Fitch Ratings has affirmed Repsol, S.A.’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘BBB+’.

The Outlook is Stable.

Fitch has also affirmed Repsol’s Short-Term IDR at ‘F1’.

Repsol’s rating is underpinned by very low EBITDA net leverage, which we expect to remain below 1.0x during 2026-2030. We also expect continued strong operational execution in its core oil and gas businesses, in tandem with sustained investment in low-carbon businesses. We anticipate general prudent financial management with a flexible approach to net capex and shareholder distributions.

Repsol’s Short-Term IDR of ‘F1’ reflects the higher of two short-term options mapping to the ‘BBB+’ Long-Term IDR, reflecting our assessment of the company’s financial flexibility, financial structure and operating environment.

Key Rating Drivers

Very Low Leverage: At end-2025, Repsol’s Fitch-adjusted EBITDA net leverage was 0.8x, broadly in line with 0.6x in 2024. The company’s EBITDA net leverage is aided by very high Fitch-defined readily available cash balance of about EUR7.7 billion at end-2025 and prudently managed debt. We expect EBITDA net leverage to remain well below 1x to 2030, despite our conservative oil and gas price assumptions, and substantial capex and shareholder distributions.

Capex Flexibility: Repsol is nearing the end of a multi-year higher capex cycle, during which it upgraded its upstream assets, modernised its downstream operations and progressed with the development of its low-carbon generation segment. We expect the company to operate with lower gross capex of about EUR3 billion a year, while continuing to proactively manage its capex when market conditions are weak.

Flexible Shareholder Distributions: Repsol’s financial policy states that 30%-40% of company-defined cash flow from operations will be distributed to shareholders, depending on market conditions. This range is an increase from the prior 25%-35%, but according to management, this reflects the company’s new reporting model whereby company-defined cash flow will now be reported on an IFRS consolidation basis rather than on a proportional consolidation basis and the actual amount of distributions will not meaningfully increase.

Total Shareholder Distributions Manageable: We assume that dividends will increase 3%-4% a year. Share repurchases will make up the rest of total distributions and will depend on market conditions. The company paid EUR1.1 billion in dividends out of total distributions of EUR1.8 billion in 2025. It also aims for a dividend of EUR1.051/share and has launched a EUR350 million share buyback programme for 2026, although we expect total distributions to be lower than company guidance under our more conservative rating case.

Strong Upstream Results: Repsol’s upstream segment performance remains robust, supported by strong oil and gas price environment, and increasing production from cash-generative US shale assets. We expect the upstream segment to remain highly cash-generative even under our assumption of moderating prices, given the asset base’s low break-even at below USD50/bbl for Brent and average production, including joint ventures (JVs) and affiliates, of 580-600 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) to 2028.

Potential Upstream Segment Liquidity Event: Repsol is considering a listing for its upstream operations, held by Repsol E&P S.a.r.l. (BBB+/Stable), which may take place as early as 2026. The timing and form of the potential listing is unclear, but according to management, Repsol will maintain effective control over Repsol E&P, which is the single largest contributor to group-level EBITDA and is highly important to Repsol’s strategy. We do not model any liquidity event into our rating case.

Positive Developments in Venezuela: Trade policy developments have meant that Repsol was unable to lift cargoes at its Venezuela operations for most of 2025 despite net production of about 71kboe/d. Repsol’s license to resume its operations in the country has been reinstated, which should allow cash flow from Venezuela to start being realised, and Repsol’s management has identified significant growth potential in Venezuelan operations, should the regulatory environment remain constructive.

Significant Receivables in Venezuela: As of end-2025, Repsol E&P had EUR4.6 billion outstanding from receivables and financing arrangements to PDVSA against which the former had recognised EUR3.6 billion of provisions. We do not assume a resumption of cash flow contributions or improved recovery on amounts outstanding with PDVSA in our rating case but view these as an upside to our forecast.

Mixed Downstream Performance: Refining margins were strong in 2025 at USD7.9/bbl and we project margins at USD8.5/bbl in 2026 on the back of a disruption in refined product imports into Europe due to the Iran war and other geopolitical factors. We expect margins to normalise to about USD6/bbl from 2027 as we expect the market dislocation to be temporary. European chemicals margins continue to be severely affected by structurally higher domestic feedstock costs alongside global oversupply, with uncertain recovery prospects. We expect a modest improvement in chemicals margins to 2030.

Focus on Energy Transition: Repsol plans to allocate over 30% of its capex through 2028 to low-carbon projects. Its decarbonisation strategy is embedded in all its key operating segments. In upstream, Repsol aims to focus on low-capital-intensity projects with short payback periods and low emission intensity. In industrial, Repsol is investing in low-carbon fuels, chemicals circularity and biogas generation. Repsol’s commercial business is offering multi-energy solutions to customers and growing its charging network. We project gross renewable capacity to reach 9GW by 2028 and 15GW-20GW by 2030.

Peer Analysis

Repsol compares well with EMEA peers such as OMV AG (A-/Stable) and Eni SpA (A-/Stable). Repsol benefits from a larger scale and has more diversified operations than OMV with an upstream output of 548 kboe/d (including 195 kboe/d from JVs in 2025) and a refining capacity of 1,013 kbbl/d versus OMV’s 305kboe/d and 369kbbl/d (excluding the stake in the Ruwais refinery in the UAE).

Repsol has smaller scale than Eni SpA, but both benefit from low production costs per barrel and strong organic reserve replacement ratios. Repsol benefits from a better geographic diversification, while Eni has large concentration of its upstream operations in Africa (about 60% of consolidated 2025 production).

Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions

Oil and gas price assumptions in line with Fitch’s base case price deck

Consolidated upstream production, excluding JVs and affiliates, increasing to about 400kboe/d through 2030

Shareholder distributions in line with management’s stated targets

Capex averaging EUR3 billion a year to 2030

Dividends paid to EIG by the upstream business averaging about EUR155 million a year to 2030 under Fitch’s calculations

Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores

Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using our Corporate Rating Tool (CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):

Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative importance): Management (bbb, Lower), Sector Characteristics (a-, Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bbb, Higher), Diversification and Asset Quality (bbb+, Moderate), Company Operational Characteristics (bbb-, Moderate), Profitability (bbb+, Moderate), Financial Structure (a-, Higher), and Financial Flexibility (a, Moderate).

The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT financial period parameters: 10% weight for the historical year 2025, 10% for the forecast year 2026, 30% for the forecast year 2027, 30% for the forecast year 2028 and 20% for the forecast year 2029.

The Governance assessment of ‘Good’ results in no adjustment.

The Operating Environment assessment of ‘a’ results in no adjustment.

The SCP is ‘bbb+’.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

Aggressive financial policy and/or investments in operations, weakening the business risk profile

Change in business strategy that would reduce cash flow visibility and add to business risk

Change in financial profile to prioritise shareholder returns and EBITDA net leverage consistently above 2.0x

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

Consistent implementation of business strategy, coupled with investment of asset disposal proceeds in new low-carbon businesses and commitment to a conservative financial policy

Increase in the share of cash flow from low-emission operations

Further diversification of the business profile across segments and geographies while maintaining low leverage

EBITDA net leverage below 1.5x on a sustained basis

Liquidity and Debt Structure

At end-2025 Repsol had reported cash and equivalents of about EUR3.3 billion and Fitch-defined readily marketable securities of EUR4.4 billion, comprising EUR2.9 billion of time deposits and EUR1.5 billion of investments in highly liquid money market funds. This yields total Fitch-defined readily available cash and marketable securities of EUR7.7 billion, which fully covers near-term Fitch-adjusted debt maturities of EUR1.5 billion (excluding leases, but including certain derivatives-related liabilities).

The company further maintained about EUR2.7 billion of undrawn credit lines at end-2025, which we do not include in our analysis given the absence of disclosure around the maturity of said amounts.

Issuer Profile

Repsol is a medium-sized integrated oil and gas company headquartered in Spain.

Summary of Financial Adjustments

Depreciation and interest expense associated with lease assets reclassified as operating expense, while lease liabilities are excluded from debt

EBITDA adjusted for non-cash items such as impairments, gains and losses on disposals, and revaluation gains and losses on trade derivatives

Debt adjusted to include all hybrid debt with a 50% equity credit

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS

Click here to access Fitch’s latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor data file which aggregates key data points used in our credit analysis. Fitch’s macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included.

Climate Vulnerability Signals

The results of our Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated risk for Repsol.

ESG Considerations

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of ‘3’, unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of ‘3’ means ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch’s ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch’s ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.

RATING ACTIONS

Entity / Debt

Rating

Prior

Repsol Europe Finance

senior unsecured

LT

BBB+

Affirmed

BBB+

subordinated

LT

BBB-

Affirmed

BBB-

senior unsecured

ST

F1

Affirmed

F1

Repsol, S.A.

LT IDR

BBB+

Affirmed

BBB+

ST IDR

F1

Affirmed

F1

senior unsecured

LT

BBB+

Affirmed

BBB+

Repsol International Finance B.V.

senior unsecured

LT

BBB+

Affirmed

BBB+

subordinated

LT

BBB-

Affirmed

BBB-

Page

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VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

PARTICIPATION STATUS

The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer’s available public disclosure.

APPLICABLE CRITERIA

Corporates Recovery Ratings and Instrument Ratings Criteria (pub. 03 Aug 2024) (including rating assumption sensitivity)

Corporate Hybrids Treatment and Notching Criteria (pub. 08 Apr 2025)

Parent and Subsidiary Linkage Rating Criteria (pub. 28 Jun 2025)

Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 10 Jan 2026) (including rating assumption sensitivity)

Sector Navigators – Addendum to the Corporate Rating Criteria (pub. 10 Jan 2026)

APPLICABLE MODELS

Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).

Corporate Monitoring & Forecasting Model (COMFORT Model), v8.2.0 (1)

ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES

Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form

Solicitation Status

Endorsement Policy

ENDORSEMENT STATUS

Repsol Europe Finance EU Issued, UK EndorsedRepsol International Finance B.V. EU Issued, UK EndorsedRepsol, S.A. EU Issued, UK Endorsed

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

All Fitch Ratings (Fitch) credit ratings are subject to certain limitations and disclaimers. Please read these limitations and disclaimers by following this link: https://www.fitchratings.com/understandingcreditratings. In addition, the following https://www.fitchratings.com/rating-definitions-document details Fitch’s rating definitions for each rating s

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Solicitation Status

The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained by Fitch at the request of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. Any exceptions follow below.

Fitch’s solicitation status policy can be found at www.fitchratings.com/ethics.

Endorsement Policy

Fitch’s international credit ratings produced outside the EU or the UK, as the case may be, are endorsed for use by regulated entities within the EU or the UK, respectively, for regulatory purposes, pursuant to the terms of the EU CRA Regulation or the UK Credit Rating Agencies (Amendment etc.) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019, as the case may be. Fitch’s approach to endorsement in the EU and the UK can be found on Fitch’s Regulatory Affairs page on Fitch’s website. The endorsement status of international credit ratings is provided within the entity summary page for each rated entity and in the transaction detail pages for structured finance transactions on the Fitch website. These disclosures are updated on a daily basis.