{"id":105652,"date":"2026-06-23T12:41:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T12:41:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/105652\/"},"modified":"2026-06-23T12:41:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T12:41:08","slug":"riziko-statneho-bankrotu-stupa-na-vysoky-dlh-sme-pristari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/105652\/","title":{"rendered":"Riziko \u0161t\u00e1tneho bankrotu st\u00fapa, na vysok\u00fd dlh sme pristar\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>BRATISLAVA &#8211; Slovensk\u00e1 republika \u010del\u00ed pod\u013ea najnov\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch d\u00e1t v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu n\u00e1rastu dlhodobej finan\u010dnej zranite\u013enosti. Najnov\u0161ia v\u00fdskumn\u00e1 \u0161t\u00fadia Rady pre rozpo\u010dtov\u00fa zodpovednos\u0165 (RRZ) upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee hoci krajina v t\u00fdchto d\u0148och ne\u010del\u00ed bezprostrednej hrozbe \u0161t\u00e1tneho bankrotu, kombin\u00e1cia extr\u00e9mneho starnutia popul\u00e1cie a neust\u00e1leho zadl\u017eovania sa st\u00e1va neudr\u017eate\u013enou.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0Z <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rrz.sk\/pristari-na-vysoky-dlh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">anal\u00fdzy<\/a> nez\u00e1visl\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho org\u00e1nu vypl\u00fdva, \u017ee Slovensko je u\u017e vzh\u013eadom na demografick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj \u201epristar\u00e9 na vysok\u00fd dlh\u201c. Anal\u00fdza, ktor\u00fa vypracoval analytik RRZ Marek Rak\u00fas, prin\u00e1\u0161a exaktn\u00e9 prepo\u010dty bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja. K\u00fdm v roku 2010 bolo takzvan\u00e9 riziko neodvratn\u00e9ho defaultu \u2013 teda pravdepodobnos\u0165, \u017ee sa \u0161t\u00e1t v bud\u00facnosti nebude schopn\u00fd vyhn\u00fa\u0165 bankrotu ani pri maxim\u00e1lnom \u00fasil\u00ed \u2013 na \u00farovni zanedbate\u013en\u00fdch 0,3 %, v s\u00fa\u010dasnosti u\u017e t\u00e1to hodnota pod\u013ea zisten\u00ed rady dosahuje 10,9 %.<\/p>\n<p>Slovensko t\u00fdm prekro\u010dilo p\u00e4\u0165percentn\u00fa hranicu, ktor\u00fa ekon\u00f3movia definuj\u00fa ako bezpe\u010dn\u00fa z\u00f3nu. Ak sa pr\u00edstup k verejn\u00fdm financi\u00e1m nezmen\u00ed a legislat\u00edvne nastavenia polit\u00edk zostan\u00fa v s\u00fa\u010dasnom stave, progn\u00f3za RRZ do bud\u00facnosti je kritick\u00e1. V horizonte roku 2040 riziko neodvratn\u00e9ho bankrotu pod\u013ea modelu presiahne 50 %. Hlavn\u00fdm sp\u00fa\u0161\u0165a\u010dom m\u00e1 by\u0165 n\u00e1rast hrub\u00e9ho dlhu, ktor\u00fd by v z\u00e1kladnom scen\u00e1ri dosiahol 108,6 % HDP.<\/p>\n<p>\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.topky.sk\/gl\/9582525\/6524193\/Tikajuca-bomba-slovenskych-financii--Na-vysoky-dlh-sme-pristari--Riziko-statneho-bankrotu-podla-RRZ-stupa\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><br \/>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Tikaj\u00faca bomba slovensk\u00fdch financi\u00ed:\" aria-describedby=\"img-res-6524193\" class=\"\" height=\"856\" id=\"6524193\" loading=\"lazy\" onerror=\"imgArticleLoadErr(this)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Tikajuca-bomba-slovenskych-financii-.jpg\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.869\" title=\"Tikaj\u00faca bomba slovensk\u00fdch financi\u00ed:\" width=\"1600\"\/>\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\t\t\tZobrazi\u0165 gal\u00e9riu (4)\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\t\u00a0(Zdroj: rrz.sk)<\/p>\n<p>Sme pristar\u00ed na vysok\u00fd dlh<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1sadn\u00fdm probl\u00e9mom Slovenska nie je pod\u013ea \u0161t\u00fadie len samotn\u00e1 v\u00fd\u0161ka po\u017ei\u010dan\u00fdch pe\u0148az\u00ed, ale demografick\u00e1 transform\u00e1cia, ktorej krajina \u010del\u00ed. Starnutie popul\u00e1cie predstavuje dlhodob\u00fd a predv\u00eddate\u013en\u00fd trend. Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed podiel star\u0161\u00edch \u013eud\u00ed v spolo\u010dnosti automaticky vyvol\u00e1va enormn\u00fd tlak na \u0161t\u00e1tne v\u00fddavky v podobe d\u00f4chodkov \u010di zdravotnej starostlivosti.<\/p>\n<p>\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.topky.sk\/gl\/9582525\/6524195\/Tikajuca-bomba-slovenskych-financii--Na-vysoky-dlh-sme-pristari--Riziko-statneho-bankrotu-podla-RRZ-stupa\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><br \/>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Tikaj\u00faca bomba slovensk\u00fdch financi\u00ed:\" aria-describedby=\"img-res-6524195\" class=\"\" height=\"901\" id=\"6524195\" loading=\"lazy\" onerror=\"imgArticleLoadErr(this)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1782218467_929_Tikajuca-bomba-slovenskych-financii-.jpg\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.776\" title=\"Tikaj\u00faca bomba slovensk\u00fdch financi\u00ed:\" width=\"1600\"\/>\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\t\t\tZobrazi\u0165 gal\u00e9riu (4)\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\t\u00a0(Zdroj: rrz.sk)<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1rove\u0148 s t\u00fdm kles\u00e1 podiel \u013eud\u00ed v produkt\u00edvnom veku, \u010do pod\u013ea RRZ zni\u017euje schopnos\u0165 \u0161t\u00e1tu generova\u0165 v bud\u00facnosti prim\u00e1rne prebytky rozpo\u010dtu. Z anal\u00fdzy vypl\u00fdva, \u017ee schopnos\u0165 \u0161t\u00e1tu spl\u00e1ca\u0165 svoje z\u00e1v\u00e4zky kles\u00e1 \u00famerne s t\u00fdm, ako ekonomika str\u00e1ca produkt\u00edvnu silu. Dlh, ktor\u00fd by bol pre krajinu s priaznivej\u0161ou demografickou \u0161trukt\u00farou relat\u00edvne bezpe\u010dn\u00fd, sa v starn\u00facej spolo\u010dnosti st\u00e1va rizikovej\u0161\u00edm. Pod\u013ea prepo\u010dtov rady sa demografick\u00fd tlak v modeli rizika prejavuje pribli\u017ene o 16 rokov sk\u00f4r, ne\u017e samotn\u00e9 starnutie dosiahne svoje absol\u00fatne maximum.<\/p>\n<p>\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.topky.sk\/gl\/9582525\/6524197\/Tikajuca-bomba-slovenskych-financii--Na-vysoky-dlh-sme-pristari--Riziko-statneho-bankrotu-podla-RRZ-stupa\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><br \/>\n\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Tikaj\u00faca bomba slovensk\u00fdch financi\u00ed:\" aria-describedby=\"img-res-6524197\" class=\"\" height=\"829\" id=\"6524197\" loading=\"lazy\" onerror=\"imgArticleLoadErr(this)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/1782218468_419_Tikajuca-bomba-slovenskych-financii-.jpg\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.929\" title=\"Tikaj\u00faca bomba slovensk\u00fdch financi\u00ed:\" width=\"1600\"\/>\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\n\t\t\t\tZobrazi\u0165 gal\u00e9riu (4)\t\t\t<\/p>\n<p>\t<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\t\u00a0(Zdroj: rrz.sk)<\/p>\n<p>Spolieha\u0165 sa len na ekonomick\u00fd rast u\u017e pod\u013ea RRZ nesta\u010d\u00ed<\/p>\n<p>Rada pre rozpo\u010dtov\u00fa zodpovednos\u0165 v z\u00e1vere svojej spr\u00e1vy upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 nastavenie kormidla slovenskej ekonomiky nie je bezpe\u010dn\u00e9. Pas\u00edvne o\u010dak\u00e1vanie, \u017ee sa krajina z dlhov dostane v\u010faka priazniv\u00e9mu hospod\u00e1rskemu cyklu a ekonomick\u00e9mu rastu, situ\u00e1ciu pod\u013ea analytikov nevyrie\u0161i.<\/p>\n<p>Ak chce \u0161t\u00e1t pred\u00eds\u0165 scen\u00e1ru, v ktorom u\u017e finan\u010dn\u00e9mu kolapsu nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 zabr\u00e1ni\u0165, mus\u00ed pod\u013ea odpor\u00fa\u010dan\u00ed RRZ stabilizova\u0165 rast verejn\u00e9ho dlhu a pr\u00edsne zos\u00faladi\u0165 bud\u00face v\u00fddavky s re\u00e1lnymi mo\u017enos\u0165ami ekonomiky. V s\u00fa\u010dasnosti riziko bankrotu mierne tlmia len dostato\u010dn\u00e9 likvidn\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00e9 akt\u00edva \u0161t\u00e1tu a produktivita, no ich vplyv sa s narastaj\u00facim dlhom postupne oslabuje.<\/p>\n<p>\u010co v\u0161etko n\u00e1m hroz\u00ed pri \u0161t\u00e1tnom bankrote?<\/p>\n<p>Pod pojmom default alebo \u0161t\u00e1tny bankrot si netreba predstavi\u0165 len okam\u017eit\u00e9 zavretie \u00faradov. Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 rada pripom\u00edna \u0161tyri z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 formy, ako tak\u00fdto stav v praxi vyzer\u00e1:<\/p>\n<p>&#13;<br \/>\n\tOdklad spl\u00e1tok a pred\u013a\u017eenie splatnosti: Zn\u00ed\u017ei to okam\u017eit\u00fd tlak na vl\u00e1dnu pokladnicu, no pre trhy je to jasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l finan\u010dnej tiesne, \u010do okam\u017eite zraz\u00ed rating krajiny.&#13;<br \/>\n\tZn\u00ed\u017eenie hodnoty dlhopisov: Veritelia dostan\u00fa sp\u00e4\u0165 cenn\u00e9 papiere s ni\u017e\u0161ou \u010distou s\u00fa\u010dasnou hodnotou.&#13;<br \/>\n\tNomin\u00e1lny odpis istiny: Najtvrd\u0161ia forma bankrotu, ak\u00fa za\u017eilo napr\u00edklad Gr\u00e9cko v roku 2012, kedy s\u00fakromn\u00ed investori museli odp\u00edsa\u0165 viac ako polovicu hodnoty svojich poh\u013ead\u00e1vok.&#13;<br \/>\n\tVstup do z\u00e1chrann\u00e9ho mechanizmu (euroval, MMF): Krajina s\u00edce form\u00e1lne dlhy spl\u00e1ca, no \u00faplne str\u00e1ca pr\u00edstup na finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy a kontrolu nad vlastnou politikou. Riadenie \u0161t\u00e1tu a drastick\u00e9 \u0161krty v rozpo\u010dte potom diktuj\u00fa extern\u00ed veritelia, \u010do v rokoch 2010 a\u017e 2013 za\u017eili \u00cdrsko, Portugalsko \u010di Cyprus.&#13;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"BRATISLAVA &#8211; Slovensk\u00e1 republika \u010del\u00ed pod\u013ea najnov\u0161\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch d\u00e1t v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu n\u00e1rastu dlhodobej finan\u010dnej zranite\u013enosti. Najnov\u0161ia v\u00fdskumn\u00e1 \u0161t\u00fadia Rady&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":105653,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[32],"tags":[3788,5746,9615,34,37,33,5573,23695,43,40,39,42,41,36,38,35],"class_list":["post-105652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-spravy","tag-analyza","tag-bankrot","tag-dlh","tag-headlines","tag-hlavne-spravy","tag-news","tag-rada-pre-rozpoctovu-zodpovednost","tag-rrz","tag-sk","tag-slovak","tag-slovakia","tag-slovencina","tag-slovensko","tag-spravy","tag-titulky","tag-top-stories"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=105652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/105652\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/105653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=105652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=105652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=105652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}