{"id":71627,"date":"2026-05-16T15:58:07","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T15:58:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/71627\/"},"modified":"2026-05-16T15:58:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T15:58:07","slug":"leto-2026-moze-odstartovat-velky-klimaticky-zlom-el-nino-udrie-v-plnej-sile-varovanie-aj-pre-slovensko-domace-spravy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/71627\/","title":{"rendered":"Leto 2026 m\u00f4\u017ee od\u0161tartova\u0165 ve\u013ek\u00fd klimatick\u00fd zlom. El Ni\u00f1o udrie v plnej sile: Varovanie aj pre Slovensko – Dom\u00e1ce – Spr\u00e1vy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Leto 2026 m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v Eur\u00f3pe hor\u00face, such\u0161ie a pln\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvov. Nad tropick\u00fdm Pacifikom sa r\u00fdchlo formuje siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o, ktor\u00e9 dok\u00e1\u017ee rozh\u00fdba\u0165 po\u010dasie na celej plan\u00e9te. Modely nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee aj stredn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa vr\u00e1tane Slovenska m\u00f4\u017ee \u010deli\u0165 nadpriemern\u00fdm teplot\u00e1m, men\u0161iemu mno\u017estvu zr\u00e1\u017eok a vy\u0161\u0161iemu riziku sucha.<\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea anal\u00fdz, o\u00a0ktor\u00fdch informovali BBC a port\u00e1l Severe Weather Europe, sa v\u00a0tropickom Pacifiku r\u00fdchlo rozv\u00edja El Ni\u00f1o. V\u00a0druhej polovici roka 2026\u00a0by mohlo zosilnie\u0165 a\u017e na \u00farove\u0148 takzvan\u00e9ho super El Ni\u00f1o. Aj ke\u010f, ako pre Pravdu uviedol klimatol\u00f3g Pavel Matejovi\u010d, ni\u010d tak\u00e9 ako Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> v\u00a0klimatol\u00f3gii neexistuje. \u010co teda hovoria modely a \u010do m\u00f4\u017eeme\u00a0\u010daka\u0165?<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\tPo\u010dasie na v\u00edkend: Da\u017ediv\u00e9… kone\u010dne \t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t Video \t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tDa\u017ediv\u00e9 po\u010dasie aspo\u0148 \u010diasto\u010dne zmierni deficit vlahy na Slovensku. \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Prechod do leta 2026\u00a0sprev\u00e1dzaj\u00fa r\u00fdchle zmeny v\u00a0oce\u00e1ne aj atmosf\u00e9re. Tropick\u00fd Pacifik sa otep\u013euje viac, ne\u017e sa p\u00f4vodne \u010dakalo. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o m\u00f4\u017ee v\u00a0najbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch mesiacoch \u010falej silnie\u0165.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o je prirodzen\u00fd klimatick\u00fd jav. Vznik\u00e1 vtedy, ke\u010f sa rovn\u00edkov\u00e1 \u010das\u0165 Tich\u00e9ho oce\u00e1nu otepl\u00ed nad dlhodob\u00fd priemer. Strieda sa so studenou f\u00e1zou La Ni\u00f1a, ktor\u00e1 v\u00a0posledn\u00fdch rokoch ovplyv\u0148ovala po\u010dasie vo\u00a0svete.<\/p>\n

Pod\u013ea meteorol\u00f3gov La Ni\u00f1a ustupuje a Pacifik prech\u00e1dza do teplej f\u00e1zy. Ak teplotn\u00e1 odch\u00fdlka v\u00a0hlavnej sledovanej oblasti prekro\u010d\u00ed 1,5\u00a0stup\u0148a Celzia, ide o\u00a0siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o. Pri hodnot\u00e1ch okolo dvoch stup\u0148ov m\u00f4\u017ee \u00eds\u0165 o\u00a0ve\u013emi siln\u00fa udalos\u0165.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj podporuje aj oce\u00e1nska Kelvinova vlna, teda p\u00e1s teplej vody pod hladinou Pacifiku. Ke\u010f sa dostane k\u00a0povrchu, m\u00f4\u017ee El Ni\u00f1o e\u0161te posilni\u0165.<\/p>\n

Modely americkej NOAA, eur\u00f3pskeho centra ECMWF aj austr\u00e1lskeho \u00faradu BoM sa zhoduj\u00fa, \u017ee El Ni\u00f1o sa rozv\u00edja r\u00fdchlo. V\u00a0druhej polovici roka m\u00f4\u017ee dosiahnu\u0165 ve\u013emi siln\u00fa intenzitu.<\/p>\n

Podobne siln\u00e9 udalosti sa v\u00a0minulosti sp\u00e1jali s\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvmi po\u010dasia. El Ni\u00f1o z\u00a0rokov 2015\u00a0a\u017e 2016\u00a0patrilo medzi najsilnej\u0161ie v\u00a0\u00e9re modern\u00fdch meran\u00ed. Historick\u00e9 z\u00e1znamy spom\u00ednaj\u00fa aj extr\u00e9mnu udalos\u0165 z\u00a0rokov 1877\u00a0a\u017e 1878, ktor\u00e1 prispela k\u00a0suchu, hladomorom a rozsiahlym \u0161kod\u00e1m v\u00a0\u00c1zii, Afrike \u010di Ju\u017enej Amerike.<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t\t\t\"Super \t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u010c\u00edtajte viac \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\u010cak\u00e1 n\u00e1s najteplej\u0161\u00ed rok? Odborn\u00edk vysvet\u013euje dianie v oce\u00e1noch aj m\u00fdtus o Super El Ni\u00f1o \t\t\t\t \t\t\t \t\t\t<\/a>
\nVplyv sa m\u00f4\u017ee prejavi\u0165 u\u017e po\u010das leta<\/p>\n

Hoci El Ni\u00f1o zvy\u010dajne vrchol\u00ed na jese\u0148 alebo v\u00a0zime, jeho vplyv sa m\u00f4\u017ee prejavi\u0165 u\u017e v\u00a0lete.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0Severnej Amerike m\u00f4\u017ee prinies\u0165 miernej\u0161ie teploty na severe, v\u00a0strede a na v\u00fdchode USA. Naopak, z\u00e1pad, juh a juhov\u00fdchod krajiny m\u00f4\u017eu by\u0165 teplej\u0161ie ne\u017e zvy\u010dajne. V\u00a0niektor\u00fdch centr\u00e1lnych a v\u00fdchodn\u00fdch oblastiach USA sa o\u010dak\u00e1va aj viac zr\u00e1\u017eok.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o ovplyv\u0148uje aj hurik\u00e1nov\u00fa sez\u00f3nu v\u00a0Atlantiku. Zvy\u0161uje strih vetra, \u010do s\u0165a\u017euje vznik a zosil\u0148ovanie hurik\u00e1nov. Sez\u00f3na tak m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 pokojnej\u0161ia ne\u017e zvy\u010dajne.<\/p>\n

Pre Stredn\u00fa Ameriku to v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed by\u0165 dobr\u00e1 spr\u00e1va. Menej tropick\u00fdch syst\u00e9mov m\u00f4\u017ee znamena\u0165 aj menej da\u017e\u010fa a vy\u0161\u0161ie riziko\u00a0sucha.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\tAko men\u00ed po\u010dasie dejiny? A ak\u00e1 je dnes spo\u013eahlivos\u0165 predpoved\u00ed? \t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t Video \t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tZ \u010doho dnes vych\u00e1dzaj\u00fa predpovede po\u010dasia a ako ich ovplyv\u0148uj\u00fa technol\u00f3gie? Ak\u00e1 je pravdepodobnos\u0165 presnosti predpovede na 3, 7 a 14 dn\u00ed? Uvid\u00edme v bud\u00facnosti klimatick\u00e9 javy, ktor\u00e9 tu e\u0161te neboli? V rel\u00e1cii Pravda o kl\u00edme odpoved\u00e1 Michal Weis, \u0161\u00e9f spolo\u010dnosti IBL Software Engineering. \t\t\t\t\/\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tZdroj: TV Pravda \t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Eur\u00f3pe hroz\u00ed teplej\u0161ie leto, stred kontinentu m\u00f4\u017ee \u010deli\u0165\u00a0suchu<\/p>\n

Pre Eur\u00f3pu s\u00fa predpovede zlo\u017eitej\u0161ie, no viacero modelov sa zhoduje na tom, \u017ee leto 2026\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 na ve\u013ekej \u010dasti kontinentu teplej\u0161ie ne\u017e obvykle. Najv\u00fdraznej\u0161ie kladn\u00e9 teplotn\u00e9 odch\u00fdlky sa pod\u013ea ECMWF o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa od juhu cez stredn\u00fa Eur\u00f3pu a\u017e po severn\u00e9 oblasti kontinentu.<\/p>\n

D\u00f4le\u017eit\u00fa \u00falohu m\u00e1 zohr\u00e1va\u0165 tlakov\u00e1 n\u00ed\u017e z\u00e1padne od Eur\u00f3py, ktor\u00e1 m\u00f4\u017ee podpori\u0165 pr\u00fadenie teplej\u0161ieho vzduchu od juhu a\u017e juhoz\u00e1padu. Model UKMO britsk\u00e9ho Met Office podobne nazna\u010duje, \u017ee n\u00edzky tlak v\u00a0severnom Atlantiku m\u00f4\u017ee posilni\u0165 ju\u017en\u00e9 pr\u00fadenie smerom do Eur\u00f3py, \u010d\u00edm sa zv\u00fd\u0161i riziko nadpriemern\u00fdch tepl\u00f4t.<\/p>\n

Zr\u00e1\u017ekov\u00e9 v\u00fdh\u013eady v\u0161ak nie s\u00fa pre v\u0161etky regi\u00f3ny rovnak\u00e9. ECMWF nazna\u010duje viac zr\u00e1\u017eok v\u00a0ju\u017enej, juhov\u00fdchodnej a v\u00fdchodnej Eur\u00f3pe, miestami aj na severe kontinentu. Naopak, severoz\u00e1padn\u00e1 a stredn\u00e1 Eur\u00f3pa m\u00f4\u017eu ma\u0165 po\u010das leta menej zr\u00e1\u017eok ne\u017e obvykle.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0kombin\u00e1cii s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi teplotami by to mohlo znamena\u0165 rast\u00face riziko sucha pr\u00e1ve v\u00a0strednej Eur\u00f3pe. Tento v\u00fdvoj by mohol zasiahnu\u0165 aj po\u013enohospod\u00e1rstvo, vodn\u00e9 zdroje a energetiku, najm\u00e4 ak by sa such\u0161ie po\u010dasie spojilo s\u00a0dlh\u0161\u00edmi vlnami hor\u00fa\u010dav.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\tM\u00e1me u\u017e stav klimatickej n\u00fadze? Kedy na rovn\u00edku nebude voda a nastane mas\u00edvna klimatick\u00e1 migr\u00e1cia? \t\t\t<\/p>\n

\t \t\t\t Video \t<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\tKedy sa strat\u00ed z rovn\u00edka voda a t\u00fdm aj mo\u017enos\u0165 dopestova\u0165 v jeho okol\u00ed potraviny? Bude re\u00e1lne dosiahnu\u0165 uhl\u00edkov\u00fa neutralitu do roku 2050? Je tu \u010fal\u0161\u00ed diel rel\u00e1cie Pravda o kl\u00edme, odpoved\u00e1 Jakub Hrb\u00e1\u0148 z iniciat\u00edvy Kl\u00edma \u0165a potrebuje. \t\t\t\t\/\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tZdroj: TV Pravda \t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Glob\u00e1lne teploty m\u00f4\u017eu op\u00e4\u0165 r\u00e1s\u0165<\/p>\n

Siln\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o zvy\u010dajne zvy\u0161uje priemern\u00fa glob\u00e1lnu teplotu. Teplej\u0161\u00ed Pacifik toti\u017e odovzd\u00e1va atmosf\u00e9re viac energie. V\u00a0\u010dase klimatickej zmeny to m\u00f4\u017ee prispie\u0165 k\u00a0nov\u00fdm teplotn\u00fdm rekordom.<\/p>\n

Odborn\u00edci upozor\u0148uj\u00fa, \u017ee ak bude s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00e9 El Ni\u00f1o ve\u013emi siln\u00e9, rok 2027\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee patri\u0165 medzi najteplej\u0161ie roky v\u00a0hist\u00f3rii meran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dopady sa v\u0161ak bud\u00fa l\u00ed\u0161i\u0165 pod\u013ea regi\u00f3nov. Niekde m\u00f4\u017ee El Ni\u00f1o prinies\u0165 siln\u00e9 da\u017ede a z\u00e1plavy, inde sucho a po\u017eiare. Najviac ohrozen\u00e9 s\u00fa oblasti okolo Pacifiku, no n\u00e1sledky sa m\u00f4\u017eu prejavi\u0165 aj v\u00a0Afrike, \u00c1zii, Eur\u00f3pe a Amerike.<\/p>\n

Sucho alebo z\u00e1plavy m\u00f4\u017eu zn\u00ed\u017ei\u0165 \u00farodu a zv\u00fd\u0161i\u0165 ceny potrav\u00edn. Najviac by to zasiahlo chudobnej\u0161ie krajiny.<\/p>\n

Predpove\u010f je v\u00fdrazn\u00e1, no nie definit\u00edvna<\/p>\n

Sez\u00f3nne progn\u00f3zy maj\u00fa v\u017edy ur\u010dit\u00fa mieru neistoty. Napriek tomu je s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd sign\u00e1l siln\u00fd: zmeny sa neprejavuj\u00fa iba na hladine oce\u00e1nu, ale aj v\u00a0jeho podpovrchov\u00fdch vrstv\u00e1ch a v\u00a0atmosf\u00e9re.<\/p>\n

K\u013e\u00fa\u010dov\u00e9 bude, ako r\u00fdchlo sa tepl\u00e1 voda dostane na povrch a ako silno na \u0148u zareaguje glob\u00e1lna cirkul\u00e1cia. Ak sa s\u00fa\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj potvrd\u00ed, leto 2026\u00a0m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 za\u010diatkom v\u00fdraznej klimatickej epiz\u00f3dy, ktor\u00e1 ovplyvn\u00ed po\u010dasie aj v\u00a0nasleduj\u00facom\u00a0roku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Leto 2026 m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 v Eur\u00f3pe hor\u00face, such\u0161ie a pln\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvov. Nad tropick\u00fdm Pacifikom sa r\u00fdchlo formuje siln\u00e9…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":71628,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[1743,20803,57,56,55,5281,2793,27188,43,40,42,4393],"class_list":["post-71627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-europa","tag-1743","tag-el-nino","tag-eu","tag-europa","tag-europe","tag-leto","tag-moze","tag-odstartovat","tag-sk","tag-slovak","tag-slovencina","tag-velky"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@sk\/116585084098414281","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/sk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}