Vedci bij\u00fa na poplach: Atlantick\u00fd pr\u00fad sa m\u00f4\u017ee zr\u00fati\u0165 sk\u00f4r, ne\u017e sme \u010dakali. Eur\u00f3pu \u010dakaj\u00fa extr\u00e9my![\"vedci](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/4402976.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
Vedci varuj\u00fa, \u017ee jeho kolaps je pravdepodobnej\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e sa doteraz predpokladalo \u2013 a n\u00e1sledky by mohli by\u0165 dramatick\u00e9. Nejde pritom o \u017eiadnu teoretick\u00fa \u00favahu. Atlantick\u00e1 meridion\u00e1lna cirkul\u00e1cia, zn\u00e1ma ako AMOC, u\u017e dnes slabne a nach\u00e1dza sa na najslab\u0161ej \u00farovni za posledn\u00fdch pribli\u017ene 1 600 rokov. Tento syst\u00e9m funguje ako obrovsk\u00fd dopravn\u00fd p\u00e1s, ktor\u00fd pres\u00fava tepl\u00fa vodu z tr\u00f3pov smerom k Eur\u00f3pe a Arkt\u00edde. V\u010faka nemu m\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa miernej\u0161ie podnebie, ne\u017e by zodpovedalo jej zemepisnej \u0161\u00edrke. <\/p>\n
Nov\u00fd v\u00fdskum men\u00ed poh\u013ead vedcov<\/p>\n
Doteraj\u0161ie klimatick\u00e9 modely prin\u00e1\u0161ali ve\u013emi rozdielne scen\u00e1re. Niektor\u00e9 nazna\u010dovali len mierne spomalenie do konca storo\u010dia, in\u00e9 varovali pred dramatick\u00fdm oslaben\u00edm. Pr\u00e1ve t\u00e1to neistota bola jedn\u00fdm z hlavn\u00fdch probl\u00e9mov pri hodnoten\u00ed rizika. Najnov\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdskum v\u0161ak priniesol z\u00e1sadn\u00fd posun. Vedci kombinovali re\u00e1lne merania z oce\u00e1nov s klimatick\u00fdmi modelmi a identifikovali tie, ktor\u00e9 najlep\u0161ie zodpovedaj\u00fa skuto\u010dnosti. V\u00fdsledok? Ove\u013ea pochm\u00farnej\u0161\u00ed obraz, ne\u017e sa doteraz predpokladalo. Pod\u013ea aktualizovan\u00fdch odhadov by sa AMOC mohol do roku 2100 spomali\u0165 o 42 a\u017e 58 percent. Tak\u00e9to oslabenie je pod\u013ea odborn\u00edkov ve\u013emi bl\u00edzko bodu zlomu \u2013 momentu, po ktorom by u\u017e nebolo mo\u017en\u00e9 syst\u00e9m stabilizova\u0165. <\/p>\n
\u201eVe\u013emi znepokojuj\u00face\u201c sign\u00e1ly<\/p>\n
Vedci ne\u0161etria slovami. Nov\u00e9 zistenia ozna\u010duj\u00fa za \u201eve\u013emi znepokojuj\u00face\u201c. Pod\u013ea klimatol\u00f3ga Valentina Portmanna znamenaj\u00fa v\u00fdsledky jedin\u00e9 \u2013 syst\u00e9m sa nach\u00e1dza bli\u017e\u0161ie ku kolapsu, ne\u017e sme si mysleli. Podobne hovor\u00ed aj profesor Stefan Rahmstorf, ktor\u00fd AMOC sk\u00fama viac ako tri desa\u0165ro\u010dia. Pod\u013ea neho sa scen\u00e1re, ktor\u00e9 sa kedysi pova\u017eovali za pesimistick\u00e9, ukazuj\u00fa ako najrealistickej\u0161ie. E\u0161te znepokojivej\u0161ie je jeho varovanie, \u017ee bod zlomu m\u00f4\u017ee pr\u00eds\u0165 u\u017e v polovici tohto storo\u010dia. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee nejde o probl\u00e9m vzdialenej bud\u00facnosti, ale potenci\u00e1lne o udalos\u0165, ktor\u00e1 m\u00f4\u017ee ovplyvni\u0165 dne\u0161n\u00fa gener\u00e1ciu. <\/p>\n
\u010co by znamenal kolaps?<\/p>\n
Kolaps AMOC by nebol len jednou z mnoh\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch zmien. Pod\u013ea vedcov by i\u0161lo o udalos\u0165 s glob\u00e1lnymi d\u00f4sledkami. V Eur\u00f3pe by mohli pr\u00eds\u0165 extr\u00e9mne chladn\u00e9 zimy, ktor\u00e9 by kontrastovali s \u010doraz such\u0161\u00edmi letami. Po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo by \u010delilo nov\u00fdm v\u00fdzvam a energetick\u00e9 syst\u00e9my by boli pod tlakom. Z\u00e1sadn\u00e9 zmeny by zasiahli aj Afriku a Ju\u017en\u00fa Ameriku. Posun tropick\u00e9ho p\u00e1sma da\u017e\u010fov by ohrozil \u00farodu a dostupnos\u0165 vody pre mili\u00f3ny \u013eud\u00ed. Regi\u00f3ny z\u00e1visl\u00e9 od pravideln\u00fdch zr\u00e1\u017eok by mohli \u010deli\u0165 such\u00e1m, zatia\u013e \u010do inde by sa zv\u00fd\u0161ilo riziko povodn\u00ed. Okrem toho by do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu zv\u00fd\u0161eniu hladiny oce\u00e1nov v oblasti Atlantiku \u2013 o 50 a\u017e 100 centimetrov. Pre pobre\u017en\u00e9 mest\u00e1 by to znamenalo v\u00e1\u017ene riziko. <\/p>\n
Pre\u010do sa pr\u00fad spoma\u013euje<\/p>\n
Hlavnou pr\u00ed\u010dinou je glob\u00e1lne otep\u013eovanie. Arkt\u00edda sa otep\u013euje r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie ne\u017e zvy\u0161ok plan\u00e9ty, \u010do nar\u00fa\u0161a prirodzen\u00fd mechanizmus pr\u00fadenia. Za norm\u00e1lnych okolnost\u00ed sa tepl\u00e1 voda z tr\u00f3pov na severe ochlad\u00ed, stane sa hustej\u0161ou a klesne do hlb\u00edn oce\u00e1nu. Tento proces poh\u00e1\u0148a cel\u00fd syst\u00e9m. Probl\u00e9m je, \u017ee teplej\u0161ia voda m\u00e1 ni\u017e\u0161iu hustotu a kles\u00e1 pomal\u0161ie. Situ\u00e1ciu zhor\u0161uje aj topenie gr\u00f3nskeho \u013eadovca, ktor\u00e9 do oce\u00e1nu prin\u00e1\u0161a sladk\u00fa vodu. T\u00e1 zni\u017euje slanos\u0165 a t\u00fdm aj hustotu morskej vody. <\/p>\n
V\u00fdsledkom je spoma\u013eovanie cel\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a vznik nebezpe\u010dnej sp\u00e4tnej v\u00e4zby. \u010c\u00edm viac sa pr\u00fad spoma\u013euje, t\u00fdm viac sa proces e\u0161te prehlbuje. <\/p>\n
Neistota zost\u00e1va, riziko rastie<\/p>\n
Vedci upozor\u0148uj\u00fa, \u017ee AMOC je mimoriadne komplexn\u00fd syst\u00e9m, ktor\u00fd ovplyv\u0148uje mno\u017estvo faktorov. Presn\u00e9 na\u010dasovanie pr\u00edpadn\u00e9ho kolapsu preto nie je mo\u017en\u00e9 ur\u010di\u0165. To v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee riziko je mal\u00e9. Pr\u00e1ve naopak. Aj samotn\u00e9 v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 oslabenie pr\u00fadu m\u00f4\u017ee ma\u0165 v\u00e1\u017ene d\u00f4sledky u\u017e v nasleduj\u00facich desa\u0165ro\u010diach. Nov\u00e1 \u0161t\u00fadia, publikovan\u00e1 v prest\u00ed\u017enom vedeckom \u010dasopise Science Advances, navy\u0161e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee realita m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 e\u0161te hor\u0161ia. Niektor\u00e9 modely toti\u017e nezoh\u013ead\u0148uj\u00fa v\u0161etky faktory, napr\u00edklad \u010fal\u0161ie topenie \u013eadovcov. <\/p>\n
Varovanie, ktor\u00e9 nemo\u017eno ignorova\u0165<\/p>\n
E\u0161te pred p\u00e1r rokmi sa pravdepodobnos\u0165 kolapsu AMOC odhadovala na pribli\u017ene p\u00e4\u0165 percent. Dnes vedci hovoria o v\u00fdrazne vy\u0161\u0161om riziku \u2013 pod\u013ea niektor\u00fdch odhadov m\u00f4\u017ee presiahnu\u0165 50 percent. <\/p>\n
Tak\u00e9to \u010d\u00edsla menia sp\u00f4sob, ak\u00fdm sa na probl\u00e9m pozer\u00e1me. U\u017e nejde len o hypotetick\u00fd scen\u00e1r, ale o re\u00e1lnu hrozbu, ktor\u00fa treba bra\u0165 v\u00e1\u017ene. Vedci sa zhoduj\u00fa, \u017ee najd\u00f4le\u017eitej\u0161\u00edm krokom je zni\u017eovanie emisi\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fdch plynov. Ka\u017ed\u00e9 spomalenie otep\u013eovania m\u00f4\u017ee pom\u00f4c\u0165 oddiali\u0165 alebo zmierni\u0165 najhor\u0161ie d\u00f4sledky. Atlantick\u00fd pr\u00fad bol tis\u00edce rokov stabilnou s\u00fa\u010das\u0165ou klimatick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu Zeme. Dnes v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed na hrane zmeny, ktor\u00e1 by mohla prep\u00edsa\u0165 mapu po\u010dasia na celej plan\u00e9te. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"V okol\u00ed jazera Kuchajda v Bratislave pribudne nov\u00e1 be\u017eeck\u00e1 dr\u00e1ha. Ako informuje mestsk\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 Nov\u00e9 Mesto na soci\u00e1lnej…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60568,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[1163,1169,136,66,635,1165,23865,142,43,40,39,42,41,1167,343,36,1164,1166,1168],"class_list":{"0":"post-60567","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bratislava","8":"tag-aktualne-spravy","9":"tag-auto-moto","10":"tag-bratislava","11":"tag-ekonomika","12":"tag-financie","13":"tag-najnovsie-spravy","14":"tag-okolie-jazera-kuchajda","15":"tag-politika","16":"tag-sk","17":"tag-slovak","18":"tag-slovakia","19":"tag-slovencina","20":"tag-slovensko","21":"tag-soubiznis","22":"tag-spravodajstvo","23":"tag-spravy","24":"tag-spravy-dnes","25":"tag-spravy-zo-sveta","26":"tag-technika"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116514698276984384","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60567","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60567"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60567\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60567"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60567"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60567"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}