{"id":137859,"date":"2026-01-16T08:19:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T08:19:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/137859\/"},"modified":"2026-01-16T08:19:08","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T08:19:08","slug":"prognos-av-dodlighet-i-cancer-socialstyrelsen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/137859\/","title":{"rendered":"Prognos\u00a0av d\u00f6dlighet i cancer &#8211; Socialstyrelsen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>                                                                                                    T\u00e4ljare<\/p>\n<p>F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat antal d\u00f6dsfall med aktuell cancerform som underliggande d\u00f6dsorsak.<\/p>\n<p>                                                    N\u00e4mnare<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Framskrivning av medelbefolkningen i riket (eller respektive grupp), dividerat med 100\u00a0000.<\/p>\n<p>Socialstyrelsen har anv\u00e4nt tv\u00e5 olika metoder f\u00f6r prognoser, ber\u00e4kningar baserade p\u00e5 konstant d\u00f6dlighet samt en modellbaserad metod som kallas NORDPRED [1, 2]. De tv\u00e5 metoderna utg\u00e5r ifr\u00e5n olika antaganden om utvecklingen av d\u00f6dlighet i cancer.<\/p>\n<p>Med konstant d\u00f6dlighet avses h\u00e4r prognoser ber\u00e4knade utifr\u00e5n antagandet om att d\u00f6dligheten (antal per 100\u00a0000) kommer att vara konstant \u00f6ver tid per cancerform, k\u00f6n och \u00e5ldersgrupp. Antalet framtida d\u00f6dsfall beror s\u00e5ledes endast p\u00e5 f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringar i befolkningens storlek och \u00e5lderssammans\u00e4ttning per cancerform och k\u00f6n. Eftersom antalet diagnostiserade cancerfall minskade under covid-19-pandemin baseras prognosen p\u00e5 d\u00f6dligheten i respektive cancerform under tidsperioden 2015\u20132019. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>En annan metod f\u00f6r att prediktera framtida d\u00f6dlighet i cancer anv\u00e4nder d\u00f6dlighet tillsammans med befolkningsframskrivningar f\u00f6r att skapa en s\u00e5 kallad \u00e5lder-period-kohort-modell [1, 2]. Modellen kan sedan anv\u00e4ndas f\u00f6r att uppskatta d\u00f6dligheten vid en viss tidpunkt i framtiden under f\u00f6ruts\u00e4ttning att f\u00f6r\u00e4ndringen av d\u00f6dligheten inom respektive \u00e5ldersgrupp under tidsperioden som anv\u00e4nds av modellen forts\u00e4tter under en viss tid fram\u00e5t samtidigt som befolkningens storlek och \u00e5lderssammans\u00e4ttning f\u00f6r\u00e4ndras enligt framskrivning. Modellerna anv\u00e4nder observerat antal d\u00f6da under de senaste tre till fem fem\u00e5rsperioderna, d\u00e4r den senaste \u00e4r 2015\u20132019.<\/p>\n<p>Framtida befolkningsstorlek per k\u00f6n, \u00e5lder, \u00e5r och kommun har tagits fram av Statistikmyndigheten SCB, och anv\u00e4nds i b\u00e5da metoderna.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00f6dligheten utg\u00e5r ifr\u00e5n underliggande d\u00f6dsorsak i d\u00f6dsorsaksregistret, som under den aktuella tidsperioden registrerades med de internationella versionerna av ICD8, ICD9 och ICD10.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>All cancer: Samtliga cancerformer utom icke-melanom hudcancer.<\/li>\n<li>All cancer, vuxna: Samtliga cancerformer utom icke-melanom hudcancer och barncancer.<\/li>\n<li>Barncancer: All cancer hos barn 0-19 \u00e5r.<\/li>\n<li>Lungcancer: ICD8\/9: 162; ICD10: C34<\/li>\n<li>Prostatacancer (endast m\u00e4n): ICD8\/9: 185; ICD10: C61<\/li>\n<li>Bukspottk\u00f6rtelcancer: ICD8\/9: 157; ICD10: C25<\/li>\n<li>Tjocktarmscancer: ICD8\/9: 153; ICD10: C18<\/li>\n<li>\u00c4ndtarmscancer: ICD8\/9: 154.0-154.1; ICD10: C19, C20<\/li>\n<li>Br\u00f6stcancer (endast kvinnor): ICD8\/9: 174; ICD10: C50<\/li>\n<li>Urinbl\u00e5secancer: ICD8: 188, 223.3, 237.6; ICD9: 188, 223.3, 236.7; ICD10: C67, D09.0, D30.3, D41.4<\/li>\n<li>Njurcancer: ICD8: 189.0, 223.0, 237.3; ICD9: 189.0, 223.0; ICD10: C64, D300, D410<\/li>\n<li>Mags\u00e4ckscancer: ICD8\/9: 151; ICD10: C16<\/li>\n<li>Matstrupscancer: ICD8\/9: 150; ICD10: C15<\/li>\n<li>Malignt melanom*: ICD8\/9: 172; ICD10: C43<\/li>\n<li>Hj\u00e4rntum\u00f6rer: ICD8: 191, 225.0, 239.6; ICD9: 191, 225.0, 238.1; ICD10: C71, D33.0-D33.2, D43.0-D43.2<\/li>\n<li>Leukemi*: ICD8\/9: 204-207; ICD10: C91-C93, C94.1-C94.4, C94.7, C95<\/li>\n<li>Non-Hodgkins lymfom*: ICD8\/9: 200, 202; ICD10: C82-C86, C96<\/li>\n<li>Myelom*: ICD8\/9: 203; ICD10: C90<\/li>\n<li>\u00c4ggstockscancer (endast kvinnor): ICD8\/9: 183; ICD10: C56, C57.0-C57.4<\/li>\n<li>Livmoderkroppscancer (endast kvinnor): ICD8\/9: 182; ICD10: C54<\/li>\n<li>Livmoderhalscancer (endast kvinnor): ICD8\/9: 180; ICD10: C53<\/li>\n<li>Icke-melanom hudcancer*, exkluderas: ICD8\/9: 173; ICD10: C44<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6vrig cancer: Alla \u00f6vriga cancerformer.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Prognoser f\u00f6r d\u00f6dlighet redovisas per k\u00f6n i riket och f\u00f6r grupper definierade av \u00e5lder respektive sjukv\u00e5rdsregion.<\/p>\n<p>Referenser<\/p>\n<p>[1] M\u00f8ller B, Fekjaer H, Hakulinen T, Sigvaldason H, Storm HH, Talb\u00e4ck M, Haldorsen T. Prediction of cancer incidence in the Nordic countries: empirical comparison of different approaches. Stat Med. 2003 Sep 15;22(17):2751-66. doi: 10.1002\/sim.1481. PMID: 12939784.<\/p>\n<p>[2] Bray F, M\u00f8ller B. Predicting the future burden of cancer. Nat Rev Cancer. 2006 Jan;6(1):63-74. doi: 10.1038\/nrc1781. PMID: 16372017.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"T\u00e4ljare F\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat antal d\u00f6dsfall med aktuell cancerform som underliggande d\u00f6dsorsak. N\u00e4mnare \u00a0 Framskrivning av medelbefolkningen i riket (eller&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19390,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[113,112,34,31,33,32,30],"class_list":{"0":"post-137859","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-halsa","8":"tag-halsa","9":"tag-health","10":"tag-se","11":"tag-svenska","12":"tag-sverige","13":"tag-sweden","14":"tag-swedish"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@se\/115903801840775864","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=137859"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/137859\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=137859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=137859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=137859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}