{"id":261505,"date":"2026-08-13T19:45:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T19:45:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/261505\/"},"modified":"2026-08-13T19:45:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T19:45:11","slug":"putin-nu-poate-darama-usa-nato-asa-ca-incearca-sa-intre-pe-fereastra-sustine-james-stavridis-fostul-comandant-suprem-al-fortelor-aliate-din-europa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/261505\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin nu poate d\u0103r\u00e2ma u\u0219a NATO, a\u0219a c\u0103 \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 intre pe fereastr\u0103, sus\u021bine James Stavridis, fostul Comandant Suprem al For\u021belor Aliate din Europa"},"content":{"rendered":"

Se pare c\u0103 dictatorul rus Vladimir Putin ia \u00een considerare testarea consolid\u0103rii NATO \u00een urm\u0103torii ani. \u00cen ciuda cheltuielilor de ap\u0103rare reduse ale Rusiei \u0219i a faptului c\u0103 este aparent preocupat\u0103 de r\u0103zboiul din Ucraina, Moscova pare s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 s\u0103 testeze alian\u021ba, scrie James Stavridis, fostul Comandant Suprem al For\u021belor Aliate din Europa, \u00eentr-un articol pentru Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

\"James <\/p>\n

James Stavridis, fostul Comandant Suprem al For\u021belor Aliate din Europa\/FOTO:Profimedia<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

S\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103, o dron\u0103 care transporta explozibili\u00a0a fost g\u0103sit\u0103 pe aeroportul Leipzig\/Halle din Germania<\/a>\u00a0(Rusia neag\u0103 implicarea). Recent, o rachet\u0103 de croazier\u0103 ruseasc\u0103 s-a pr\u0103bu\u0219it \u00een Polonia, explod\u00e2nd pe un c\u00e2mp. Ar putea fi vorba de muni\u021bii care s-au ab\u0103tut de la \u021bintele propuse \u00een Ucraina? Posibil. Dar, al\u0103turi de avertismentele agen\u021biilor de informa\u021bii americane cu privire la planurile Rusiei pentru NATO, aceste incidente creeaz\u0103 o imagine amenin\u021b\u0103toare.<\/p>\n

De ce a ales Putin acest moment anume pentru a-\u0219i intensifica provoc\u0103rile? \u0218i c\u00e2t de probabil este ca o astfel de strategie s\u0103-i promoveze obiectivele generale, at\u00e2t \u00een \u200b\u200bUcraina, c\u00e2t \u0219i \u00een Europa de Vest \u00een sens mai larg?<\/p>\n

Potrivit lui Stavridis, c\u00e2nd a fost Comandant Suprem al For\u021belor Aliate NATO \u00eentre 2009 \u0219i 2013, alian\u021ba a avut o rela\u021bie destul de constructiv\u0103 cu Moscova. Cartierul general militar al NATO de l\u00e2ng\u0103 Bruxelles avea un mic grup de leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu Rusia. Moscova \u0219i alian\u021ba au cooperat \u00een lupta \u00eempotriva pirateriei, traficului de droguri \u0219i terorismului, \u00een special \u00een Afganistan. \u00cens\u0103 invazia Ucrainei de c\u0103tre Putin \u00een 2014 a dezv\u0103luit adev\u0103ratele inten\u021bii ale Kremlinului: s\u0103 cucereasc\u0103 Ucraina pentru vasta sa bog\u0103\u021bie \u0219i cei 44 de milioane de cet\u0103\u021beni, iar apoi s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103 aceste resurse pentru a for\u021ba Europa s\u0103 se supun\u0103.<\/p>\n

Putin \u00een\u021belege c\u0103 va pierde \u00een Ucraina <\/p>\n

Planul de ast\u0103zi este diferit. Putin \u00een\u021belege c\u0103 va pierde \u00een Ucraina, confrunt\u00e2ndu-se cu o combina\u021bie de curaj \u0219i determinare a Kievului, utilizarea inteligent\u0103 a dronelor \u00een lupt\u0103 \u0219i cantit\u0103\u021bile uria\u0219e de arme americane \u0219i europene. Din perspectiva Moscovei, cheia revenirii la ofensiv\u0103 este simpl\u0103: blocarea ajutorului acordat ucrainenilor.<\/p>\n

publicitate”); background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat;”><\/p>\n

De\u0219i SUA \u0219i-au retras deja sprijinul larg pe care l-au oferit c\u00e2ndva Kievului, din fericire, europenii \u0219i-au intensificat ajutorul. Putin se bazeaz\u0103 pe faptul c\u0103, dac\u0103 va putea descuraja unii europeni s\u0103 ajute Ucraina prin intimidarea lor cu o combina\u021bie de amenin\u021b\u0103ri nucleare \u0219i r\u0103zboi hibrid, va putea diviza Alian\u021ba \u0219i \u00ee\u0219i va realiza ambi\u021biile.<\/p>\n

Stavridis sugereaz\u0103 s\u0103 ni-l imagin\u0103m pe Putin ca pe un sp\u0103rg\u0103tor care, atac\u00e2nd Ucraina, a \u00eencercat s\u0103 sparg\u0103 u\u0219a principal\u0103 a Europei. U\u0219a a cedat, a\u0219a c\u0103 el va \u00eencerca s\u0103 intre printr-o fereastr\u0103 sau printr-o \u201eu\u0219\u0103 din spate\u201d. Aceasta va implica probabil continuarea lans\u0103rii de muni\u021bii care lovesc \u201eaccidental\u201d centrele de transport sau \u00een apropierea acestora.<\/p>\n

Ucraina se apropie de palatul lui Putin. Atacurile cu drone lovesc sistemele de ap\u0103rare din jurul re\u0219edin\u021bei de la Marea Neagr\u0103, \u201el\u0103s\u00e2nd-o neprotejat\u0103\u201d <\/a><\/p>\n

Este probabil ca Rusia s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i intensifice atacurile cibernetice deja active, viz\u00e2nd probabil anumite instala\u021bii pentru a intimida civilii (sisteme de aprovizionare cu combustibil, transportul alimentelor, unit\u0103\u021bi medicale). \u00cen timp ce institu\u021biile financiare \u0219i sistemele militare europene \u0219i americane sunt destul de bine protejate, infrastructura industrial\u0103 (electricitate, alimentare cu ap\u0103, centre de date \u0219i gaze naturale) este mai vulnerabil\u0103.<\/p>\n

Se a\u0219teapt\u0103 o cre\u0219tere a amenin\u021b\u0103rilor nucleare <\/p>\n

Se a\u0219teapt\u0103, de asemenea, o cre\u0219tere a amenin\u021b\u0103rilor nucleare.\u00a0Putin amenin\u021b\u0103 cu arme nucleare<\/a>\u00a0de patru ani, \u00een mare parte prin declara\u021bii publice ale fostului pre\u0219edinte rus Dmitri Medvedev \u0219i ale actualului ministru de externe Serghei Lavrov. El ar putea muta arme nucleare \u00een vestul Rusiei\u00a0sau \u00een Belarus<\/a>\u00a0pentru a-\u0219i demonstra capacit\u0103\u021bile.<\/p>\n

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Cea mai agresiv\u0103 mi\u0219care a lui Putin ar fi trimiterea unor for\u021be speciale, care probabil nu ar opera \u00een uniform\u0103 ruseasc\u0103, \u00een statele baltice Estonia, Letonia sau Lituania. Ace\u0219ti \u201eomule\u021bi verzi\u201d ar putea efectua opera\u021biuni, cum ar fi sabotarea fizic\u0103 a re\u021belelor de transport \u0219i energie. Ar putea lansa drone mici, bazate pe inteligen\u021b\u0103 artificial\u0103, conectate la re\u021bele comerciale.<\/p>\n

Alian\u021ba ar trebui s\u0103 ia \u00een serios aceste amenin\u021b\u0103ri acum, \u00eenainte ca situa\u021bia s\u0103 necesite un r\u0103spuns militar la scar\u0103 larg\u0103. NATO ar trebui s\u0103 organizeze audieri publice la Bruxelles pe marginea acestei amenin\u021b\u0103ri \u0219i s\u0103-i \u00eencredin\u021beze Comandantului Suprem al For\u021belor Aliate sarcina de a prezenta planuri detaliate pentru a contracara Rusia. Acestea ar trebui s\u0103 includ\u0103 exerci\u021bii la scar\u0103 larg\u0103 la nivelul \u00eentregii Alian\u021be, combin\u00e2nd serviciile de informa\u021bii americane cu for\u021bele terestre europene. O campanie cibernetic\u0103 defensiv\u0103 robust\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 fie o component\u0103 a acestora.<\/p>\n

NATO trebuie, de asemenea, s\u0103 elaboreze planuri pentru un r\u0103spuns propor\u021bional. Este deosebit de important ca Alian\u021ba s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i demonstreze capacit\u0103\u021bile \u00een domeniul securit\u0103\u021bii cibernetice, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t Putin s\u0103 devin\u0103 con\u0219tient de propriile vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bi \u0219i s\u0103 \u00een\u021beleag\u0103 c\u0103 nu va putea ataca SUA sau Europa cu impunitate. Alian\u021ba are cu siguran\u021b\u0103 un poten\u021bial de lupt\u0103 mai mare dec\u00e2t adversarul s\u0103u \u0219i poate r\u0103spunde decisiv pe c\u00e2mpul de lupt\u0103. Enclava rus\u0103 Kaliningrad este o \u021bint\u0103 atractiv\u0103 pentru un r\u0103spuns direct, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere concentrarea for\u021belor militare vulnerabile situate acolo.<\/p>\n

\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, Putin trebuie s\u0103 demonstreze c\u0103 NATO va r\u0103spunde cu for\u021b\u0103 dac\u0103 Rusia continu\u0103 pe aceast\u0103 cale periculoas\u0103. Desf\u0103\u0219urarea de exerci\u021bii bazate pe planurile opera\u021bionale de baz\u0103 ale Alian\u021bei pentru ap\u0103rarea statelor baltice ar fi un semnal direct.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 Rusia testeaz\u0103 puterea NATO \u0219i nu \u00eent\u00e2mpin\u0103 un r\u0103spuns decisiv, probabil va merge mai departe. Dac\u0103 \u00eent\u00e2mpin\u0103 o rezisten\u021b\u0103 puternic\u0103, se va retrage. NATO are suficient\u0103 putere militar\u0103 pentru a contracara un Kremlin reticent la riscuri. Dar NATO trebuie s\u0103 g\u0103seasc\u0103 hot\u0103r\u00e2rea de a-\u0219i folosi puterea \u00eenainte ca Putin s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la concluzia c\u0103 Alian\u021ba este incapabil\u0103 s\u0103 riposteze, spune Stavridis.<\/p>\n

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