WASHINGTON – Americk\u00fd prezident priznal, \u017ee rozsah ir\u00e1nskej reakcie ho zasko\u010dil. Analytici aj spravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby v\u0161ak tvrdia, \u017ee tak\u00fdto v\u00fdvoj bol dlho predv\u00eddate\u013en\u00fd.<\/p>\n
\t\t\t\tTrump hovor\u00ed o \u0161oku. Experti o predv\u00eddate\u013enom scen\u00e1ri<\/p>\n
\u201eNemali \u00fato\u010di\u0165 na v\u0161etky tie krajiny v Perzskom z\u00e1live\u2026 Katar, Saudsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bia, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty, Bahrajn, Kuvajt\u2026 To nikto ne\u010dakal. \u00daplne n\u00e1s to \u0161okovalo,\u201c vyhl\u00e1sil prezident USA Donald Trump pred novin\u00e1rmi po s\u00e9rii ir\u00e1nskych raketov\u00fdch a dronov\u00fdch \u00fatokov.<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea jeho slov tak\u00fdto v\u00fdvoj nepredpokladali ani najsk\u00fasenej\u0161\u00ed odborn\u00edci. \u010cas\u0165 m\u00e9di\u00ed a analytikov v\u0161ak jeho tvrdenia spochyb\u0148uje \u2013 upozor\u0148uj\u00fa, \u017ee podobn\u00fd scen\u00e1r bol vopred pomenovan\u00fd.<\/p>\n
Spravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby aj analytici varovali<\/p>\n
Agent\u00fara Reuters uv\u00e1dza, \u017ee americk\u00e9 spravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby upozor\u0148ovali Trumpa na mo\u017enos\u0165, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n v pr\u00edpade eskal\u00e1cie zasiahne susedn\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty v regi\u00f3ne. Prezident sa v\u0161ak pod\u013ea dostupn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed t\u00fdmto varovaniam neprisp\u00f4sobil.<\/p>\n
Len nieko\u013eko dn\u00ed pred vypuknut\u00edm konfliktu publikoval Mate Swanson v magaz\u00edne Foreign Affairs anal\u00fdzu, v ktorej predpovedal presne tak\u00fdto v\u00fdvoj \u2013 Ir\u00e1n by pod\u013ea neho reagoval roz\u0161\u00edren\u00edm konfliktu.<\/p>\n
Swanson pritom nebol n\u00e1hodn\u00fd koment\u00e1tor. V minulosti viedol ir\u00e1nske oddelenie N\u00e1rodnej bezpe\u010dnostnej rady a podie\u013eal sa aj na rokovaniach USA s Teher\u00e1nom.<\/p>\n
Hormuzsk\u00fd prieliv: krok, s ktor\u00fdm sa r\u00e1talo desa\u0165ro\u010dia<\/p>\n
\u010eal\u0161\u00edm momentom, ktor\u00fd prezidenta pod\u013ea jeho slov zasko\u010dil, bolo rozhodnutie Ir\u00e1nu uzavrie\u0165 Hormuzsk\u00fd prieliv \u2013 k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00fa tepnu svetov\u00e9ho obchodu s energiami. Tento krok by mohol ochromi\u0165 pribli\u017ene tretinu glob\u00e1lnych dod\u00e1vok ropy a p\u00e4tinu zemn\u00e9ho plynu.<\/p>\n
Pr\u00e1ve tento scen\u00e1r v\u0161ak americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 pl\u00e1novanie dlhodobo pova\u017eovalo za re\u00e1lny. Ir\u00e1nski predstavitelia navy\u0161e tak\u00fdmto krokom opakovane hrozili u\u017e od 80. rokov \u2013 vyjadrovali sa tak prezidenti, gener\u00e1li aj predstavitelia Revolu\u010dn\u00fdch g\u00e1rd.<\/p>\n
Jeden z americk\u00fdch koment\u00e1torov preto situ\u00e1ciu ozna\u010dil za \u201enajviac o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fa reakciu v dejin\u00e1ch\u201c.<\/p>\n
B\u00fdval\u00fd vysok\u00fd americk\u00fd predstavite\u013e pre CNN zd\u00f4raznil: \u201ePrevencia presne tohto scen\u00e1ra bola desa\u0165ro\u010dia z\u00e1kladom bezpe\u010dnostn\u00e9ho pl\u00e1novania USA. Som v \u0161oku.\u201c<\/p>\n
Uzavretie prielivu nie je technicky zlo\u017eit\u00e9<\/p>\n
Z vojensk\u00e9ho poh\u013eadu nejde o neprekonate\u013en\u00fa oper\u00e1ciu. Hoci Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty v\u00fdrazne oslabili ir\u00e1nske n\u00e1morn\u00edctvo, samotn\u00e9 zablokovanie \u00fa\u017einy si nevy\u017eaduje rozsiahle sily.<\/p>\n
Plavebn\u00fd koridor m\u00e1 na niektor\u00fdch miestach \u0161\u00edrku len nieko\u013ek\u00fdch kilometrov. Na jeho naru\u0161enie sta\u010dia n\u00e1morn\u00e9 m\u00edny, r\u00fdchle \u010dlny, bezpilotn\u00e9 prostriedky \u010di protilodn\u00e9 rakety.<\/p>\n
Ak re\u017eim bojuje o svoje pre\u017eitie, ide pod\u013ea expertov o logick\u00fd a o\u010dak\u00e1vate\u013en\u00fd krok.<\/p>\n
Podcenen\u00e1 pr\u00edprava a oneskoren\u00e1 reakcia<\/p>\n
Z dostupn\u00fdch inform\u00e1ci\u00ed vypl\u00fdva, \u017ee Biely dom r\u00e1tal sk\u00f4r s r\u00fdchlou a obmedzenou oper\u00e1ciou. Americk\u00e9 n\u00e1morn\u00edctvo preto nem\u00e1 v oblasti dostato\u010dn\u00e9 kapacity na zabezpe\u010denie ochrany tankerov.<\/p>\n
Posilnenie pr\u00edtomnosti sa realizuje a\u017e dodato\u010dne \u2013 jednotky sa pres\u00favaj\u00fa napr\u00edklad z Japonska, \u010do nazna\u010duje, \u017ee tak\u00fdto v\u00fdvoj nebol v pl\u00e1noch prioritou.<\/p>\n
Dopad na ekonomiku a politiku<\/p>\n
Hoci s\u00fa Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty dnes energeticky menej z\u00e1visl\u00e9 ne\u017e v minulosti, glob\u00e1lne trhy reaguj\u00fa citlivo. Cena benz\u00ednu v USA u\u017e prekro\u010dila hranicu p\u00e4\u0165 dol\u00e1rov za gal\u00f3n \u2013 psychologicky v\u00fdznamn\u00fa \u00farove\u0148 pre americk\u00fdch voli\u010dov.<\/p>\n
V kombin\u00e1cii s bl\u00ed\u017eiacimi sa dopl\u0148ovac\u00edmi vo\u013ebami do Kongresu to m\u00f4\u017ee predstavova\u0165 pre Trumpa politick\u00fd probl\u00e9m.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON – Americk\u00fd prezident priznal, \u017ee rozsah ir\u00e1nskej reakcie ho zasko\u010dil. Analytici aj spravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby v\u0161ak tvrdia, \u017ee…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22079,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[4341,241,34,37,4562,921,33,43,40,39,42,41,10743,36,38,35,710,10742],"class_list":{"0":"post-22078","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-spravy","8":"tag-blizky-vychod","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-headlines","11":"tag-hlavne-spravy","12":"tag-hormuzsky-prieliv","13":"tag-iran","14":"tag-news","15":"tag-sk","16":"tag-slovak","17":"tag-slovakia","18":"tag-slovencina","19":"tag-slovensko","20":"tag-sok","21":"tag-spravy","22":"tag-titulky","23":"tag-top-stories","24":"tag-utok","25":"tag-uzavretie"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116251471561134933","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22078\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}