Daily Mail<\/a> polo\u017eil aj analytik John Kennedy z think-tanku RAND Europe.<\/p>\nTen sa pok\u00fasil pomenova\u0165 scen\u00e1re, ktor\u00e9 by mohli ukon\u010di\u0165 vl\u00e1du rusk\u00e9ho prezidenta \u2013 od atent\u00e1tu a\u017e po prevrat. Jeho z\u00e1ver v\u0161ak prekvapuje: najpravdepodobnej\u0161ie je, \u017ee Putin zomrie vo funkcii.<\/p>\n
Biologick\u00e9 limity a sign\u00e1ly z Krem\u013ea<\/p>\n
Putin sa bl\u00ed\u017ei k veku, ktor\u00fd bol pre rusk\u00fdch l\u00eddrov historicky kritick\u00fd. U\u017e dnes patr\u00ed medzi najdlh\u0161ie vl\u00e1dnucich predstavite\u013eov krajiny od \u010dias Josifa Stalina.<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea Kennedyho nazna\u010duj\u00fa r\u00f4zne spr\u00e1vy o zdravotnom stave aj alternat\u00edvnej lie\u010dbe, \u017ee jeho koniec m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 sk\u00f4r, ne\u017e sa o\u010dak\u00e1va.<\/p>\n
Pre\u010do je prevrat nepravdepodobn\u00fd<\/p>\n
Scen\u00e1r n\u00e1siln\u00e9ho zvrhnutia moci pova\u017euje expert za m\u00e1lo re\u00e1lny. Putin toti\u017e pod\u013ea neho vybudoval syst\u00e9m, ktor\u00fd stoj\u00ed v\u00fdlu\u010dne na osobnej lojalite. \u201eObklopil sa \u013eu\u010fmi, ktor\u00fdm d\u00f4veruje. Ide preva\u017ene o jeho dlhoro\u010dn\u00fdch spolupracovn\u00edkov,\u201c vysvet\u013euje Kennedy.<\/p>\n
Od za\u010diatku vojny na Ukrajina sa pod\u013ea neho koncentr\u00e1cia moci e\u0161te posilnila. Ani po smrti opozi\u010dn\u00e9ho l\u00eddra Alexeja Nava\u013en\u00e9ho sa neobjavil v\u00fdrazn\u00fd odpor.<\/p>\n
Represie vo\u010di opoz\u00edcii pod\u013ea analytika prakticky eliminovali mo\u017enos\u0165 otvoren\u00e9ho vzdoru.<\/p>\n
Atent\u00e1t? Hrozba prich\u00e1dza z regi\u00f3nov<\/p>\n
\u00daplne vyl\u00fa\u010den\u00fd nie je ani scen\u00e1r atent\u00e1tu. Kennedy v\u0161ak upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee potenci\u00e1lne riziko nemus\u00ed poch\u00e1dza\u0165 z moskovsk\u00fdch el\u00edt.<\/p>\n
Nap\u00e4tie m\u00f4\u017ee r\u00e1s\u0165 sk\u00f4r v regi\u00f3noch, ktor\u00e9 najviac dopl\u00e1caj\u00fa na vojnu. Pr\u00e1ve z chudobnej\u0161\u00edch oblast\u00ed poch\u00e1dza ve\u013ek\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 mobilizovan\u00fdch vojakov. \u201eRozdiel medzi \u017eivotom v Moskve a v regi\u00f3noch je obrovsk\u00fd,\u201c kon\u0161tatuje expert. Ak sa frustr\u00e1cia preh\u013abi, m\u00f4\u017ee prer\u00e1s\u0165 do n\u00e1silia.<\/p>\n
Menej na o\u010diach, viac ot\u00e1zok<\/p>\n
Putin sa v poslednom obdob\u00ed objavuje na verejnosti menej \u010dasto. Kennedy za t\u00fdm vid\u00ed kombin\u00e1ciu mo\u017en\u00fdch faktorov \u2013 zdravotn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, vy\u010derpanie aj rast\u00facu ned\u00f4veru.<\/p>\n
Aj napriek silnej ochrane pod\u013ea neho nemo\u017eno vyl\u00fa\u010di\u0165, \u017ee sa n\u00e1jde niekto, kto bude ochotn\u00fd kona\u0165.<\/p>\n
Po Putinovi m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 chaos<\/p>\n
Analytik z\u00e1rove\u0148 varuje, \u017ee skuto\u010dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 a\u017e po Putinovom odchode. Mocensk\u00e9 \u0161trukt\u00fary v Rusku s\u00fa pod\u013ea neho nastaven\u00e9 tak, \u017ee bez centr\u00e1lnej postavy sa r\u00fdchlo dostan\u00fa do konfliktu.<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1pad by sa preto mal pripravi\u0165 na r\u00f4zne scen\u00e1re \u2013 od vn\u00fatorn\u00fdch bojov a\u017e po z\u00e1sadn\u00e9 politick\u00e9 zmeny. \u201eSitu\u00e1cia v Rusku je z dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska pripraven\u00e1 na otras,\u201c upozor\u0148uje Kennedy.<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea neho m\u00f4\u017ee nasledova\u0165 v\u0161etko \u2013 od riaden\u00e9ho prechodu moci cez vojensk\u00fd prevrat a\u017e po spont\u00e1nne protesty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin (Zdroj: SITA\/Vyacheslav Prokofyev\/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP) LOND\u00ddN – Bud\u00facnos\u0165 Vladimira Putina vyvol\u00e1va…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25963,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[12166,8608,33,7977,237,43,40,42,36,50,239,49,48],"class_list":{"0":"post-25962","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-expert","9":"tag-kremel","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-odchod","12":"tag-rusko","13":"tag-sk","14":"tag-slovak","15":"tag-slovencina","16":"tag-spravy","17":"tag-svet","18":"tag-vladimir-putin","19":"tag-world","20":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116278666495390280","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25962"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25962\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}