Foreign Affairs<\/a>.<\/p>\nToto je presne ten typ scen\u00e1ra, ktor\u00fd p\u00f4sob\u00ed desivej\u0161ie pr\u00e1ve t\u00fdm, \u017ee nemus\u00ed vyzera\u0165 ako vojna. A pr\u00e1ve preto m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 pre Z\u00e1pad ove\u013ea \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie na\u0148 reagova\u0165.<\/p>\n
Kr\u00edza by sa mohla za\u010da\u0165 nen\u00e1padne<\/p>\n
Pod\u013ea analytikov by Peking nemusel spusti\u0165 klasick\u00fa blok\u00e1du ani vojensk\u00fd \u00fatok. \u010c\u00edna by mohla za\u010da\u0165 s\u00e9riou \u201eadministrat\u00edvnych\u201c opatren\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 by navonok p\u00f4sobili ako be\u017en\u00e1 kontrola dopravy a obchodu.<\/p>\n
\u010c\u00ednske \u00farady by napr\u00edklad zaviedli coln\u00e9 kontroly lod\u00ed a lietadiel smeruj\u00facich na Taiwan alebo z neho. Form\u00e1lne by tvrdili, \u017ee iba uplat\u0148uj\u00fa vlastn\u00e9 z\u00e1kony a chr\u00e1nia svoje \u00fazemie.<\/p>\n
V praxi by v\u0161ak z\u00edskali kontrolu nad taiwansk\u00fdm obchodom aj dopravou.<\/p>\n
Taiwan by sa dostal pod tlak bez v\u00fdstrelov<\/p>\n
Ne\u0161lo by o klasick\u00fa vojensk\u00fa blok\u00e1du. \u013dudia aj tovar by sa s\u00edce mohli pohybova\u0165 \u010falej, ale len za podmienok stanoven\u00fdch Pekingom.<\/p>\n
K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 technol\u00f3gie, strategick\u00e9 komponenty alebo dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed by mohli by\u0165 zastaven\u00e9. Taiwan by sa tak postupne dost\u00e1val do situ\u00e1cie, v ktorej by str\u00e1cal schopnos\u0165 samostatne riadi\u0165 vlastn\u00fa ekonomiku.<\/p>\n
Foreign Affairs upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee medzin\u00e1rodn\u00e9 firmy by sa pravdepodobne r\u00fdchlo prisp\u00f4sobili nov\u00fdm pravidl\u00e1m. Riziko zadr\u017eania tovaru, straty poistenia alebo probl\u00e9mov s \u010d\u00ednskymi \u00faradmi by bolo pre v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu spolo\u010dnost\u00ed pr\u00edli\u0161 ve\u013ek\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Pr\u00e1ve t\u00fdm by pod\u013ea analytikov mohla \u010c\u00edna z\u00edska\u0165 faktick\u00fa kontrolu nad ostrovom bez otvorenej vojny.<\/p>\n
Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty by st\u00e1li pred \u0165a\u017ek\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm<\/p>\n
Tak\u00fdto scen\u00e1r by vytvoril obrovsk\u00fd probl\u00e9m pre Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty aj ich spojencov.<\/p>\n
Ak by Washington zasiahol, riskoval by prudk\u00fa eskal\u00e1ciu a otras svetovej ekonomiky. Ak by nereagoval, mohol by sledova\u0165 postupn\u00e9 oslabovanie Taiwanu bez mo\u017enosti jednoduch\u00e9ho proti\u00fatoku.<\/p>\n
Najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9m spo\u010d\u00edva v tom, \u017ee podobn\u00e9 kroky by nemuseli by\u0165 ofici\u00e1lne pova\u017eovan\u00e9 za vojnov\u00fd akt. Dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00e9 re\u0165azce by sa neskolabovali okam\u017eite a svetov\u00e1 ekonomika by mohla e\u0161te ur\u010dit\u00fd \u010das fungova\u0165 relat\u00edvne norm\u00e1lne.<\/p>\n
Pr\u00e1ve t\u00e1to \u201e\u0161ed\u00e1 z\u00f3na\u201c rob\u00ed pod\u013ea expertov \u010d\u00ednsku strat\u00e9giu mimoriadne nebezpe\u010dnou.<\/p>\n
Otrasy by poc\u00edtil cel\u00fd svet<\/p>\n
D\u00f4sledky pr\u00edpadnej kr\u00edzy okolo Taiwanu by \u010faleko presiahli hranice \u00c1zie.<\/p>\n
Finan\u010dn\u00e9 trhy by mohli zasiahnu\u0165 v\u00fdpredaje a panika investorov. Pois\u0165ovne by mohli presta\u0165 kry\u0165 rizikov\u00e9 n\u00e1morn\u00e9 trasy a probl\u00e9my v taiwanskej v\u00fdrobe polovodi\u010dov by zasiahli technologick\u00fd priemysel po celom svete.<\/p>\n
Pod tlak by sa z\u00e1rove\u0148 mohli dosta\u0165 aj \u010fal\u0161ie krajiny regi\u00f3nu vr\u00e1tane Japonska, Ju\u017enej K\u00f3rey \u010di Filip\u00edn.<\/p>\n
Analytici upozor\u0148uj\u00fa, \u017ee Peking by t\u00fdmto sp\u00f4sobom mohol postupne meni\u0165 mocensk\u00e9 pomery v \u00c1zii bez toho, aby rozp\u00fatal klasick\u00fa vojnu.<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1pad pod\u013ea expertov st\u00e1le nem\u00e1 pl\u00e1n<\/p>\n
Napriek rokom diskusi\u00ed o mo\u017enom konflikte okolo Taiwanu pod\u013ea Foreign Affairs st\u00e1le neexistuje jasn\u00e1 strat\u00e9gia, ako reagova\u0165 na tak\u00fdto typ kr\u00edzy.<\/p>\n
Ch\u00fdbaj\u00fa koordinovan\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny, spolo\u010dn\u00e9 postupy pre komunik\u00e1ciu s finan\u010dn\u00fdmi trhmi aj konkr\u00e9tne rie\u0161enia, ako udr\u017ea\u0165 z\u00e1sobovanie Taiwanu v pr\u00edpade izol\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n
\u010eal\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mom by mohla by\u0165 evaku\u00e1cia zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch ob\u010danov, ktor\u00e1 by mohla vyvola\u0165 paniku a situ\u00e1ciu e\u0161te viac destabilizova\u0165.<\/p>\n
Boj o Taiwan nemus\u00ed vyzera\u0165 ako vojna<\/p>\n
Experti preto vyz\u00fdvaj\u00fa na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed pr\u00edstup ne\u017e len pr\u00edpravu na vojensk\u00fd konflikt. Odpor\u00fa\u010daj\u00fa posil\u0148ova\u0165 ekonomick\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 vz\u0165ahy s Taiwanom, zni\u017eova\u0165 z\u00e1vislos\u0165 od \u010c\u00edny a z\u00e1rove\u0148 budova\u0165 nov\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 strat\u00e9gie prisp\u00f4soben\u00e9 modern\u00fdm form\u00e1m n\u00e1tlaku.<\/p>\n
Cie\u013eom pod\u013ea nich nie je len zabr\u00e1ni\u0165 vojne, ale pred\u00eds\u0165 samotnej kr\u00edze.<\/p>\n
Ak by toti\u017e podobn\u00fd scen\u00e1r raz nastal, svet mo\u017eno ani nespozn\u00e1 presn\u00fd moment, ke\u010f sa za\u010dal konflikt. Jeho n\u00e1sledky by v\u0161ak mohli z\u00e1sadne zmeni\u0165 glob\u00e1lne usporiadanie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"PEKING – \u010c\u00edna by pod\u013ea analytikov mohla dosta\u0165 Taiwan pod svoju kontrolu aj bez otvorenej vojny. Magaz\u00edn Foreign…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57886,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[273,919,33,3953,43,40,42,36,50,9364,49,48,23108],"class_list":{"0":"post-57885","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-cina","9":"tag-globalna-ekonomika","10":"tag-news","11":"tag-obchod","12":"tag-sk","13":"tag-slovak","14":"tag-slovencina","15":"tag-spravy","16":"tag-svet","17":"tag-taiwan","18":"tag-world","19":"tag-world-news","20":"tag-ziskanie-kontroly"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116494888001864606","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57885\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}