0103 a consumului.<\/p>\n

El estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u00eenlocuirea produc\u021biei Reactorului 2 ar putea
\npresupune, \u00eentr-un anumit scenariu, aproximativ 300-400 MW de
\nimporturi suplimentare, 200-300 MW de reducere a consumului
\nindustrial, 50-100 MW de reducere comercial\u0103 \u0219i public\u0103, precum \u0219i
\nmobilizarea rezervelor \u0219i a stoc\u0103rii disponibile.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 aproximativ 500-700 MW ar fi retra\u0219i din consum, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103
\nconsider\u0103 c\u0103 media PZU ar putea r\u0103m\u00e2ne sub 1.000-1.200
\nlei\/MWh.<\/p>\n

Un pre\u021b mai mic al energiei nu ar \u00eensemna \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219ocul nu
\nare un cost economic. Reducerea consumului industrial poate \u00eensemna
\nmai pu\u021bin\u0103 produc\u021bie, comenzi am\u00e2nate, importuri suplimentare sau
\nreducerea temporar\u0103 a activit\u0103\u021bii.<\/p>\n

Prin urmare, costul opririi poate ap\u0103rea fie \u00een pre\u021bul
\nenergiei, fie \u00een economia real\u0103.<\/p>\n

Milioane de lei \u00een plus pentru \u00eenlocuirea
\nenergiei nucleare <\/p>\n

Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 numai costul suplimentar angro
\npentru \u00eenlocuirea produc\u021biei Reactorului 2 s-ar putea situa \u00eentre
\n7 \u0219i 12 milioane de lei pe zi.<\/p>\n

Estimarea nu include costurile suplimentare care ar putea ap\u0103rea
\n\u00een pia\u021ba de echilibrare, din congestii sau din \u00eentreruperea ori
\nreducerea activit\u0103\u021bii industriale.<\/p>\n

Valoarea depinde de modul \u00een care cei aproximativ 700 MW de
\nproduc\u021bie nuclear\u0103 sunt \u00eenlocui\u021bi. Energia provenit\u0103 din
\nhidrocentrale, centrale pe gaze, importuri sau reducerea consumului
\nare costuri diferite, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t impactul final nu poate fi redus
\nla o singur\u0103 sum\u0103 fix\u0103.<\/p>\n

Oprirea reactorului poate influen\u021ba \u0219i
\ncontractele pentru urm\u0103toarele 12 luni <\/p>\n

Efectele nu s-ar opri la PZU. Dac\u0103 durata indisponibilit\u0103\u021bii
\nReactorului 2 ar fi incert\u0103 sau prelungit\u0103, furnizorii \u0219i
\nproduc\u0103torii ar putea include un risc suplimentar \u00een ofertele
\npentru perioadele urm\u0103toare.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

Pentru un profil apropiat consumului real, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 estimeaz\u0103
\nc\u0103 ofertele angro aflate \u00een zona de 620-700 lei\/MWh
\nar putea urca la 670-750 lei\/MWh dac\u0103 oprirea ar fi
\nscurt\u0103 \u0219i revenirea reactorului ar fi credibil\u0103.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 oprirea s-ar prelungi, iar riscul hidrologic ar persista,
\nestimarea urc\u0103 spre 720-820 lei\/MWh. Pentru profile
\ncu consum ridicat \u00een orele de sear\u0103 \u0219i f\u0103r\u0103 flexibilitate,
\npre\u021burile ar putea dep\u0103\u0219i 800 lei\/MWh.<\/p>\n

Ce ar putea \u00eensemna pentru consumatorii casnici <\/p>\n

Pre\u021bul energiei angro nu se transfer\u0103 unu la unu \u00een factura
\nfinal\u0103. \u00cen pre\u021bul pl\u0103tit de consumator intr\u0103 \u0219i tarifele de
\nre\u021bea, taxele, contribu\u021biile, TVA \u0219i celelalte costuri ale
\nfurnizorului.<\/p>\n

Guvernul aloc\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 5,1 milioane de lei pentru lucr\u0103rile de urgen\u021b\u0103 pe Dun\u0103re. Banii merg la dragaje pentru a proteja centrala de la Cernavod\u0103 <\/a><\/p>\n

Pentru perioada septembrie 2026-septembrie 2027, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103
\nestimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 pre\u021bul final ofertat consumatorilor casnici s-ar
\nputea situa \u00eentre 1,40 \u0219i 1,62 lei\/kWh, TVA inclus,
\n\u00een func\u021bie de furnizor \u0219i zona de distribu\u021bie.<\/p>\n

\u00cen scenariul unor oferte foarte competitive sau ale unor
\nproduc\u0103tori integra\u021bi, intervalul estimat este de 1,25-1,40
\nlei\/kWh. Pentru ofertele dominante ale pie\u021bei, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103
\nindic\u0103 1,48-1,56 lei\/kWh, iar ofertele care includ
\no prim\u0103 mai mare de risc ar putea ajunge la 1,60-1,75
\nlei\/kWh.<\/p>\n

Estimarea presupune c\u0103 tarifele reglementate nu cresc substan\u021bial
\n\u00een 2027 \u0219i c\u0103 nu apare un alt \u0219oc major pe pia\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 oprirea Reactorului 2 ar fi prelungit\u0103, iarna ar fi foarte
\nrece, iar importurile ar r\u0103m\u00e2ne saturate, Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103 consider\u0103
\nposibil ca ofertele s\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 1,65-1,75 lei\/kWh.<\/p>\n

Nu exist\u0103 un singur pre\u021b al opririi Reactorului
\n2 <\/p>\n

O eventual\u0103 oprire a Reactorului 2 din cauza debitului sc\u0103zut al
\nDun\u0103rii nu ar conduce automat la un anumit pre\u021b al energiei.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

\u00cen scenariul favorabil, importurile, produc\u021bia intern\u0103 \u0219i
\nreducerea consumului ar putea acoperi o mare parte din energia
\npierdut\u0103, limit\u00e2nd cre\u0219terea PZU.<\/p>\n

\u00centr-un scenariu nefavorabil, \u00een care Rom\u00e2nia are nevoie de
\nenergie \u00een acela\u0219i timp cu alte state din regiune, produc\u021bia
\neolian\u0103 \u0219i solar\u0103 este redus\u0103, iar capacitatea de import este
\naproape de limit\u0103, presiunea s-ar transfera rapid \u00een pre\u021bul
\nmarginal.<\/p>\n

Astfel, potrivit scenariilor prezentate de Dumitru Chis\u0103li\u021b\u0103,
\ndiferen\u021ba dintre un sistem care reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 energie
\nsuplimentar\u0103 \u0219i unul care trebuie s\u0103 reduc\u0103 cererea poate \u00eensemna
\nsute sau chiar mii de lei pe MWh<\/a> \u00een anumite intervale.<\/p>\n

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