CANBERRA – Kolaps civiliz\u00e1cie nemus\u00ed vyzera\u0165 ako apokalyptick\u00fd film, v ktorom sa svet zr\u00fati po\u010das jedin\u00e9ho d\u0148a. Jeden z popredn\u00fdch klimatol\u00f3gov varoval, \u017ee ove\u013ea pravdepodobnej\u0161\u00ed je postupn\u00fd \u00fapadok sprev\u00e1dzan\u00fd region\u00e1lnymi kr\u00edzami, nedostatkom zdrojov a rast\u00facou nestabilitou. Za rozhoduj\u00face obdobie ozna\u010dil desa\u0165ro\u010die, v ktorom pr\u00e1ve \u017eijeme<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\t\u201eKolaps je najpravdepodobnej\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkom\u201c<\/p>\n
Mimoriadne pochm\u00farne varovanie profesora Willa Steffena, dlhoro\u010dn\u00e9ho klimatol\u00f3ga Austr\u00e1lskej n\u00e1rodnej univerzity, op\u00e4\u0165 pripomenul britsk\u00fd Daily Star.<\/p>\n
M\u00e1 v\u0161ak d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fd h\u00e1\u010dik. Nejde o nov\u00fa vedeck\u00fa progn\u00f3zu. Steffen tieto slov\u00e1 vyslovil u\u017e v roku 2020 v rozhovore pre Voice of Action, ktor\u00fd n\u00e1sledne publikoval port\u00e1l Resilience.<\/p>\n
Vedec vtedy tvrdil, \u017ee klimatick\u00e1 zmena, po\u0161kodzovanie biosf\u00e9ry a rast\u00faca nerovnos\u0165 nie s\u00fa oddelen\u00fdmi probl\u00e9mami, ale r\u00f4znymi prejavmi toho ist\u00e9ho neudr\u017eate\u013en\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n
\u201eKolaps je najpravdepodobnej\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkom s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9ho smerovania teraj\u0161ieho syst\u00e9mu,\u201c povedal Steffen.<\/p>\n
Jeho varovanie vych\u00e1dzalo aj z v\u00fdskumu klimatick\u00fdch bodov zlomu. Tie predstavuj\u00fa hranice, po prekro\u010den\u00ed ktor\u00fdch m\u00f4\u017ee ur\u010dit\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 klimatick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu prejs\u0165 do nov\u00e9ho stavu a zmenu u\u017e m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 mimoriadne \u0165a\u017ek\u00e9 alebo nemo\u017en\u00e9 zvr\u00e1ti\u0165.<\/p>\n
Efekt padaj\u00facich dominov\u00fdch kociek<\/p>\n
Steffen sa ob\u00e1val predov\u0161etk\u00fdm takzvanej kask\u00e1dy bodov zlomu. Jedna ve\u013ek\u00e1 zmena m\u00f4\u017ee ovplyvni\u0165 \u010fal\u0161iu a postupne spusti\u0165 re\u0165azov\u00fa reakciu.<\/p>\n
Ako pr\u00edklady vedci uv\u00e1dzali \u00fabytok arktick\u00e9ho morsk\u00e9ho \u013eadu, topenie gr\u00f3nskeho a z\u00e1padoantarktick\u00e9ho \u013eadovca, rozm\u0155zanie permafrostu \u010di po\u0161kodzovanie Amazonsk\u00e9ho pralesa.<\/p>\n
Steffen tento mechanizmus prirovn\u00e1val k radu dominov\u00fdch kociek. Ak sa podar\u00ed zhodi\u0165 prv\u00fdch nieko\u013eko, m\u00f4\u017eu za sebou strhn\u00fa\u0165 \u010fal\u0161ie.<\/p>\n
Spolu s \u010fal\u0161\u00edmi klimatol\u00f3gmi u\u017e v roku 2019 v odbornom \u010dasopise Nature upozor\u0148oval, \u017ee vz\u00e1jomn\u00e9 p\u00f4sobenie klimatick\u00fdch bodov zlomu nemo\u017eno vyl\u00fa\u010di\u0165 a potenci\u00e1lna glob\u00e1lna kask\u00e1da by predstavovala existen\u010dn\u00e9 ohrozenie civiliz\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n
Neznamen\u00e1 to v\u0161ak vedeck\u00fa predpove\u010f, \u017ee civiliz\u00e1cia ur\u010dite skolabuje. Ide o hodnotenie rizika pri pokra\u010dovan\u00ed nepriazniv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja.<\/p>\n
Rozhodn\u00fa\u0165 sa malo pr\u00e1ve toto desa\u0165ro\u010die<\/p>\n
Z dne\u0161n\u00e9ho poh\u013eadu je zauj\u00edmav\u00e1 najm\u00e4 Steffenova \u010dasov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za.<\/p>\n
\u201eJe ve\u013emi pravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee do roku 2030 budeme vedie\u0165, ktorou cestou sme sa vydali,\u201c povedal v roku 2020.<\/p>\n
Na jednej strane videl cestu k udr\u017eate\u013enej\u0161iemu fungovaniu spolo\u010dnosti, na druhej pokra\u010dovanie vtedaj\u0161ieho smerovania k pravdepodobn\u00e9mu kolapsu.<\/p>\n
Nemyslel t\u00fdm, \u017ee v roku 2030 nastane koniec civiliz\u00e1cie. Pr\u00e1ve naopak. Steffen upozor\u0148oval, \u017ee pr\u00edpadn\u00fd kolaps pravdepodobne nebude jednou dramatickou glob\u00e1lnou udalos\u0165ou.<\/p>\n
O\u010dak\u00e1val sk\u00f4r postupn\u00e9 zhor\u0161ovanie r\u00f4znych oblast\u00ed \u017eivota, preru\u0161ovan\u00e9 region\u00e1lnymi kolapsmi a obdobiami, ke\u010f sa \u0161t\u00e1tom a spolo\u010dnostiam podar\u00ed niektor\u00e9 probl\u00e9my do\u010dasne stabilizova\u0165.<\/p>\n
Nie koniec \u013eudstva<\/p>\n
E\u0161te pochm\u00farnej\u0161ie sa v tom \u010dase vyjadroval nemeck\u00fd klimatol\u00f3g Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, zakladaj\u00faci riadite\u013e Postupimsk\u00e9ho in\u0161tit\u00fatu pre v\u00fdskum klimatick\u00fdch vplyvov.<\/p>\n
Schellnhuber varoval, \u017ee pokra\u010dovanie po rovnakej trajekt\u00f3rii predstavuje ve\u013ek\u00e9 riziko pre modern\u00fa civiliz\u00e1ciu.<\/p>\n
Rozli\u0161oval v\u0161ak medzi kolapsom civiliz\u00e1cie a vyhynut\u00edm \u010dloveka. \u013dudsk\u00fd druh by pod\u013ea neho pravdepodobne pre\u017eil, no mohol by pr\u00eds\u0165 o ve\u013ek\u00fa \u010das\u0165 spolo\u010densk\u00fdch, ekonomick\u00fdch a technologick\u00fdch \u0161trukt\u00far vytvoren\u00fdch po\u010das uplynul\u00fdch st\u00e1ro\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n
Ani toto tvrdenie nepredstavovalo konsenzu\u00e1lnu predpove\u010f, \u017ee tak\u00fdto scen\u00e1r nevyhnutne nastane. I\u0161lo o varovanie pred mo\u017en\u00fdm d\u00f4sledkom pokra\u010dovania nepriazniv\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja.<\/p>\n
Star\u00fd model des\u00ed dodnes<\/p>\n
Steffen pri svojom hodnoten\u00ed pripom\u00ednal aj sl\u00e1vnu \u0161t\u00fadiu Limits to Growth \u2013 Hranice rastu z roku 1972. Vedci z Massachusettsk\u00e9ho technologick\u00e9ho in\u0161tit\u00fatu v nej pomocou po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov\u00e9ho modelovania sk\u00famali vz\u0165ahy medzi rastom popul\u00e1cie, priemyslom, produkciou potrav\u00edn, vyu\u017e\u00edvan\u00edm pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch zdrojov a zne\u010disten\u00edm.<\/p>\n
Model nevypo\u010d\u00edtal konkr\u00e9tny de\u0148 \u201ekonca sveta\u201c. Pri niektor\u00fdch scen\u00e1roch v\u0161ak uk\u00e1zal, \u017ee pokra\u010duj\u00faci nekontrolovan\u00fd rast m\u00f4\u017ee v 21. storo\u010d\u00ed vies\u0165 k prudk\u00e9mu poklesu priemyselnej produkcie, potrav\u00edn a n\u00e1sledne popul\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n
Steffen v roku 2020 tvrdil, \u017ee pr\u00e1ve tak\u00fdto nepriazniv\u00fd v\u00fdvoj mu pripom\u00edna smerovanie modernej spolo\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n
Bud\u00facnos\u0165 nie je naprogramovan\u00e1<\/p>\n
Ani autori podobn\u00fdch varovan\u00ed v\u0161ak netvrdili, \u017ee \u013eudstvo m\u00e1 pred sebou pevne stanoven\u00fd d\u00e1tum z\u00e1niku.<\/p>\n
Steffen zd\u00f4raz\u0148oval, \u017ee aj pri nepriaznivom v\u00fdvoji m\u00e1 zmysel kona\u0165. Rozdiel medzi oteplen\u00edm o tri a \u0161tyri stupne m\u00f4\u017ee ma\u0165 obrovsk\u00e9 d\u00f4sledky a ka\u017ed\u00fd odvr\u00e1ten\u00fd bod zlomu zni\u017euje bud\u00face rizik\u00e1.<\/p>\n
Podobne argumentoval austr\u00e1lsky v\u00fdskumn\u00edk Samuel Alexander, pod\u013ea ktor\u00e9ho pr\u00edpadn\u00fd spolo\u010densk\u00fd \u00fapadok m\u00f4\u017ee prebieha\u0165 cel\u00e9 desa\u0165ro\u010dia \u2013 kr\u00edzy sa striedaj\u00fa s obdobiami zotavenia, po\u010das ktor\u00fdch vl\u00e1dy a spolo\u010dnos\u0165 syst\u00e9m opravuj\u00fa a udr\u017eiavaj\u00fa v chode.<\/p>\n
Katastrofick\u00e9 titulky preto m\u00f4\u017eu vytv\u00e1ra\u0165 trochu skreslen\u00fa predstavu. Vedci neozn\u00e1mili d\u00e1tum konca sveta ani okamih, ke\u010f sa modern\u00e1 spolo\u010dnos\u0165 nevyhnutne zr\u00fati.<\/p>\n
Ich varovanie bolo in\u00e9: ak sa viacero environment\u00e1lnych a spolo\u010densk\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov za\u010dne navz\u00e1jom zosil\u0148ova\u0165, schopnos\u0165 civiliz\u00e1cie zvl\u00e1da\u0165 \u010fal\u0161ie kr\u00edzy m\u00f4\u017ee postupne slabn\u00fa\u0165. A pr\u00e1ve roky do konca tohto desa\u0165ro\u010dia pova\u017eoval Steffen za rozhoduj\u00face pre to, ak\u00fdm smerom sa tento v\u00fdvoj vyd\u00e1.
\n\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"CANBERRA – Kolaps civiliz\u00e1cie nemus\u00ed vyzera\u0165 ako apokalyptick\u00fd film, v ktorom sa svet zr\u00fati po\u010das jedin\u00e9ho d\u0148a. Jeden…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":163436,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[8],"tags":[9205,47240,33,5250,43,40,42,36,50,5343,49,48],"class_list":["post-163435","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-svet","tag-klimaticka-zmena","tag-koniec-civilizacie","tag-news","tag-predpoved","tag-sk","tag-slovak","tag-slovencina","tag-spravy","tag-svet","tag-vedci","tag-world","tag-world-news"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/117171156576144496","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163435","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=163435"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/163435\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/163436"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=163435"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=163435"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=163435"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}