{"id":356294,"date":"2026-08-28T17:26:29","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T17:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/356294\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T17:26:29","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T17:26:29","slug":"partierna-som-opinionsmatningar-brukar-missa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/356294\/","title":{"rendered":"Partierna som opinionsm\u00e4tningar brukar missa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul class=\"_gallery_1f6gv_33\" tabindex=\"0\">\n<li class=\"_item_1f6gv_64\" data-index=\"0\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"_image_1rh6a_27 _introGallery_1rh6a_47\" data-fullscreen- width=\"6000\" height=\"4204\" itemprop=\"image\" loading=\"eager\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/9972f973-559c-3d72-9f72-3ba77cc7d0bf.jpeg\"  style=\"object-position:50% 50%;aspect-ratio:var(--gallery-aspect-ratio, 16 \/ 9)\"\/>Sverigedemokraterna \u00e4r det parti som opinionsf\u00f6retagen har sv\u00e5rast att m\u00e4ta. Foto: Johan Nilsson\/TT<\/li>\n<li class=\"_item_1f6gv_64\" data-index=\"1\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"_image_1rh6a_27 _introGallery_1rh6a_47\" data-fullscreen- width=\"6000\" height=\"4000\" itemprop=\"image\" loading=\"lazy\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/ef1c87f4-2740-3a95-8492-b7cdd13ecc49.jpeg\"  style=\"object-position:50% 50%;aspect-ratio:var(--gallery-aspect-ratio, 16 \/ 9)\"\/>Milj\u00f6partiet har historiskt varit ett \u00f6verskattat parti inf\u00f6r riksdagsvalen. Foto: Nicklas Thegerstr\u00f6m\/TT<\/li>\n<li class=\"_item_1f6gv_64\" data-index=\"2\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" class=\"_image_1rh6a_27 _introGallery_1rh6a_47\" data-fullscreen- width=\"2720\" height=\"1960\" itemprop=\"image\" loading=\"lazy\"  src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/240c4ccb-f6b5-342c-b259-abb5e4061cf0.jpeg\"  style=\"object-position:50% 50%;aspect-ratio:var(--gallery-aspect-ratio, 16 \/ 9)\"\/>Liberalerna har i opinionsm\u00e4tning efter opinionsm\u00e4tning hamnat under fyraprocentssp\u00e4rren. Arkivbild. Foto: Bj\u00f6rn Larsson Rosvall\/TT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Sverigedemokraterna \u00e4r det parti som opinionsf\u00f6retagen har sv\u00e5rast att m\u00e4ta. Foto: Johan Nilsson\/TT<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _lead_16k26_2 _lead_3ue4t_18 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded _lead_o6m9k_5 _leadTheme_cypwp_1 body-large bold\">Inf\u00f6r valet duggar opinionsunders\u00f6kningarna t\u00e4tt, men hur tr\u00e4ffs\u00e4kra \u00e4r de? Och vad h\u00e4nder om de visar sig vara missvisande?<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _lead_16k26_2 _lead_3ue4t_18 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded _lead_o6m9k_5 _leadTheme_cypwp_1 body-large bold\">\u2013 Det kan ha en psykologisk effekt, s\u00e4ger statsvetaren Annika Fred\u00e9n.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">I presidentvalet i USA 2016 s\u00e5g Hillary Clinton ut att g\u00e5 mot en s\u00e4ker valseger mot Donald Trump. Men Trump skr\u00e4llde och l\u00e4mnade analytiker f\u00f6rbryllade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">\u2013 J\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med Storbritannien och USA, d\u00e4r man sl\u00e5r ihop valresultat fr\u00e5n olika kretsar p\u00e5 ett annat s\u00e4tt, s\u00e5 \u00e4r de svenska m\u00e4tningarna mer tillf\u00f6rlitliga, s\u00e4ger Annika Fred\u00e9n, docent vid Lunds universitet.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">Men det betyder inte att de \u00e4r perfekta eller att vissa v\u00e4ljargrupper inte blivit \u00f6ver- eller underrepresenterade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">\u2013 Om man g\u00e5r tillbaka i tiden fick Milj\u00f6partiet alltid h\u00f6gre siffror i opinionsunders\u00f6kningar \u00e4n vad de fick i valet, s\u00e4ger Dan Hedlin, professor i statistik vid Stockholms universitet.<\/p>\n<p> Motsatt effekt <\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">F\u00f6rklaringen ligger i Milj\u00f6partiets tidigare f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att vara l\u00e4ttomtyckt av m\u00e5nga, tror han.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">\u2013 Institut st\u00e4ller inte bara fr\u00e5gan: vilket parti skulle du r\u00f6sta p\u00e5 om det vore val i dag? F\u00f6r de som inte vet kommer n\u00e4sta fr\u00e5ga: vilket parti ligger n\u00e4rmast till hands? S\u00e4ger man d\u00e5 Milj\u00f6partiet s\u00e5 r\u00e4knas man som milj\u00f6partist.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">Motsatt effekt har pr\u00e4glat Sverigedemokraterna.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">\u2013 Deras sympatis\u00f6rer deltar mindre g\u00e4rna i unders\u00f6kningar j\u00e4mf\u00f6rt med andra. Det g\u00f6r att de blir underskattade. Nu har institut metoder f\u00f6r att motverka det, men det r\u00e4cker inte alltid.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">Normalt brukar st\u00f6rre opinionsunders\u00f6kningar i Sverige ha en felmarginal p\u00e5 cirka tv\u00e5 procent, enligt Hedlin.<\/p>\n<p> Psykologisk effekt <\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">Enskilda opinionsunders\u00f6kningar kan dock visa en st\u00f6rre felmarginal.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">En opinionsunders\u00f6kning fr\u00e5n i v\u00e5ras visade att Liberalerna klarade fyraprocentssp\u00e4rren efter beskedet om att sitta i regering tillsammans med Sverigedemokraterna. Senare fick Demoskops m\u00e4tmetoder kritik f\u00f6r att de anv\u00e4nt en sj\u00e4lvrekryterande panel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">Ingen vill att ens r\u00f6st ska bli bortkastad. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r kan enstaka m\u00e4tningar \u00f6ver fyra procent ha en psykologisk effekt och p\u00e5verka v\u00e4ljares ben\u00e4genhet att st\u00f6dr\u00f6sta.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">\u2013 S\u00e4rskilt om de kommer i ett kritiskt l\u00e4ge n\u00e4r m\u00e5nga st\u00e5r och v\u00e4ger.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">Men det beror p\u00e5 vilket parti det handlar om.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_textTheme_4io5p_1 _paragraph_16k26_4 _paragraph_3ue4t_27 layout-component layout-normal layout-padded body-medium\">\u2013 Om det \u00e4r ett parti som har en etablerad st\u00e4llning, och som ing\u00e5r i en koalition, har jag kunnat se att \u00e4ven l\u00e5ga opinionssiffror som 2,5 procent g\u00f6r att v\u00e4ljare st\u00f6dr\u00f6star, s\u00e4ger hon, och n\u00e4mner Kristdemokraterna som ett exempel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sverigedemokraterna \u00e4r det parti som opinionsf\u00f6retagen har sv\u00e5rast att m\u00e4ta. Foto: Johan Nilsson\/TT Milj\u00f6partiet har historiskt varit ett&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":356295,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5],"tags":[22,23,26,27,17,21,1107,24,25,639,28,29,1234,15,16,18,34,31,33,617,32,30,19,20],"class_list":["post-356294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-rubriker","tag-breaking-news","tag-breakingnews","tag-featured-news","tag-featurednews","tag-headlines","tag-huvudnyheter","tag-kristdemokraterna","tag-latest-news","tag-latestnews","tag-liberalerna","tag-main-news","tag-mainnews","tag-miljopartiet","tag-news","tag-nyheter","tag-rubriker","tag-se","tag-svenska","tag-sverige","tag-sverigedemokraterna","tag-sweden","tag-swedish","tag-top-stories","tag-topstories"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@se\/117174310954214790","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/356294","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=356294"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/356294\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/356295"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=356294"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=356294"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/se\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=356294"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}