{"id":77067,"date":"2026-10-17T06:36:26","date_gmt":"2026-10-17T06:36:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/77067\/"},"modified":"2026-10-17T06:36:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-17T06:36:26","slug":"isw-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/77067\/","title":{"rendered":"ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Key Takeaways from the <a href=\"https:\/\/understandingwar.org\/research\/russia-ukraine\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2026\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ISW<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>  The fifth year of Russia\u2019s invasion is not beginning well for Moscow. Recent Ukrainian successes on the battlefield disprove Russian claims that things can only get worse for Ukraine the longer Kyiv delays surrendering to Russian demands. Events on the battlefield refute Moscow\u2019s claims that a Russian battlefield victory is inevitable and that Ukraine should surrender to Russia\u2019s demands before its position deteriorates further. Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year with Russia having failed to achieve any of its original war aims and facing setbacks on the battlefield amid mounting casualties. Russia\u2019s challenges on and off the battlefield are forcing Kremlin leadership to make difficult decisions to sustain its war effort, as ISW has long forecasted that it would have to do. The Kremlin is attempting to divert attention on the anniversary away from the Russian military\u2019s inability to achieve Putin\u2019s objectives. The Kremlin is using the SVR claims to relitigate its justifications for the war that it initiated, which has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union\u2019s participation in World War II without accomplishing any of the Kremlin\u2019s original aims. Russia is also using the SVR\u2019s claim as an excuse to threaten the UK and France with potential nuclear strikes, likely in order to disrupt ongoing discussions about Western security guarantees for Ukraine. The Kremlin may additionally be planning to blame Ukraine for a Russian-generated radiological incident in Ukraine, possibly to convince the West to abandon Ukraine or as a further attempt to break Ukrainian will to continue to resist. The SVR claim is also part of a wider Kremlin effort to justify future limited involuntary reserve callups, which are likely to be highly unpopular at home. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Slovyansk.  <\/p>\n<p class=\"single-image-container\">                                 <a href=\"https:\/\/static.kyivpost.com\/storage\/2026\/02\/25\/70719492cdb53d0b2c185639195e88cd.webp?w=2560&amp;f=webp\" data-modal=\"bs-lightbox\" data-caption=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">                                     <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"single-image\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/70719492cdb53d0b2c185639195e88cd.webp\" alt=\"\" pinger-seen=\"true\"\/>                                 <\/a>                                                                                               <\/p>\n<p>JOIN US ON TELEGRAM<\/p>\n<p>Follow our coverage of the war on the <a class=\"inarticle_link\" href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/Kyivpost_official\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">@Kyivpost_official<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>See the original <a href=\"https:\/\/understandingwar.org\/research\/russia-ukraine\/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-24-2026\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Key Takeaways from the ISW: The fifth year of Russia\u2019s invasion is not beginning well for Moscow. Recent&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":77068,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5],"class_list":["post-77067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-russia","tag-russia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77067\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/russia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}