n-tv.de<\/a> pripomenul, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 sily v posledn\u00fdch t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148och opakovane dok\u00e1zali zasahova\u0165 ciele hlboko na ruskom \u00fazem\u00ed vr\u00e1tane Moskvy. Pr\u00e1ve preto nepochybuje, \u017ee by technicky zvl\u00e1dli aj oper\u00e1ciu namieren\u00fa proti zariadeniam v Bielorusku.<\/p>\nPriamy \u00fatok dronmi alebo raketami by v\u0161ak predstavoval nov\u00fd moment vojny, preto\u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da sa doteraz tak\u00fdmto akci\u00e1m na bieloruskom \u00fazem\u00ed vyh\u00fdbala.<\/p>\n
Zariadenia mo\u017eno zni\u010di\u0165 aj bez v\u00fdbuchov<\/p>\n
Nie je pritom ist\u00e9, \u017ee by Kyjev musel prist\u00fapi\u0165 k vojensk\u00e9mu z\u00e1sahu.<\/p>\n
Ukrajinsk\u00fd diplomat Jaroslav \u010cornohor pre exilov\u00fd port\u00e1l Zerkalo uviedol, \u017ee hlavn\u00fdm cie\u013eom nie je fyzick\u00e1 likvid\u00e1cia zariaden\u00ed, ale ich vyradenie z prev\u00e1dzky. Sp\u00f4sob pod\u013ea neho z\u00e1vis\u00ed od okolnost\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Pripomenul pritom udalos\u0165 z febru\u00e1ra, ke\u010f ukrajinsk\u00fd minister obrany Mychajlo Fedorov ozn\u00e1mil znefunk\u010dnenie siete Mesh, ktor\u00fa mali rusk\u00e9 drony vyu\u017e\u00edva\u0165 pr\u00e1ve z \u00fazemia Bieloruska.<\/p>\n
Podrobnosti oper\u00e1cie Kyjev nikdy nezverejnil. Pod\u013ea dostupn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed v\u0161ak ne\u0161lo o klasick\u00fd \u00fatok pomocou dronov ani rakiet. \u010cornohor tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee technol\u00f3gie sa vtedy podarilo uml\u010da\u0165 na dia\u013eku.<\/p>\n
Psychologick\u00e1 hra alebo re\u00e1lna hrozba?<\/p>\n
Pr\u00e1ve tu sa pod\u013ea Friedmana za\u010d\u00edna najzauj\u00edmavej\u0161ia \u010das\u0165 celej oper\u00e1cie. Expert upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee existuje len minimum nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed o samotn\u00fdch zariadeniach, ktor\u00e9 Ukrajina po\u017eaduje odstr\u00e1ni\u0165. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina spr\u00e1v vych\u00e1dza z \u00fadajov poskytnut\u00fdch samotn\u00fdm Kyjevom a ch\u00fdba ich potvrdenie zo z\u00e1padn\u00fdch spravodajsk\u00fdch zdrojov.<\/p>\n
To pod\u013ea neho vytv\u00e1ra priestor aj pre alternat\u00edvny scen\u00e1r.<\/p>\n
Po vypr\u0161an\u00ed ultim\u00e1ta m\u00f4\u017ee Ukrajina jednoducho ozn\u00e1mi\u0165, \u017ee zariadenia boli vyraden\u00e9 z prev\u00e1dzky, bez mo\u017enosti nez\u00e1visle overi\u0165, \u010di sa tak naozaj stalo. Minsk ani Moskva by podobn\u00e9 tvrdenie s ve\u013ekou pravdepodobnos\u0165ou nepotvrdili. Friedman preto ozna\u010duje cel\u00fd postup za ve\u013emi sofistikovan\u00fa formu psychologickej vojny.<\/p>\n
Luka\u0161enko medzi Kyjevom a Krem\u013eom<\/p>\n
Zelensk\u00e9ho krok z\u00e1rove\u0148 vytv\u00e1ra tlak priamo na Luka\u0161enka. Pod\u013ea Friedmana toti\u017e bielorusk\u00fd l\u00edder nem\u00e1 vo\u013en\u00e9 ruky. Ak s\u00fa zariadenia s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou ruskej vojenskej infra\u0161trukt\u00fary, ich odstr\u00e1nenie by si vy\u017eadovalo s\u00fahlas Moskvy.<\/p>\n
Luka\u0161enko tak m\u00f4\u017ee Kreme\u013e nanajv\u00fd\u0161 po\u017eiada\u0165 o \u00fastupok. \u017de by Vladimir Putin tak\u00fato po\u017eiadavku akceptoval, pova\u017euje expert za mimoriadne nepravdepodobn\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Moskva odk\u00e1zala, \u017ee spojenca ochr\u00e1ni<\/p>\n
Zatia\u013e \u010do Bielorusko sa k ultim\u00e1tu ofici\u00e1lne nevyjadrilo, reakcia pri\u0161la z Ruska. Minister zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch vec\u00ed Sergej Lavrov vyhl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Ukrajina sa sna\u017e\u00ed zatiahnu\u0165 Bielorusko do konfliktu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 zd\u00f4raznil, \u017ee Moskva je pripraven\u00e1 podnikn\u00fa\u0165 v\u0161etky potrebn\u00e9 kroky na ochranu bezpe\u010dnosti svojho spojenca.<\/p>\n
Friedman v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti odvety nie s\u00fa neobmedzen\u00e9. Pod\u013ea neho je predstava, \u017ee by pr\u00edpadn\u00fd \u00fatok na bieloruskom \u00fazem\u00ed viedol k pou\u017eitiu jadrov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed proti Ukrajine, nere\u00e1lna.<\/p>\n
Luka\u0161enko mieri za Putinom<\/p>\n
Bielorusk\u00fd l\u00edder sa k celej kauze verejne nevyjadril ani v nasleduj\u00facich d\u0148och. Ozn\u00e1mil v\u0161ak pl\u00e1novan\u00fa zahrani\u010dn\u00fa cestu, po\u010das ktorej sa stretne s Vladimirom Putinom. Hovorca Krem\u013ea Dmitrij Peskov u\u017e potvrdil, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum bude jednou z t\u00e9m rokovania. Pr\u00e1ve toto stretnutie m\u00f4\u017ee nazna\u010di\u0165, ak\u00fdm smerom sa situ\u00e1cia vyvinie po piatkovom term\u00edne.<\/p>\n
Druh\u00fd Krym?<\/p>\n
B\u00fdval\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd ve\u013evyslanec v Bielorusku Ihor Kysym je presved\u010den\u00fd, \u017ee Kyjev zatia\u013e nebude \u00fato\u010di\u0165 priamo na bielorusk\u00e9 \u00fazemie.<\/p>\n
Za pravdepodobnej\u0161\u00ed scen\u00e1r ozna\u010duje \u00fatoky na logistick\u00e9 trasy sp\u00e1jaj\u00face Rusko a Bielorusko. Ter\u010dom by sa mohli sta\u0165 \u017eeleznice, potrubia alebo cisternov\u00e9 s\u00fapravy nach\u00e1dzaj\u00face sa na ruskom \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea neho by i\u0161lo o podobn\u00fd pr\u00edstup, ak\u00fd Ukrajina vyu\u017e\u00edva na Kryme, kde sa pomocou opakovan\u00fdch \u00fatokov sna\u017e\u00ed oslabi\u0165 spojenie okupovan\u00e9ho polostrova s Ruskom.<\/p>\n
Ani Friedman nevylu\u010duje, \u017ee Kyjev zvol\u00ed pr\u00e1ve tak\u00fato cestu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee vo vojnov\u00fdch podmienkach sa bud\u00faci v\u00fdvoj predpoved\u00e1 len ve\u013emi \u0165a\u017eko.<\/p>\n
Jednou vecou si je v\u0161ak ist\u00fd. Ukrajina pod\u013ea neho disponuje schopnos\u0165ami aj odhodlan\u00edm uskuto\u010dni\u0165 oper\u00e1cie \u010faleko za svojimi hranicami. D\u00f4kazom s\u00fa \u00fatoky, ktor\u00e9 v posledn\u00fdch t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148och poc\u00edtili obyvatelia Moskvy, Petrohradu aj vzdialen\u00fdch oblast\u00ed Sib\u00edri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Volodymyr Zelenskyj a Alexandr Luka\u0161enko (Zdroj: TASR\/AP\/Virginia Mayo, TASR\/AP\/Pavel Bednyakov) T\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 na rozhodnutie Vz\u0165ahy medzi Kyjevom a Minskom…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":106941,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[8],"tags":[19667,2287,33,43,40,42,36,50,303,710,791,49,48],"class_list":["post-106940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-alexandr-lukasenko","tag-bielorusko","tag-news","tag-sk","tag-slovak","tag-slovencina","tag-spravy","tag-svet","tag-ukrajina","tag-utok","tag-volodymyr-zelenskyj","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116806397818927246","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106940\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/106941"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}