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If you are wondering whether Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is still offering value at its current share price, the key is to understand what the market might be pricing in versus what the fundamentals suggest.
The stock recently closed at €18.37, after a 3.2% decline over the last 7 days and a 9.9% drop year to date, while still showing a 50.8% return over 1 year and a very large gain over 3 and 5 years.
Recent news coverage around the bank has largely focused on its position among European lenders and ongoing interest in the sector, which can shape how investors think about risks and opportunities. This context helps explain why the share price can be sensitive to shifts in sentiment, even when long term returns have been strong.
On our checks, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria scores 5 out of 6 on valuation, as shown by its 5/6 value score. Next, we will walk through the key valuation approaches behind that number before finishing with a way to assess value that goes beyond any single model.
The Excess Returns model looks at how efficiently a bank turns its equity into profits, then compares those returns with the cost of equity to estimate what the shares could be worth.
For Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, the model uses a Book Value of €10.08 per share and a Stable EPS of €2.27 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 17 analysts. The Average Return on Equity is 19.99%, while the Cost of Equity is €0.97 per share. That gap leads to an Excess Return of €1.30 per share, which is what this approach treats as value created over and above the required return.
The analysis also factors in a Stable Book Value of €11.33 per share, sourced from weighted future Book Value estimates from 11 analysts. Putting these inputs together, the Excess Returns model points to an intrinsic value of about €33.08 per share, which is around 44.5% above the recent share price of €18.37, implying the stock screens as undervalued on this basis.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is undervalued by 44.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 224 more high quality undervalued stocks.
BBVA Discounted Cash Flow as at Mar 2026
For a profitable bank like Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, the P/E ratio is a useful way to link what you pay today with the earnings the business is generating right now. It helps you see how much the market is willing to pay for each euro of earnings.
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E ratio often reflects two things: how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings might be. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk usually line up with a lower P/E.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria currently trades on a P/E of 10.24x. That sits close to the Banks industry average P/E of 10.83x and slightly below the peer average of 11.72x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for the stock is 12.57x, which is its proprietary estimate of what the P/E “should” be, after considering factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and key risks.
Because the Fair Ratio is tailored to the company’s own profile, it can provide a more nuanced reference point than a simple comparison with peers or the wider industry. With the current P/E of 10.24x below the Fair Ratio of 12.57x, the shares screen as trading below that indicated level.
Result: UNDERVALUED
BME:BBVA P/E Ratio as at Mar 2026
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your own story about Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, linked directly to numbers like future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value estimate that you can compare with the current share price to decide whether you see room to buy more, trim or sit tight.
On Simply Wall St, within the Community page that is used by millions of investors, Narratives make this easy by tying a company’s story to a forecast and then to a fair value. You can, for example, line up a more optimistic view that assumes a higher fair value of about €24.90 against a more cautious view closer to €15.19, and see how those different assumptions around growth, margins, discount rates and future P/E ratios translate into very different opinions on what Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria might be worth today. Each Narrative updates automatically as new earnings, news or analyst estimates are added to the platform.
For Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Narratives:
🐂 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: €24.90 per share
Implied undervaluation versus the recent €18.37 close: about 26.2%
Assumed annual revenue growth: 14.72%
Analysts backing this view see faster revenue growth, supported by higher assumed revenue and earnings in the years ahead.
The narrative leans on improving efficiency, a lower discount rate and a higher future P/E of 13.87x to support the higher fair value.
Execution on digital initiatives and the AI alliance with OpenAI is a key part of the story, alongside exposure to faster growing markets.
🐻 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Bear Case
Fair value in this cautious narrative: about €15.19 per share
Implied overvaluation versus the recent €18.37 close: about 21.0%
Assumed annual revenue growth: 7.67%
This view builds in more modest revenue growth and slightly lower profit margins over time, with a future P/E of about 9.86x.
It places more weight on risks tied to emerging market exposure, regulatory costs and competition from fintech and open banking.
Analysts behind this narrative see the current price as already reflecting a lot of the good news, so they mark fair value closer to €15.19.
If you want to see how other investors are joining the dots between these kinds of assumptions and their own views on BBVA, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives can be a useful next step before you decide where you stand on the stock.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
BME:BBVA 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BBVA.MC.
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