\u010cL\u00c1NOK POKRA\u010cUJE POD REKLAMOU<\/p>\n
F\u00ednsko zverejnilo doteraz utajovan\u00fd scen\u00e1r mo\u017en\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu s Ruskom<\/a> a jeho obsah vyvol\u00e1va pozornos\u0165 naprie\u010d celou Eur\u00f3pou. Rozhovor, ktor\u00fd pripravil fi\u0301nsky port\u00e1l ERR<\/a> opisuje krok za krokom, ako by sa mohol konflikt za\u010da\u0165 aj eskalova\u0165 do plnohodnotnej vojny.<\/p>\n Najpodstatnej\u0161\u00edm momentom v\u0161ak nie je priamy \u00fatok, ale ne\u010dakan\u00fd incident. Ide o p\u00e1d rusk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho lietadla na \u00fazem\u00ed F\u00ednska, ktor\u00fd by mohol sl\u00fa\u017ei\u0165 ako z\u00e1mienka pre \u010fal\u0161iu eskal\u00e1ciu.<\/p>\n Konflikt by neza\u010dal bombami, ale tlakom<\/p>\n Pod\u013ea f\u00ednskeho prezidenta Alexandra Stubba by vojna neza\u010dala okam\u017eit\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm \u00fatokom. Prv\u00e9 f\u00e1zy by mali sk\u00f4r zmie\u0161an\u00fd charakter. Rusko by najsk\u00f4r vyv\u00edjalo politick\u00fd tlak na Helsinki a z\u00e1rove\u0148 by spustilo s\u00e9riu kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatokov na k\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 in\u0161tit\u00facie.<\/p>\n Tak\u00fdto postup je typick\u00fd pre modern\u00e9 konflikty, kde sa vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00fa aj nevojensk\u00e9 n\u00e1stroje. Cie\u013eom by bolo oslabi\u0165 \u0161t\u00e1t zvn\u00fatra, vyvola\u0165 neistotu a pripravi\u0165 priestor pre \u010fal\u0161ie kroky.<\/p>\n Nap\u00e4tie by sa postupne zvy\u0161ovalo aj na hraniciach a v spolo\u010dnosti, pri\u010dom by r\u00e1stla aj nespokojnos\u0165 s vn\u00fatropolitickou situ\u00e1ciou.<\/p>\n P\u00e1d ruskej st\u00edha\u010dky<\/p>\n Zlomov\u00fdm bodom cel\u00e9ho scen\u00e1ra je incident, ktor\u00fd by mohol spusti\u0165 otvoren\u00fd konflikt. Pod\u013ea rozhovoru by i\u0161lo o stroskotanie rusk\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho lietadla na \u00fazem\u00ed F\u00ednska.<\/p>\n Tak\u00e1to udalos\u0165 by mohla by\u0165 interpretovan\u00e1 ako provok\u00e1cia alebo \u00fatok, \u010do by Rusko vyu\u017eilo ako d\u00f4vod na \u010fal\u0161ie kroky. Pr\u00e1ve tento moment by znamenal prechod od prechodnej f\u00e1zy k otvorenej vojenskej eskal\u00e1cii.<\/p>\n \u00datoky na infra\u0161trukt\u00faru a \u201e\u0161peci\u00e1lna oper\u00e1cia\u201c<\/p>\n Po incidente by pod\u013ea scen\u00e1ra nasledoval priamy \u00fatok na f\u00ednsku infra\u0161trukt\u00faru. Cie\u013eom by boli elektr\u00e1rne, doprava alebo komunika\u010dn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my. S\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou oper\u00e1cie by boli aj dronov\u00e9 \u00fatoky a sabot\u00e1\u017ene akcie, ktor\u00e9 by e\u0161te viac naru\u0161ili krajinu.<\/p>\n Rusko by tieto kroky mohlo ozna\u010di\u0165 ako \u201e\u0161peci\u00e1lnu vojensk\u00fa oper\u00e1ciu\u201c, podobne ako v pr\u00edpade Ukrajiny. Konflikt by sa v\u0161ak r\u00fdchlo roz\u0161\u00edril do plnohodnotnej vojny.<\/p>\n V reakcii na eskal\u00e1ciu by f\u00ednske \u00farady vyhl\u00e1sili v\u00fdnimo\u010dn\u00fd stav a krajina by pre\u0161la na vojnov\u00fa ekonomiku. To by znamenalo napr\u00edklad regul\u00e1ciu v\u00fdroby, presmerovanie zdrojov na obranu a dokonca aj zavedenie pr\u00eddelov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu pre obyvate\u013estvo.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/p>\n D\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa rolu zohr\u00e1va geopolitika<\/p>\n Scen\u00e1r po\u010d\u00edta aj so \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm geopolitick\u00fdm v\u00fdvojom. Predpoklad\u00e1 napr\u00edklad, \u017ee vojna na Ukrajine sa skon\u010d\u00ed pr\u00edmer\u00edm, ale nap\u00e4tie medzi Ruskom a Z\u00e1padom pretrv\u00e1.<\/p>\n Z\u00e1rove\u0148 by sa mohla preh\u013abi\u0165 spolupr\u00e1ca medzi Ruskom a \u010c\u00ednou, zatia\u013e \u010do Spojen\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1ty by postupne obmedzovali svoju pr\u00edtomnos\u0165 v Eur\u00f3pe.<\/p>\n V tomto prostred\u00ed by sa F\u00ednsko, ktor\u00e9 vst\u00fapilo do NATO v roku 2023, mohlo sta\u0165 jedn\u00fdm z hlavn\u00fdch zdrojov konfliktu.<\/p>\n \u00c5landsk\u00e9 ostrovy<\/p>\n Jedn\u00fdm z faktorov, ktor\u00fd by mohol konflikt e\u0161te viac vyeskalova\u0165, s\u00fa \u00c5landsk\u00e9 ostrovy. Pod\u013ea f\u00ednskeho ministerstva zahrani\u010dn\u00fdch vec\u00ed<\/a> ide o auton\u00f3mne a demilitarizovan\u00e9 \u00fazemie medzi F\u00ednskom a \u0160v\u00e9dskom, ktor\u00e9 m\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00fa strategick\u00fa polohu.<\/p>\n V roku 1856 sa na nich konala \u00c5landsk\u00e1 konvencia medzi Ve\u013ekou Brit\u00e1niou, Franc\u00fazskom a Ruskom, pod\u013ea ktorej mali ostrovy do bud\u00facnosti osta\u0165 demilitarizovan\u00e9 \u00a0Kontrola nad t\u00fdmto \u00fazem\u00edm by mohla by\u0165 predmetom sporov a \u010fal\u0161ieho tlaku zo strany Ruska, ktor\u00e9 tieto ostrovy v minulosti vlastnilo.<\/p>\n Varovanie pre cel\u00fa Eur\u00f3pu<\/p>\n Zverejnen\u00fd scen\u00e1r nie je len internou anal\u00fdzou jednej krajiny. V\u0161etk\u00fdm n\u00e1m ukazuje, ako by mohol vyzera\u0165 modern\u00fd konflikt v Eur\u00f3pe. Od za\u010diatku vyvinutia tlaku a\u017e po plnohodnotn\u00fa vojnu.<\/p>\n Aj ke\u010f ide len o modelov\u00fd pr\u00edklad, jasne nazna\u010duje, \u017ee pr\u00edpadn\u00fd konflikt by nemusel za\u010da\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00fdm \u00fatokom, ale jedn\u00fdm incidentom, ktor\u00fd spust\u00ed re\u0165azov\u00fa reakciu.<\/p>\n \n \u010c\u00edtaj viac z kateg\u00f3rie: Zo sveta<\/a>\n <\/p>\n \n \u010eakujeme, \u017ee \u010d\u00edta\u0161 Startitup. V pr\u00edpade, \u017ee m\u00e1\u0161 postreh alebo si na\u0161iel v \u010dl\u00e1nku chybu, nap\u00ed\u0161 n\u00e1m na redakcia@startitup.sk<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n Zdroje: ERR<\/a>, Umfi<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010cL\u00c1NOK POKRA\u010cUJE POD REKLAMOU F\u00ednsko zverejnilo doteraz utajovan\u00fd scen\u00e1r mo\u017en\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu s Ruskom a jeho obsah vyvol\u00e1va…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58173,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[1607,33,237,43,40,42,36,50,790,49,48],"class_list":{"0":"post-58172","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-svet","8":"tag-finsko","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-rusko","11":"tag-sk","12":"tag-slovak","13":"tag-slovencina","14":"tag-spravy","15":"tag-svet","16":"tag-vojna","17":"tag-world","18":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116497538442969079","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58172","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58172"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58172\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58173"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58172"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58172"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58172"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}