The Economist<\/a>.<\/p>\nO strategie de presiune f\u0103r\u0103 rezultate clare<\/p>\n
De la revenirea sa la Casa Alb\u0103, Donald Trump a reluat campania de presiune \u00eempotriva Beijingului. Dac\u0103 politica sa de ap\u0103rare fa\u021b\u0103 de China r\u0103m\u00e2ne neclar\u0103 – nimeni nu \u0219tie exact dac\u0103 ar fi dispus s\u0103 apere Taiwanul sau alia\u021bii SUA – cea comercial\u0103 este limpede: mai multe tarife, mai multe controale asupra exporturilor tehnologice \u0219i sanc\u021biuni agresive.<\/p>\n
\u021ainta declarat\u0103: s\u0103 \u00eencetineasc\u0103 dezvoltarea tehnologic\u0103 a Chinei \u0219i s\u0103 ob\u021bin\u0103 concesii comerciale \u0219i financiare. Unii consilieri visau chiar la o \u201emare \u00een\u021belegere\u201d, prin care China ar fi promis reforme economice \u00een schimbul relax\u0103rii presiunii americane.<\/p>\n
Beijingul rezist\u0103 \u0219i contraatac\u0103<\/p>\n
Dup\u0103 \u0219ase luni, China respir\u0103 mai u\u0219or dec\u00e2t America, observ\u0103 The Economist.<\/p>\n
\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, Beijingul a dovedit c\u0103 poate suporta presiunea \u0219i r\u0103spunde cu o eficien\u021b\u0103 surprinz\u0103toare. Unii critici ai lui Trump pun acest lucru pe seama sindromului TACO (\u201eTrump Always Chickens Out\u201d – Trump \u00eentotdeauna d\u0103 \u00eenapoi).<\/p>\n
Tarifele impuse de Trump \u00een aprilie – numite simbolic \u201ede Ziua Eliber\u0103rii\u201d – au fost anulate rapid dup\u0103 o c\u0103dere a pie\u021bei de pe Wall Street. C\u00e2nd China a limitat exporturile de p\u0103m\u00e2nturi rare, Trump a amenin\u021bat cu tarife de 100%, dar a dat \u00eenapoi.<\/p>\n
Cei care cred c\u0103 China este \u00een criz\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 observe c\u0103, \u00een acest an, bursa de la Shanghai a crescut cu 34% \u00een dolari – de dou\u0103 ori mai mult dec\u00e2t indicele S&P 500, noteaz\u0103 publica\u021bia britanic\u0103.<\/p>\n
Riposte precise \u0219i adaptarea lan\u021burilor de aprovizionare<\/p>\n
China a r\u0103spuns simetric \u0219i calculat. Dup\u0103 ce Trump a impus taxe suplimentare navelor container chineze, Beijingul a introdus propriile taxe portuare. A amenin\u021bat cu investiga\u021bii antitrust companii precum DuPont, Google, Nvidia \u0219i Qualcomm, iar decizia de a nu mai cump\u0103ra soia american\u0103 – o pia\u021b\u0103 de 12 miliarde de dolari – a lovit exact \u00een fermierii din statele care l-au sus\u021binut pe Trump.<\/p>\n
\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, Xi Jinping a accelerat procesul de eliminare a dependen\u021bei de furnizorii str\u0103ini, transform\u00e2nd China \u00eentr-o verig\u0103 indispensabil\u0103 pentru lan\u021burile de aprovizionare globale.<\/p>\n
China \u00ee\u0219i impune propriile reguli de joc<\/p>\n
Pe fondul acestor tensiuni, Beijingul experimenteaz\u0103 un nou set de norme comerciale globale – poate cel mai important rezultat al acestui conflict. \u021ainta este clar\u0103: construirea unui sistem condus de China, pe ruinele vechii ordini comerciale liberale dominate de SUA. \u00cen ultimele 12 luni, exporturile chineze au crescut cu peste 8%, \u00een timp ce cele c\u0103tre America au sc\u0103zut cu 27%.<\/p>\n
Controlul aproape total asupra pie\u021bei p\u0103m\u00e2nturilor rare \u00eei ofer\u0103 Chinei un instrument de presiune global. Prin sistemul de licen\u021biere a acestor resurse, Beijingul copiaz\u0103 – \u0219i dep\u0103\u0219e\u0219te – modelul american de control asupra industriei semiconductorilor, puncteaz\u0103 The Economist.<\/p>\n
Xi Jinping, \u00eent\u0103rit de conflict<\/p>\n
Paradoxal, r\u0103zboiul comercial nu l-a sl\u0103bit pe Xi Jinping \u0219i Partidul Comunist, ci dimpotriv\u0103. \u00cen pofida problemelor economice – sectorul imobiliar \u00een colaps, consum sc\u0103zut, antreprenori timora\u021bi – retorica agresiv\u0103 a lui Trump a consolidat nara\u021biunea lui Xi despre o Chin\u0103 asediat\u0103 care trebuie s\u0103 devin\u0103 o superputere tehnologic\u0103 \u0219i industrial\u0103.<\/p>\n
\u00cen aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, conducerea Partidului Comunist discut\u0103 un nou plan cincinal, care urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 \u201edubleze miza\u201d pe strategia tehnona\u021bionalist\u0103 a lui Xi.<\/p>\n
Riscurile \u0219i consecin\u021bele unei victorii<\/p>\n
Totu\u0219i, succesul Chinei nu este lipsit de riscuri. Redirec\u021bionarea exporturilor spre alte pie\u021be ar putea provoca reac\u021bii de protec\u021bionism, iar sistemul s\u0103u incipient de licen\u021biere global\u0103 ar putea deveni un co\u0219mar birocratic.<\/p>\n
The Economist avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u201efolosirea puterii economice ca arm\u0103 este periculoas\u0103\u201d: pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce o \u021bar\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i impune domina\u021bia, ceilal\u021bi caut\u0103 solu\u021bii pentru a-\u0219i reduce dependen\u021ba.<\/p>\n
O aparent\u0103 destindere<\/p>\n
Dac\u0103 Trump \u0219i Xi se vor \u00eent\u00e2lni \u00een Coreea de Sud, ar putea conveni o scurt\u0103 pauz\u0103 \u00een ostilit\u0103\u021bi – un armisti\u021biu simbolic. America ar putea suspenda unele tarife, China ar am\u00e2na restric\u021biile asupra p\u0103m\u00e2nturilor rare, iar \u00een schimb ar putea reap\u0103rea achizi\u021biile de soia \u0219i discu\u021biile privind v\u00e2nzarea TikTok c\u0103tre investitori americani.<\/p>\n
Dar The Economist avertizeaz\u0103: ceea ce se contureaz\u0103 nu este reconcilierea a dou\u0103 puteri, ci confruntarea a doi gigan\u021bi care \u00ee\u0219i transform\u0103 puterea economic\u0103 \u00een arm\u0103. Chiar dac\u0103 China c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 r\u0103zboiul comercial al lui Trump, retragerea global\u0103 din comer\u021bul liber \u00eei face, \u00een cele din urm\u0103, pe to\u021bi perdan\u021bi.<\/p>\n
G.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rela\u021bia dintre Statele Unite \u0219i China a ajuns \u00eentr-un punct de tensiune f\u0103r\u0103 precedent. \u00cen timp ce Donald…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":27123,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[32,33,31,12319,12320,36,37,27,74,34,35,25,12321,9832,12322,41,40,38,39,26,12323,12324,12325,12326,28,29,30,12327,12328,12329,71,72,73],"class_list":{"0":"post-27122","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-international","8":"tag-breaking-news","9":"tag-breakingnews","10":"tag-cele-mai-populare-subiecte","11":"tag-donald-trump-china","12":"tag-donald-trump-xi-jinping","13":"tag-featured-news","14":"tag-featurednews","15":"tag-headlines","16":"tag-international","17":"tag-latest-news","18":"tag-latestnews","19":"tag-news","20":"tag-pamanturi-rare-china-sua","21":"tag-razboi-comercial-sua-china","22":"tag-restrictii-pamanturi-rare-china","23":"tag-ro","24":"tag-romana","25":"tag-romania","26":"tag-romanian","27":"tag-stiri","28":"tag-sua-china","29":"tag-tarife-sua-china","30":"tag-tarife-sua-china-efecte","31":"tag-tarife-trump-china","32":"tag-titluri","33":"tag-top-stories","34":"tag-topstories","35":"tag-trump-china","36":"tag-trump-china-metale-rare","37":"tag-trump-china-razboi-comercial","38":"tag-world","39":"tag-world-news","40":"tag-worldnews"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27122\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}