{"id":76303,"date":"2025-12-28T06:50:07","date_gmt":"2025-12-28T06:50:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/76303\/"},"modified":"2025-12-28T06:50:07","modified_gmt":"2025-12-28T06:50:07","slug":"se-sparge-bula-ai-semne-de-avertizare-si-posibilele-consecinte","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/76303\/","title":{"rendered":"Se sparge bula AI? Semne de avertizare \u0219i posibilele consecin\u021be"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Chiar dac\u0103 pia\u021ba continu\u0103 s\u0103 parieze masiv pe inteligen\u021ba artificial\u0103, domina\u021bia unei singure metode de a construi AI \u2013 care p\u00e2n\u0103 acum nu a adus c\u00e2\u0219tiguri pe m\u0103sura investi\u021biilor \u2013 alimenteaz\u0103 temerile privind existen\u021ba unei bule pe punctul de a se sparge.<\/p>\n<p>Tom Clarke, editor de \u0219tiin\u021b\u0103 \u0219i tehnologie la <a href=\"https:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/fears-grow-of-ai-bubble-and-here-are-the-pressure-points-that-could-burst-it-13486328\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Sky News<\/a>, a discutat cu mai mul\u021bi anali\u0219ti din domeniu despre cauzele care ar putea duce la un astfel de deznod\u0103m\u00e2nt \u0219i despre consecin\u021bele posibile.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eDac\u0103 dispar c\u00e2\u021biva investitori de capital de risc, nimeni nu va fi cu adev\u0103rat foarte trist\u201d, spune Gary Marcus, cercet\u0103tor \u00een AI \u0219i profesor emerit la Universitatea din New York.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cens\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 o mare parte din cre\u0219terea economic\u0103 a SUA din acest an se datoreaz\u0103 investi\u021biilor \u00een inteligen\u021ba artificial\u0103, \u201eraza de explozie\u201d ar putea fi mult mai mare, avertizeaz\u0103 Marcus.<\/p>\n<p>\u201e\u00cen cel mai r\u0103u caz, \u00eentreaga economie se pr\u0103bu\u0219e\u0219te. B\u0103ncile nu mai au lichidit\u0103\u0163i, apar salv\u0103ri financiare, iar contribuabilii ajung s\u0103 pl\u0103teasc\u0103.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Exist\u0103 deja c\u00e2teva semne \u00eengrijor\u0103toare c\u0103 ne \u00eendrept\u0103m c\u0103tre un astfel de scenariu.<\/p>\n<p>Se estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta \u0219i Oracle vor cheltui aproximativ 1 trilion de dolari pe AI p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2026.<\/p>\n<p>OpenAI, compania care a creat modelul lingvistic revolu\u021bionar ChatGPT, s-a angajat, la r\u00e2ndul ei, s\u0103 investeasc\u0103 1,4 trilioane de dolari \u00een urm\u0103torii trei ani.<\/p>\n<p>\u00centre timp, \u00eens\u0103, investitorii nu ob\u021bin prea mult \u00een schimbul acestor sume uria\u0219e.<\/p>\n<p>Clarke ofer\u0103 exemplul OpenAI, care se a\u0219teapt\u0103 la un profit de pu\u021bin peste 20 de miliarde de dolari \u00een 2025 \u2013 o sum\u0103 considerabil\u0103, dar cu mult sub nivelul cheltuielilor asumate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eDimensiunea boom-ului AI \u2013 sau a bulei, \u00een func\u021bie de perspectiv\u0103 \u2013 \u021bine de modul \u00een care este construit\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Revolu\u021bia AI a \u00eenceput \u00een 2023, odat\u0103 cu lansarea ChatGPT-4, care a adus un salt spectaculos \u00een limbaj natural, programare \u0219i generare de imagini.<\/p>\n<p>Progresul s-a bazat \u00een principal pe scalarea masiv\u0103 a puterii de calcul \u0219i a volumului de date.<\/p>\n<p>GPT-4 a folosit de mii de ori mai mult\u0103 capacitate de procesare dec\u00e2t predecesorul s\u0103u, GPT-2, \u0219i a fost antrenat pe un num\u0103r uria\u0219 de parametri \u2013 practic toate datele text, imagine \u0219i video disponibile pe Internet.<\/p>\n<p>Aceast\u0103 abordare a dus la o explozie a cererii pentru cipuri GPU de ultim\u0103 genera\u021bie, aliment\u00e2nd <a href=\"https:\/\/spotmedia.ro\/stiri\/economie\/nvidia-atinge-o-capitalizare-bursiera-record-de-4-trilioane-de-dolari-prima-companie-din-istorie-care-reuseste-acest-lucru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">cre\u0219terea accelerat\u0103 a Nvidia.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>A urmat apoi construc\u021bia, aproape peste noapte, a unei noi genera\u021bii de mega-centre de date, menite s\u0103 ruleze aceste cipuri \u0219i s\u0103 sus\u021bin\u0103 noile genera\u021bii de AI.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cens\u0103, se \u00eentreab\u0103 Clarke, vor produce aceste \u201ecreiere\u201d uria\u0219e \u0219i bani?<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, centrele de date AI vor necesita, cel mai probabil, moderniz\u0103ri constante. Spre deosebire de alte tipuri de infrastructur\u0103, apari\u021bia lor relativ recent\u0103 face dificil\u0103 estimarea unei \u201ecurbe de depreciere\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Cipurile AI, dar \u0219i sistemele de r\u0103cire, comutare \u0219i cablare ale centrelor de date vor trebui \u00eenlocuite periodic, ad\u00e2ncind pr\u0103pastia dintre cheltuieli \u0219i venituri.<\/p>\n<p>\u00cen plus, r\u0103m\u00e2ne neclar de unde vor veni profiturile care s\u0103 justifice investi\u021biile masive \u00een AI. De\u0219i adoptarea tehnologiei este \u00een cre\u0219tere \u2013 un semn vizibil fiind explozia de con\u021binut generat de AI pe re\u021belele sociale \u2013 doar 5% dintre cei aproximativ 800 de milioane de \u201eutilizatori activi s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nal\u201d ai OpenAI sunt abona\u021bi pl\u0103titori.<\/p>\n<p>Situa\u021bia nu arat\u0103 mult mai bine nici \u00een mediul de afaceri.<\/p>\n<p>Potrivit Biroului de Recens\u0103m\u00e2nt al SUA, la \u00eenceputul lui 2025, doar 8\u201312% dintre companii declarau c\u0103 folosesc AI pentru a produce bunuri \u0219i servicii. \u00cen cazul companiilor mari, adop\u021bia a crescut temporar la 14% \u00een iunie, dar a sc\u0103zut din nou la 12% \u00een lunile urm\u0103toare.<\/p>\n<p>Conform analizei McKinsey, majoritatea companiilor se afl\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 \u00een faza de testare a AI sau analizeaz\u0103 cum s\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i extind\u0103 utilizarea.<\/p>\n<p>\u00centrebarea esen\u021bial\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne, \u00eens\u0103, a\u0219a cum subliniaz\u0103 Clarke: c\u00e2t timp vor fi dispu\u0219i ac\u021bionarii s\u0103 a\u0219tepte p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd profiturile vor ajunge m\u0103car aproape de a acoperi investi\u021biile?<\/p>\n<p>\u201eCheltuie\u0219ti trilioane de dolari, profiturile sunt neglijabile, iar deprecierea este mare. Nu are sens. \u0218i atunci apare \u00eentrebarea: c\u00e2nd \u00ee\u0219i va da seama pia\u021ba de asta?\u201d, avertizeaz\u0103 Gary Marcus.<\/p>\n<p>C.S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Chiar dac\u0103 pia\u021ba continu\u0103 s\u0103 parieze masiv pe inteligen\u021ba artificial\u0103, domina\u021bia unei singure metode de a construi AI&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":76304,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[97,8834,96,26958,179,8896,8902,26959,26960,41,40,38,39,26961,26962],"class_list":{"0":"post-76303","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-afaceri","8":"tag-afaceri","9":"tag-bula-ai","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-europa-sparge-bula-ai","12":"tag-inteligenta-artificiala","13":"tag-inteligenta-artificiala-efecte","14":"tag-inteligenta-artificiala-productivitate","15":"tag-pericole-inteligenta-artificiala","16":"tag-prabusire-ai","17":"tag-ro","18":"tag-romana","19":"tag-romania","20":"tag-romanian","21":"tag-sua-bula-ai","22":"tag-trump-bula-ai"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@ro\/115795868081517793","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76303","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76303\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/ro\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}