{"id":213456,"date":"2026-04-09T10:58:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T10:58:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/213456\/"},"modified":"2026-04-09T10:58:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T10:58:15","slug":"sa-hogt-kan-oljepriset-bli-sen-spricker-ekonomin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/213456\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00e5 h\u00f6gt kan oljepriset bli \u2013 sen spricker ekonomin"},"content":{"rendered":"

Varningslampan som aldrig haft fel<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om vi ens beh\u00f6ver v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 att oljepriset stiger ytterligare. Mark Zandi<\/strong>, chefsekonom p\u00e5 Moody\u2019s Analytics, menar att USA:s ekonomi sannolikt redan befinner sig i en recession enligt Fortune<\/a>. Han pekar p\u00e5 indikatorn Vicious Cycle Index, VCI.<\/p>\n

VCI-m\u00e4taren \u00e4r en arbetskraftsjusterad version av den klassiska Sahm-regeln. Enligt Zandi har indikatorn lyckats pricka in varje l\u00e5gkonjunktur sedan andra v\u00e4rldskriget utan ett enda falskt alarm. Nu blinkar den r\u00f6tt.<\/p>\n

Medan officiella siffror f\u00f6r mars visade p\u00e5 178 000 nya jobb, menar kritiker att statistiken \u00e4r en h\u00e4gring. Diane Swonk<\/strong>, chefsekonom p\u00e5 KPMG, konstaterar att arbetsl\u00f6sheten sjunker av fel anledningar, fr\u00e4mst f\u00f6r att modf\u00e4llda arbetstagare l\u00e4mnar arbetskraften helt.<\/p>\n

Global l\u00e5gkonjunktur genom oljepriset<\/p>\n

Bernard Baumohl<\/strong>, chefsekonom p\u00e5 Economic Outlook Group, menar i en intervju med Wall Street Journal<\/a> att den amerikanska ekonomin hittills visat en imponerande motst\u00e5ndskraft. Men han varnar f\u00f6r att man inte kan ta styrkan f\u00f6r given om prischocken blir l\u00e5ngvarig. <\/p>\n

Priset m\u00e5ste enligt honom bli h\u00f6gt och forts\u00e4tta vara h\u00f6gt i minst tre veckor f\u00f6r att det ska utl\u00f6sa en regelr\u00e4tt l\u00e5gkonjunktur.<\/p>\n

\"\"Oljepriset rusade kraftigt efter krigsutbrottet och forts\u00e4tter att kl\u00e4ttra. (K\u00e4lla: Reuters)<\/p>\n

En enk\u00e4t genomf\u00f6rd av National Association for Business Economics visar att oron sprider sig snabbt bland experterna. Hela 43 procent av de svarande bed\u00f6mer nu att risken f\u00f6r en recession inom det n\u00e4rmaste \u00e5ret ligger mellan 35 och 50 procent.<\/p>\n

Skulle eskaleringen driva upp priset mot 150 dollar per fat v\u00e4ntar ett \u00e4nnu m\u00f6rkare scenario. Ekonomer varnar enligt Oilprice f\u00f6r att vi d\u00e5 kan f\u00e5 se en global recession d\u00e4r inflationen rusar mot 7,7 procent, samtidigt som bristsituationer p\u00e5 diesel och flygbr\u00e4nsle lamsl\u00e5r v\u00e4rldshandeln.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4s mer fr\u00e5n Realtid – v\u00e5rt nyhetsbrev \u00e4r kostnadsfritt:Prenumerera<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Varningslampan som aldrig haft fel Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om vi ens beh\u00f6ver v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 att oljepriset stiger ytterligare. Mark…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":213457,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[65],"tags":[72,70,71,6021,34,31,33,32,30],"class_list":{"0":"post-213456","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomi","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-ekonomi","11":"tag-oljepriset","12":"tag-se","13":"tag-svenska","14":"tag-sverige","15":"tag-sweden","16":"tag-swedish"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@se\/116374399193053616","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213456"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213456\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/213457"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}