{"id":105501,"date":"2026-06-23T10:06:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T10:06:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/105501\/"},"modified":"2026-06-23T10:06:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T10:06:12","slug":"blizime-sa-k-nule-nbs-zverejnila-nelichotivu-prognozu-rastu-ekonomiky-pripravte-sa-na-drahotu-ludia-ekonomika","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/105501\/","title":{"rendered":"Bl\u00ed\u017eime sa k nule. NBS zverejnila nelichotiv\u00fa progn\u00f3zu rastu ekonomiky: Pripravte sa na drahotu – \u013dudia – Ekonomika"},"content":{"rendered":"

Slovensk\u00e1 ekonomika zost\u00e1va uv\u00e4znen\u00e1 v obdob\u00ed slab\u00e9ho rastu a zv\u00fd\u0161enej neistoty. Hoci sa jej zatia\u013e dar\u00ed vyh\u00fdba\u0165 recesii, pod\u013ea najnov\u0161ej letnej progn\u00f3zy N\u00e1rodnej banky Slovenska (NBS), o ktorej na tla\u010dovej konferencii informoval guvern\u00e9r Peter Ka\u017eim\u00edr a hlavn\u00fd ekon\u00f3m Michal Horv\u00e1th, bude hospod\u00e1rske o\u017eivenie pomal\u0161ie a komplikovanej\u0161ie, ne\u017e sa e\u0161te pred nieko\u013ek\u00fdmi mesiacmi o\u010dak\u00e1valo. Centr\u00e1lna banka s\u00edce ponechala odhad rastu ekonomiky na tento rok na \u00farovni 0,5 percenta, z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee rast\u00face geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u00e4tie, vysok\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed a slab\u0161\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00fd dopyt bud\u00fa slovensk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1rstvo brzdi\u0165 aj v nasleduj\u00facich rokoch.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPravda,
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTASR,
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSITA<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t23.06.2026 10:18 , aktualizovan\u00e9:\u00a010:56\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\"ka\u017eim\u00edr\"\/
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFoto: TASR, Dano Veselsk\u00fd<\/p>\n

Guvern\u00e9r N\u00e1rodnej banky Slovenska Peter Ka\u017eim\u00edr<\/p>\n

K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fdm faktorom zost\u00e1va konflikt na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode, ktor\u00e9ho d\u00f4sledky sa pod\u013ea NBS neobmedzuj\u00fa len na energetick\u00e9 trhy. Vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny ropy, plynu a \u010fal\u0161\u00edch komod\u00edt sa postupne premietaj\u00fa do n\u00e1kladov firiem, cien slu\u017eieb aj spotrebite\u013esk\u00fdch cien. Napriek tomu sa slovensk\u00e1 ekonomika na za\u010diatku roka uk\u00e1zala ako odolnej\u0161ia, ne\u017e sa o\u010dak\u00e1valo. Dom\u00e1cnosti pokra\u010dovali v\u00a0spotrebe aj napriek tomu, \u017ee ich finan\u010dn\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia sa pod vplyvom konsolida\u010dn\u00fdch opatren\u00ed zhor\u0161ovala.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1ve spotreba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed patrila medzi pozit\u00edvne prekvapenia prv\u00fdch mesiacov roka. \u013dudia s\u00edce \u010delili ni\u017e\u0161ej k\u00fapyschopnosti a vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1kladom, no svoje v\u00fddavky v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie neobmedzili. NBS v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee tento v\u00fdvoj bol do ve\u013ekej miery financovan\u00fd na \u00fakor \u00faspor. Dom\u00e1cnosti si odkladali menej pe\u0148az\u00ed a viac m\u00ed\u0148ali najm\u00e4 na be\u017en\u00fa spotrebu vr\u00e1tane potrav\u00edn.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\tSlovensk\u00ed farm\u00e1ri za\u010dali so \u017eatvou sk\u00f4r, sucho zni\u017euje v\u00fdnosy \t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t Video \t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tFarm\u00e1ri na juhu Slovenska za\u010dali pre hor\u00face a such\u00e9 po\u010dasie so zberom ja\u010dme\u0148a a hrachu mimoriadne skoro. \t\t\t\t\/\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tZdroj: Reuters \t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Tak\u00fdto model v\u0161ak pod\u013ea centr\u00e1lnej banky nie je dlhodobo udr\u017eate\u013en\u00fd. V\u00a0\u010fal\u0161\u00edch \u0161tvr\u0165rokoch by sa mali vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny energi\u00ed, pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00faca neistota a dopady konsolid\u00e1cie v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie prejavi\u0165 na spr\u00e1van\u00ed spotrebite\u013eov aj firiem. S\u00fakromn\u00e1 spotreba by preto mala v\u00a0tomto roku v\u00a0podstate stagnova\u0165 a v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie o\u017eivenie sa o\u010dak\u00e1va a\u017e v\u00a0nasleduj\u00facich rokoch.<\/p>\n

Jedna z\u00a0najpomal\u0161\u00edch<\/p>\n

N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka z\u00e1rove\u0148 upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee Slovensko zost\u00e1va jednou z\u00a0najpomal\u0161ie rast\u00facich ekonom\u00edk regi\u00f3nu. Hlavn\u00fdm probl\u00e9mom nie je len slab\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkon zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch partnerov, ale aj utlmen\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00e1 aktivita. Firmy odkladaj\u00fa nov\u00e9 projekty pre vysok\u00fa mieru neistoty, drah\u0161ie financovanie a obavy zo slab\u0161ieho dopytu. Pokles invest\u00edci\u00ed je vidite\u013en\u00fd naprie\u010d v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inou odvetv\u00ed a t\u00fdka sa nielen s\u00fakromn\u00e9ho sektora, ale aj trhu s\u00a0nehnute\u013enos\u0165ami. Po\u010det nov\u00fdch bytov a domov sa pohybuje na viacro\u010dn\u00fdch minim\u00e1ch, \u010do z\u00e1rove\u0148 zvy\u0161uje tlak na ceny existuj\u00facich nehnute\u013enost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t\t\t\"Saab \t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u010c\u00edtajte viac \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u010co sa deje s niekdaj\u0161ou p\u00fdchou Slovenska? \u013dudia odch\u00e1dzaj\u00fa od p\u00e1sov, v\u0161etky sektory s\u00fa pod tlakom \t\t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n

Ur\u010ditou protiv\u00e1hou zost\u00e1vaj\u00fa verejn\u00e9 invest\u00edcie financovan\u00e9 z\u00a0eur\u00f3pskych zdrojov. Tento rok ich podporuje najm\u00e4 do\u010derp\u00e1vanie pl\u00e1nu obnovy, invest\u00edcie do nemocn\u00edc, \u017eelezni\u010dnej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary \u010di rozvoj samospr\u00e1v. NBS v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee tento impulz bude postupne slabn\u00fa\u0165 a po roku 2026\u00a0ho bud\u00fa nahr\u00e1dza\u0165 najm\u00e4 prostriedky z\u00a0Programu Slovensko.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed rast a\u017e bud\u00faci rok<\/p>\n

V\u00fdraznej\u0161ie zlep\u0161enie ekonomick\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu o\u010dak\u00e1va centr\u00e1lna banka a\u017e v\u00a0rokoch 2027\u00a0a 2028.\u00a0Rast hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1ceho produktu by sa mal postupne zr\u00fdchli\u0165 na 1,9\u00a0a n\u00e1sledne 2,6\u00a0percenta. Hlavn\u00fdm motorom by mal by\u0165 zahrani\u010dn\u00fd dopyt a silnej\u0161ia spotreba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. V\u00fdznamn\u00fa \u00falohu m\u00f4\u017ee zohra\u0165 aj roz\u0161\u00edrenie v\u00fdrobn\u00fdch kapac\u00edt v\u00a0automobilovom priemysle po spusten\u00ed nov\u00fdch produk\u010dn\u00fdch liniek.<\/p>\n

Optimistickej\u0161\u00ed scen\u00e1r v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed na viacer\u00fdch podmienkach. Predov\u0161etk\u00fdm na stabiliz\u00e1cii geopolitickej situ\u00e1cie, absencii \u010fal\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdrazn\u00fdch \u0161okov a na tom, \u017ee vl\u00e1da neprist\u00fapi k\u00a0dodato\u010dn\u00fdm konsolida\u010dn\u00fdm opatreniam vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161om rozsahu, ne\u017e sa dnes predpoklad\u00e1. Pr\u00e1ve \u010fal\u0161ia konsolid\u00e1cia verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed patr\u00ed medzi v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 neistoty v\u00fdh\u013eadu.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\tFico: Vyslovenie d\u00f4very vl\u00e1de znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by nemali by\u0165 pred\u010dasn\u00e9 vo\u013eby \t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t Video \t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tZdroj: FB Roberta Fica \t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea progn\u00f3zy dosiahne deficit verejn\u00fdch financi\u00ed v\u00a0tomto roku 4,5\u00a0percenta hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1ceho produktu a bez \u010fal\u0161\u00edch opatren\u00ed sa v\u00a0nasleduj\u00facich rokoch v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie nezlep\u0161\u00ed. Verejn\u00fd dlh by mal vzr\u00e1s\u0165 zo s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fdch pribli\u017ene 62,5\u00a0percenta HDP a\u017e k\u00a0hranici 65\u00a0percent HDP v\u00a0roku 2028.\u00a0Centr\u00e1lna banka pritom upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee v\u00a0progn\u00f3ze zatia\u013e nie s\u00fa zapo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e9 bud\u00face konsolida\u010dn\u00e9 bal\u00edky, preto\u017ee ich konkr\u00e9tna podoba nie je zn\u00e1ma. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee re\u00e1lny rast \u017eivotnej \u00farovne m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v\u00a0bud\u00facnosti e\u0161te slab\u0161\u00ed. Bud\u00face \u00fasporn\u00e9 opatrenia toti\u017e pravdepodobne zn\u00ed\u017eia disponibiln\u00e9 pr\u00edjmy dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed alebo zv\u00fd\u0161ia n\u00e1klady podnikate\u013esk\u00e9ho sektora.<\/p>\n

Starnutie a odliv \u013eud\u00ed<\/p>\n

V\u00fdznamnou t\u00e9mou zost\u00e1va aj trh pr\u00e1ce. NBS predpoklad\u00e1, \u017ee zamestnanos\u0165 bude tento aj bud\u00faci rok mierne klesa\u0165. Slab\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd rast toti\u017e nevytv\u00e1ra dostatok nov\u00fdch pracovn\u00fdch miest. Situ\u00e1ciu navy\u0161e komplikuje starnutie popul\u00e1cie a rast\u00faci po\u010det \u013eud\u00ed odch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich mimo trhu\u00a0pr\u00e1ce.<\/p>\n

Prv\u00fdm vidite\u013en\u00fdm d\u00f4sledkom nov\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho prostredia je pokles po\u010dtu \u017eivnostn\u00edkov. Za posledn\u00fdch p\u00e4\u0165 \u0161tvr\u0165rokov ich pod\u013ea \u00fadajov n\u00e1rodn\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dtov ubudlo viac ako 16-tis\u00edc. Anal\u00fdza NBS ukazuje, \u017ee naj\u010dastej\u0161ie i\u0161lo o\u00a0n\u00edzkopr\u00edjmov\u00fdch podnikate\u013eov, ktor\u00fdch zasiahlo vy\u0161\u0161ie da\u0148ov\u00e9 a odvodov\u00e9 za\u0165a\u017eenie. \u010cas\u0165 z\u00a0nich pre\u0161la do zamestnaneck\u00e9ho pomeru, \u010fal\u0161\u00ed ukon\u010dili ekonomick\u00fa aktivitu alebo sa presunuli do in\u00fdch foriem podnikania.<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t\t\t\"firma, \t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u010c\u00edtajte viac \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u010crt\u00e1 sa ve\u013ek\u00fd obrat? \u010coraz menej Slov\u00e1kov odch\u00e1dza do zahrani\u010dia, domov sa vracaj\u00fa po tis\u00edckach \t\t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n

Napriek tomu dopyt po pracovnej sile nekles\u00e1 dramaticky. Firm\u00e1m pom\u00e1ha pr\u00edlev zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch pracovn\u00edkov, ktor\u00ed \u010diasto\u010dne kompenzuj\u00fa odchod dom\u00e1cich zamestnancov do d\u00f4chodku alebo mimo trhu pr\u00e1ce. V\u00a0bud\u00facnosti bude pod\u013ea NBS pr\u00e1ve zahrani\u010dn\u00e1 pracovn\u00e1 sila \u010doraz d\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161\u00edm zdrojom pracovn\u00fdch kapac\u00edt. Pozit\u00edvnou spr\u00e1vou pre zamestnancov zost\u00e1va rast miezd. Nomin\u00e1lne mzdy by mali tento rok vzr\u00e1s\u0165 o\u00a0viac ako \u0161tyri percent\u00e1 a aj po zoh\u013eadnen\u00ed infl\u00e1cie by si \u013eudia mali mierne polep\u0161i\u0165. Najv\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed rast platov pokra\u010duje vo verejnom sektore, najm\u00e4 v\u00a0\u0161kolstve a zdravotn\u00edctve.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1ve infl\u00e1cia v\u0161ak zost\u00e1va jedn\u00fdm z\u00a0najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edch probl\u00e9mov ekonomiky. N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka o\u010dak\u00e1va, \u017ee tento rok dosiahne v\u00a0priemere \u0161tyri percent\u00e1. Hoci rast cien potrav\u00edn sa spoma\u013euje, vy\u0161\u0161ie ceny energi\u00ed a pohonn\u00fdch l\u00e1tok tento efekt kompenzuj\u00fa. E\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie obavy vyvol\u00e1va v\u00fdh\u013ead na \u010fal\u0161ie roky. Odborn\u00edci centr\u00e1lnej banky zv\u00fd\u0161ili odhad infl\u00e1cie na roky 2027\u00a0aj 2028.\u00a0D\u00f4vodom s\u00fa predov\u0161etk\u00fdm vy\u0161\u0161ie o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 ceny energetick\u00fdch komod\u00edt a postupn\u00e9 pren\u00e1\u0161anie rast\u00facich n\u00e1kladov do cien tovarov a slu\u017eieb. V\u00a0roku 2028\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee infl\u00e1ciu v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie ovplyvni\u0165 aj predpokladan\u00e9 obmedzenie \u0161t\u00e1tnej pomoci s\u00a0cenami energi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\tFico v novom videu: Ostr\u00e1 kritika Hlasu, obhajoba ekonomiky a o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 stretnutie s Magyarom. Vytiahne Bene\u0161ove dekr\u00e9ty? \t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t Video \t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tPremi\u00e9r Robert Fico sa vo svojom najnov\u0161om videu na soci\u00e1lnej sieti vyjadril k viacer\u00fdm vn\u00fatro- aj zahrani\u010dnopolitick\u00fdm t\u00e9mam, pri\u010dom ne\u0161etril kritikou koali\u010dn\u00e9ho partnera ani opoz\u00edcie. \t\t\t\t\/\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tZdroj: Facebook \t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm rizikom zost\u00e1va \u010fal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj geopolitickej situ\u00e1cie. NBS pripravila viacero alternat\u00edvnych scen\u00e1rov, pri\u010dom dva z\u00a0nich po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00fa s\u00a0hor\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvojom ne\u017e z\u00e1kladn\u00e1 progn\u00f3za. V\u00a0takom pr\u00edpade by slovensk\u00e1 ekonomika r\u00e1stla pomal\u0161ie a infl\u00e1cia by bola v\u00fdrazne vy\u0161\u0161ia. V\u00a0extr\u00e9mnom scen\u00e1ri by sa mohla v\u00a0roku 2028\u00a0pribl\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 a\u017e k\u00a0siedmim percent\u00e1m. Naopak, r\u00fdchle ukon\u010denie konfliktu na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode by prinieslo ni\u017e\u0161ie ceny energi\u00ed, silnej\u0161\u00ed hospod\u00e1rsky rast a priaznivej\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj \u017eivotnej \u00farovne. N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee neistota zost\u00e1va mimoriadne vysok\u00e1 a rizik\u00e1 s\u00fa na\u010falej vych\u00fdlen\u00e9 smerom k\u00a0pomal\u0161iemu rastu a vy\u0161\u0161ej infl\u00e1cii.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Slovensk\u00e1 ekonomika zost\u00e1va uv\u00e4znen\u00e1 v obdob\u00ed slab\u00e9ho rastu a zv\u00fd\u0161enej neistoty. Hoci sa jej zatia\u013e dar\u00ed vyh\u00fdba\u0165 recesii,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4273,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[6],"tags":[35892,19070,8714,35893,43,40,44,39,42,1441,45,41,32065],"class_list":["post-105501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-slovensko","tag-blizime","tag-hdp","tag-narodna-banka-slovenska","tag-nule","tag-sk","tag-slovak","tag-slovak-republic","tag-slovakia","tag-slovencina","tag-slovenska-ekonomika","tag-slovenska-republika","tag-slovensko","tag-zverejnila"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116798867866077545","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105501\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4273"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}