Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BME:BBVA) has drawn fresh attention after reporting first quarter 2026 net income of €2,989 million and net interest income of €7,560 million, alongside an additional multi billion euro share buyback tranche.
See our latest analysis for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.
The share price reaction has been mixed, with a 1 day share price return of 1.81% and a recent bounce on the Q1 update and buyback news, set against a 90 day share price return of a 14.15% decline. Even so, long term total shareholder returns remain very strong, with a 1 year total shareholder return of 60.36% and a 5 year total shareholder return around 4x. This points to momentum that has cooled recently rather than disappeared.
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The picture is complicated, with strong recent earnings, a large buyback and a value score of 5 set against a share price that some models see as significantly above intrinsic value. So is BBVA still mispriced, or is the market already baking in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 10.3% Undervalued
With BBVA last closing at €18.81 against a narrative fair value of €20.97, the current gap reflects a view that the shares trade below modelled fundamentals, built on detailed assumptions for growth, margins and discount rates.
BBVA is well-positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of the middle class and rising financial inclusion in high-growth emerging markets like Mexico and Turkey, fueling sustained loan growth and fee-generating activity, positively impacting top-line revenue and long-term earnings potential.
Want to see what underpins that optimism on emerging markets and earnings power? The narrative hinges on specific revenue growth, margin paths and required return assumptions. Curious which of those inputs really move the fair value needle? The full breakdown shows exactly how they add up to €20.97.
Result: Fair Value of €20.97 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this upbeat case can be knocked off course if emerging market volatility hits earnings harder than expected or if regulatory and execution setbacks squeeze profitability.
Find out about the key risks to this Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria narrative.
Next Steps
Optimistic about the rewards but cautious about the risks? Take a closer look now and weigh both sides by using our breakdown of 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs
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If BBVA has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Use this momentum to scan other opportunities and build a watchlist that truly matches your goals.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we’re here to simplify it.
Discover if Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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