{"id":6516,"date":"2026-02-27T20:50:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-27T20:50:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/6516\/"},"modified":"2026-02-27T20:50:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T20:50:29","slug":"do-roku-2050-poklesne-osobna-aj-zeleznicna-doprava-vynimku-budu-tvorit-satelitne-oblasti-v-okoli-bratislavy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/6516\/","title":{"rendered":"Do roku 2050 poklesne osobn\u00e1 aj \u017eelezni\u010dn\u00e1 doprava. V\u00fdnimku bud\u00fa tvori\u0165 satelitn\u00e9 oblasti v okol\u00ed Bratislavy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t\tProgn\u00f3zy vych\u00e1dzaj\u00fa z\u00a0analytick\u00e9ho modelu dopravnej progn\u00f3zy. K\u00fdm osobn\u00fa a\u00a0\u017eelezni\u010dn\u00fa dopravu \u010dak\u00e1 pokles, v\u00a0n\u00e1kladnej sa o\u010dak\u00e1va v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed rast \u2013 na cest\u00e1ch i\u00a0ko\u013eajniciach. Napriek \u00fabytku popul\u00e1cie st\u00fapne po\u010det \u00e1ut na obyvate\u013eov o\u00a0vy\u0161e tretinu.
\n\"\"Ilustra\u010dn\u00fd obr\u00e1zok (zdroj: ZSSK)<\/p>\n

\u201ePre vyhodnotenie n\u00e1vratnosti projektov a dlhodob\u00e9 pl\u00e1novanie invest\u00edci\u00ed v doprave je potrebn\u00e9 \u010do najpresnej\u0161ie odhadn\u00fa\u0165 dopyt po dopravnej infra\u0161trukt\u00fare,\u201c hovor\u00ed \u00datvar hodnoty za peniaze.<\/p>\n

Dopravy ubudne takmer na celom Slovensku<\/p>\n

Model predpoklad\u00e1 pokles osobnej dopravy na cest\u00e1ch o\u00a06 percent a\u00a0na \u017eeleznici o\u00a013 percent. \u201ePokles dopravy sa bude t\u00fdka\u0165 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161iny \u00fazemia SR, okrem regi\u00f3nov na severe Slovenska (napr. Orava, Tatry, \u0160ari\u0161) a satelitn\u00fdch oblast\u00ed v okol\u00ed Bratislavy,\u201c spres\u0148uj\u00fa analytici.<\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea \u00daHP tieto zmeny s\u00favisia s\u00a0v\u00fdvojom demografickej krivky Slovenska, ktor\u00e1 postupne starne. Porovnanie modelu osobnej dopravy v\u00a0s\u00fa\u010dasnosti a\u00a0v\u00a0roku 2050 zah\u0155\u0148a aj ve\u013ek\u00e9 stavebn\u00e9 projekty najm\u00e4 na strednom a\u00a0v\u00fdchodnom Slovensku. Invest\u00edcie s\u00fa ale v\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch rokoch pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 aj na z\u00e1pade.<\/p>\n

\u00dabytok popul\u00e1cie sa do roku 2050 pod\u013ea demografickej progn\u00f3zy o\u010dak\u00e1va na \u00farovni \u0161tyroch percent. Aj napriek tejto skuto\u010dnosti po\u010det \u00e1ut na obyvate\u013eov st\u00fapne o\u00a0vy\u0161e tretinu.<\/p>\n

\u201ePo\u010det \u013eud\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00facich auto narastie o pribli\u017ene 16 percent. D\u00f4vodom odli\u0161n\u00e9ho rastu je v\u0161eobecn\u00fd pokles popul\u00e1cie, ako aj zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fd po\u010det automobilov v dom\u00e1cnosti, resp. vlastn\u00edkov viacer\u00fdch automobilov,\u201c kon\u0161tatuje \u00datvar hodnoty za peniaze.<\/p>\n

\u00dadaje s\u00favisia aj s \u010fal\u0161\u00edm d\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fdm faktorom, ktor\u00fd je ekonomick\u00fd faktor. Po\u010det ekonomicky akt\u00edvnych \u013eud\u00ed klesne o tri percent\u00e1, naopak neakt\u00edvnych s autom st\u00fapne a\u017e o 74 percent.<\/p>\n

\"\"Objem osobnej \u017eelezni\u010dnej dopravy v roku 2023 (zdroj: \u00daHP)
\nN\u00e1kladn\u00fa dopravu \u010dak\u00e1 rozmach<\/p>\n

K\u00fdm osobn\u00e1 automobilov\u00e1 a\u00a0\u017eelezni\u010dn\u00e1 doprava do roku 2050 poklesne, s\u00a0v\u00fdnimkou satelitn\u00fdch oblast\u00ed ve\u013ek\u00fdch miest, n\u00e1kladn\u00e1 v\u00fdraznej\u0161ie narastie.<\/p>\n

\u201eZ historick\u00fdch d\u00e1t a elastick\u00e9ho modelu zalo\u017eenom na raste HDP Slovenska sa do roku 2050 o\u010dak\u00e1va n\u00e1rast po\u010dtu n\u00e1kladn\u00fdch vozidiel na cest\u00e1ch o 74 percent a n\u00e1rast po\u010dtu n\u00e1kladn\u00fdch vlakov o 45 percent vo\u010di roku 2023,\u201c hovor\u00ed \u00daHP.<\/p>\n

Analytick\u00fd model dopravnej progn\u00f3zy je n\u00e1stupcom N\u00e1rodn\u00e9ho dopravn\u00e9ho modelu z\u00a0roku 2015, ktor\u00fd vyu\u017e\u00edval neaktu\u00e1lne d\u00e1ta. \u201eZ\u00e1ujmov\u00e9 \u00fazemie je v modeli rozdelen\u00e9 na 236 z\u00f3n. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 z\u00f3na je definovan\u00e1 demografick\u00fdmi a socio-ekonomick\u00fdmi \u00fadajmi,\u201c pokra\u010duj\u00fa v\u00a0spr\u00e1ve analytici.<\/p>\n

Pokles osobnej dopravy v progn\u00f3zach modelu do roku 2050, o ktorom hovor\u00ed \u00datvar hodnoty za peniaze, s\u00favis\u00ed najm\u00e4 so starnut\u00edm popul\u00e1cie a ni\u017e\u0161ou mierou cestovania v star\u0161ej vekovej skupine obyvate\u013estva.<\/p>\n

\"\"Objem cestnej dopravy v roku 2023 (zdroj: \u00daHP)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Progn\u00f3zy vych\u00e1dzaj\u00fa z\u00a0analytick\u00e9ho modelu dopravnej progn\u00f3zy. K\u00fdm osobn\u00fa a\u00a0\u017eelezni\u010dn\u00fa dopravu \u010dak\u00e1 pokles, v\u00a0n\u00e1kladnej sa o\u010dak\u00e1va v\u00fdraznej\u0161\u00ed rast \u2013…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6517,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[3788,136,3789,43,40,39,42,41,3790,3791],"class_list":{"0":"post-6516","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bratislava","8":"tag-analyza","9":"tag-bratislava","10":"tag-osobna-doprava","11":"tag-sk","12":"tag-slovak","13":"tag-slovakia","14":"tag-slovencina","15":"tag-slovensko","16":"tag-uhp","17":"tag-zeleznicna-doprava"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6516","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6516"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6516\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6517"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6516"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6516"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6516"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}