N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka Slovenska n\u00e1s svojou letnou progn\u00f3zou veru nepote\u0161ila. Na\u0161a ekonomika narastie tento rok iba o 0,5 %. To je ve\u013emi m\u00e1lo, ove\u013ea menej, ako sa progn\u00f3zovalo na konci minul\u00e9ho roka. Ot\u00e1zkou je, \u010di sme u\u017e na dne, alebo sa budeme prepad\u00e1va\u0165 e\u0161te hlb\u0161ie do bahna, alebo \u010di v druhom polroku za\u010dne svita\u0165 na lep\u0161ie \u010dasy. \u017dia\u013e, na t\u00fato ot\u00e1zku, neexistuje jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 uspokojiv\u00e1 odpove\u010f. <\/p>\n
NBS svoje chm\u00farne v\u00fdh\u013eady do bud\u00facna opiera najm\u00e4 o\u00a0v\u00fdvoj vo svete. Vojna na Bl\u00edzkom v\u00fdchode enormne zv\u00fd\u0161ila cenu ropy a zemn\u00e9ho plynu a tie n\u00e1sledne tla\u010dia na rast v\u0161etk\u00fdch \u010fal\u0161\u00edch komod\u00edt. Cena ropy sa premieta do cien v\u0161etk\u00fdch tovarov, infla\u010dn\u00e9 riziko je vysok\u00e9. Katastrofa by nastala, keby sa naplno rozto\u010dila infla\u010dn\u00e1 \u0161pir\u00e1la. Jedin\u00fd \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd liek je finan\u010dn\u00e1 di\u00e9ta\u00a0\u2013 \u201edusenie\u201c ekonomiky.<\/p>\n
To je \u010dierny scen\u00e1r. No posledn\u00e9 dni d\u00e1vaj\u00fa svetu n\u00e1dej, \u017ee konflikt v\u00a0Perzskom z\u00e1live \u010doskoro odznie a dod\u00e1vky ropy a zemn\u00e9ho plynu na svetov\u00e9 trhy sa vr\u00e1tia do norm\u00e1lu. Ve\u010f ceny ropy u\u017e klesli na prijate\u013en\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 (pohybuj\u00fa sa medzi 70\u00a0a\u017e 80\u00a0dol\u00e1rmi za barel)\u00a0\u2013 aj ke\u010f to nevidno na \u010derpac\u00edch staniciach.<\/p>\n
Ak op\u00e4tovne ned\u00f4jde k\u00a0raketov\u00fdm a dronov\u00fdm prestrelk\u00e1m a zainteresovan\u00e9 krajiny odolaj\u00fa provok\u00e1ci\u00e1m z\u00a0r\u00f4znych str\u00e1n, do\u010dk\u00e1me sa pozit\u00edvneho v\u00fdvoja a zlep\u0161enia n\u00e1lad na svetov\u00fdch trhoch, medzi investormi a podnikate\u013emi.<\/p>\n
Pre Slovensko je to k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitos\u0165. Sme mal\u00e1 a abnorm\u00e1lne otvoren\u00e1 ekonomika, z\u00e1visl\u00e1 od v\u00fdvoja svetovej a zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 eur\u00f3pskej ekonomiky. Premi\u00e9r Robert Fico svoj\u00edm pejorat\u00edvnym v\u00fdrokom, \u017ee \u201e ke\u010f si Nemecko k\u00fdchne, my m\u00e1me z\u00e1pal p\u013e\u00fac\u201c, trafil klinec po hlavi\u010dke. Len\u017ee aj ke\u010f sa situ\u00e1cia vo svete upokoj\u00ed, neznamen\u00e1 to automaticky, \u017ee na\u0161a ekonomika sa z\u00e1zra\u010dne pozviecha a za\u010dne sa jej dramaticky\u00a0dari\u0165.<\/p>\n
\t Keby sme si ale ne\u017eili nad pomery, ekonomika by bola na tom e\u0161te ove\u013ea hor\u0161ie. Ne\u00famern\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0148anie n\u00e1s zachra\u0148uje pred e\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou katastrofou. \u017dia\u013e, na \u00fakor bud\u00facnosti. <\/p>\n
Slovensk\u00fa ekonomiku \u0165ah\u00e1 spotreba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, teda m\u00ed\u0148anie v\u00a0obchodoch\u00a0\u2013 a to u\u017e dlh\u0161ie obdobie. Hoci m\u00e1me jasne najni\u017e\u0161ie mzdy z\u00a0kraj\u00edn V4, m\u00ed\u0148ame rovnako ako \u010cesi (zar\u00e1bame priemerne o\u00a0400\u00a0eur menej). Pritom ceny na Slovensku s\u00fa len o\u00a0m\u00e1li\u010dko ni\u017e\u0161ie ako v\u00a0b\u00fdvalej z\u00e1padnej \u010dasti feder\u00e1cie a vy\u0161\u0161ie ako v\u00a0Po\u013esku a Ma\u010farsku. \u017dijeme si jednoducho nad pomery.<\/p>\n
Na druhej strane nie s\u00fa na\u0161e platy u\u017e tak\u00e9 n\u00edzke, aby sme dok\u00e1zali vo svete konkurova\u0165 n\u00edzkymi mzdov\u00fdmi n\u00e1kladmi, ako sme si zvykli od roku 1990.\u00a0T\u00e1to cesta je u\u017e naveky zar\u00faban\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Keby sme si ale ne\u017eili nad pomery, na\u0161a ekonomika by bola na tom e\u0161te ove\u013ea hor\u0161ie. Ne\u00famern\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0148anie n\u00e1s de facto zachra\u0148uje pred e\u0161te v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou katastrofou. \u017dia\u013e, na \u00fakor bud\u00facnosti. Invest\u00edcie dlhodobo stagnuj\u00fa, podnikatelia v\u00a0neistom prostred\u00ed v\u00e1haj\u00fa, nestabiln\u00e1 situ\u00e1cia vo svete odr\u00e1dza od investovania. Okrem spotreby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed m\u00e1me na\u0161\u0165astie druh\u00fa barlu, ktor\u00e1 dr\u017e\u00ed ekonomiku na noh\u00e1ch\u00a0\u2013 verejn\u00e9 invest\u00edcie (\u0161t\u00e1tny rozpo\u010det a eurofondy) do infra\u0161trukt\u00fary.<\/p>\n
Hoci po\u010d\u00favame, ako vl\u00e1da v\u00edta zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch investorov, oproti krajin\u00e1m V4 dramaticky zaost\u00e1vame\u00a0\u2013 ani o\u00a0tom nevieme. Postupne sa rozbieha v\u00fdroba na v\u00fdchode v\u00a0automobilke Volvo, \u010do sa stane pre ekonomiku \u017eivotodarnou injekciou. Ale \u201eklasick\u00e1\u201c inf\u00fazia nepostav\u00ed ekonomiku na nohy, ak neza\u010dne \u201ejes\u0165\u201c sama od\u00a0seba.<\/p>\n
\u010co by mala \u201ejes\u0165\u201c, je ot\u00e1zka. Jednozna\u010dne treba zlep\u0161i\u0165 investi\u010dn\u00e9 prostredie pre dom\u00e1ce firmy i (stredne ve\u013ek\u00fdch) zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch investorov, aby sa un\u00favali pr\u00eds\u0165 na Slovensko. Sme zvedav\u00ed, ak\u00e9 menu priprav\u00ed koal\u00edcia na jese\u0148. No ak sa neum\u00fadri \u201epo\u010dasie\u201c vo svete, na kvalitn\u00e9 potraviny m\u00f4\u017eeme zabudn\u00fa\u0165.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"N\u00e1rodn\u00e1 banka Slovenska n\u00e1s svojou letnou progn\u00f3zou veru nepote\u0161ila. Na\u0161a ekonomika narastie tento rok iba o 0,5 %.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":107331,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[6],"tags":[36343,588,2704,36342,23575,28299,43,40,44,39,42,45,41],"class_list":["post-107330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-slovensko","tag-makroekonomicka-prognoza","tag-nazory","tag-nbs","tag-prognoza-rastu","tag-rast-ekonomiky","tag-rast-hdp","tag-sk","tag-slovak","tag-slovak-republic","tag-slovakia","tag-slovencina","tag-slovenska-republika","tag-slovensko"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116809275955286828","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107330","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107330"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107330\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/107331"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107330"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107330"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107330"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}