Vasif Huseynov is the head of the Western Studies Department at the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center) in Baku, Azerbaijan. He has previously worked for the Center for Strategic Studies (SAM), Khazar University, and ADA University. He holds a BA in International Relations from the Academy of Public Administration in Baku, an MA in Global Political Economy from the University of Kassel (Germany), and a PhD in Political Science from the University of Göttingen (Germany). His MA and PhD studies were supported by full scholarships from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). His book Geopolitical Rivalries in the ‘Common Neighborhood’: Russia’s Conflict with the West, Soft Power, and Neoclassical Realism was published in 2019.

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Swedish military intelligence recently claimed that Russia is running out of steam in continuing the war. So, how strong is Russia? Is it out of steam?

It depends from whose perspective you analyze Russia. If you check Russia’s strengths, its military, economic capabilities from the perspective of post-soviet countries, from Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia, Russia is very powerful, very big, and very strong. In the South Caucasus, there are three countries, and Azerbaijan is the biggest one with a 10 million population. But compared to Russia, we are not that strong militarily or economically. Russia is a country that ruled over the South Caucasus with a vision for several decades, so it’s not an outsider—Russia is part of our region. That’s why we have to deal with this fact. We have to consider Russia’s interests and concerns when we make critical foreign policy decisions.

But how strong is the Russian economy? Can the country finance its war against Ukraine?

Obviously, Russian economy is not doing that well compared to the period prior to the war. By our observations, it is facing huge challenges. It is understandable under these sanctions: it is very hard for the Russian government to keep the momentum.

‘We have to consider Russia’s interests and concerns when we make critical foreign policy decisions’

Therefore, it is clear that they have very big difficulties economically, and despite all the efforts of the government, it looks like it has not been able to overcome the challenges yet.

What are the most likely scenarios for ending the war?

The war obviously started due to very critical security questions. From Russia’s perspective, the status of Ukraine, particularly the potential enlargement of NATO towards Ukraine was an alarming signal, and they wanted to prevent it. So Russia has made a lot of sacrifices to achieve this goal. And therefore, I believe that Russia will try to achieve some of the original objectives before stopping the war. It wouldn’t make sense for them that after so many economic and other sacrifices they just leave it that way without reaching some of the core objectives.

Vasif Huseynov PHOTO: Tamás Gyurkovits/Hungarian Conservative

Is Russia still strong enough to maintain the former soviet sphere of influence in the Caucasus?

Russia has very strong economic links with the South Caucasian countries. Armenia is part of Eurasian Economic Union: it is a free trade area, a customs area. Armenia is in close cooperation with Russia, which is the reason why now they are facing challenges. For example, its entire railway network is under Russian control, as it belongs to a Russian company. A significant part of its foreign trade is with Russia, a significant part of gas products are coming from Russia, and therefore it is much more difficult for Armenia to reorient itself. Despite the fact that Russia doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Georgia, their trade turnover is growing.

‘Russia will try to achieve some of the original objectives before stopping the war’

In the case of Azerbaijan, the situation is different. Azerbaijan’s trade turnover is particularly oriented towards the European Union. Around 50 per cent of our total trade is with the EU countries. Russia is a very important market, particularly for the export of non-oil and gas products, and last year, our trade turnover with Russia reached around $5 billion, which it is big number for us. Azerbaijan has very independent economic positioning in the region. We have built very strong relations with the European Union and Türkiye, we export oil to Israel and to some other countries, and it gives us economic sovereignty.

There is a power struggle between the EU and Russia to win your region. What hard and soft power tools do Russia and the EU use in the Caucasus?

The EU doesn’t apply hard power in the South Caucasus. It was one of the rare cases recently, when the EU deployed a civilian monitoring mission to Armenia. Russia particularly characterized it as a NATO mission in Armenia. But in terms of soft power and economy, the EU is visible everywhere. All three countries of the South Caucasus are very much interested in cooperation with the EU, particularly in economy. Georgia has a free trade agreement with the EU and also a visa-free regime. Armenia tries to minimize dependency on Russian economy and get closer to the EU. But it is very difficult, because their economy is so much dependent on Russia.

‘Azerbaijan has very independent economic positioning in the region’

Russia has very strong hard power presence in the South Caucasus. Russia has a military base in Armenia. It has control over two breakaway regions of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Of course, these two regions are presented by the Russians as independent republics, but Azerbaijan and a significant number of countries in the world recognize these territories as occupied by Russia.

Azerbaijan is the only country which does not have Russian or other foreign troops on its soil. So, in that context, Azerbaijan is also the most independent one, which is also visible in its relations with Russia. When disputes happen with Russia, Azerbaijan is in a position to demand full respect for its rights and also equal treatment.

Is there any appetite or capability in the Kremlin to escalate the conflict with the West in Eastern Europe?

I don’t think that Russia is interested in expanding the battlefield in its confrontation with the EU and NATO. Russia has so far used up its military and political resources in Ukraine, and I don’t believe that for Russia it would be favourable to expand the battlefield without reaching its core objectives in Ukraine. For Russia right now, it would be much more favourable to reach a certain deal in Ukraine, and later on to get rid of the sanctions, because under these sanctions, it’s clear that the Russian economy is going to collapse. And any other war in Europe wouldn’t bring any geopolitical or economic benefits to Russia. That’s my observation.

Vasif Huseynov PHOTO: Tamás Gyurkovits/Hungarian Conservative

Azerbaijan is a very important exporter of gas to the European Union. And there is a new situation: in the event of conflict involving Iran, LNG shipments can hardly get through to the European market. Does this make your country even more important, and your gas even more desirable?

Yes, Azerbaijan is a very critical country for Europe; not only for energy, but also for connectivity. Azerbaijan is the only country that you can use to transport your products to Asia without passing the territories of Russia and Iran over land passage. In that sense, Azerbaijan is indeed a very important player, and its importance has increased.

‘Under these sanctions, it’s clear that the Russian economy is going to collapse’

It’s not coincidence that just a couple of weeks after the start of the war in Iran, European Council President Costa was in Baku. He met President Ilham Aliyev, and one of the key topics that they discussed was about the increase of natural gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Europe.

Azerbaijan, at the moment, exports its national gas to 16 countries, and ten of them are in the EU. At the moment, we have a deal with the EU signed in July 2022, and according to that, Azerbaijan is expected to increase the gas supplies to Europe to 20 billion cubic metres by 2027. At the moment, we are exporting around 13 billion cubic metres per year to European countries.

We are also trying to expand the network of our customers in Europe. Just a couple of months ago, in January, Austria and Germany also joined the list of customers of Azerbaijan’s natural gas.

We understand the economic interests of Azerbaijan in the EU. But what are your political interests?

The EU is a very important partner for Azerbaijan, not only in the economic sphere, but also in terms of political relations and geopolitical cooperation. Azerbaijan is interested in expanding its network of friends, because one of the key elements of its foreign policy is multilateralism and a balanced approach. This is the reason why Azerbaijan is trying to build mutually beneficial and mutually respectful relations with all major countries.

This is also why Azerbaijan has signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. In February, Azerbaijan signed a strategic partnership declaration with the United States. Azerbaijan has strategic partnership agreements with ten EU member states, including Hungary. At the same time, Azerbaijan has allied relations with Türkiye, and there is a mutual commitment to support each other in the case of military invasion by a third country.

‘Azerbaijan is expected to increase the gas supplies to Europe to 20 billion cubic metres by 2027’

Azerbaijan has signed a declaration on allied interaction with Russia. So that’s how Azerbaijan has positioned itself geopolitically and tried to build a multivector foreign policy. In that context, Azerbaijan joined the Non-Aligned Movement in 2011, and one of the main objectives of Azerbaijan in this organization was to demonstrate to the international community that it is a non-aligned country.

Azerbaijan is not interested in joining Russia’s military blocs, and it is not interested in NATO membership. Azerbaijan is a non-aligned country and is building mutually respectful relations with all major countries. And that’s why the EU is a very important player for Azerbaijan; it is a very important actor in creating a counterbalance in the South Caucasus.

What is the significance of being partners with Hungary for Azerbaijan?

Hungary is one of the closest partners of Azerbaijan in the European Union. Hungary is the only EU member country that is part of the Organization of Turkic States, and this organization is extremely important for Azerbaijan. So Hungary is part of our broader family. Relations between the two countries have developed very significantly over the past two decades, and we have built economic partnerships, political relations, and energy connectivity in all spheres. Hungary is the only Visegrád Four country that has a stake in Azerbaijan’s energy industry.

In that context, the Organization of Turkic States is not just a political organization. It opens up huge opportunities for Hungary in relations with the entire Central Asia, plus Azerbaijan and Türkiye, economically, in terms of energy and connectivity. So it is a huge treasure for Hungary.

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