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Investors may be wondering whether Repsol still offers good value after a strong run in its share price, or if the easier gains are already behind it.
The stock last closed at €23.25, with returns of 3.2% over 7 days, 17.9% over 30 days, 41.7% year to date and 108.4% over 1 year. This naturally raises questions about how the current price lines up with underlying value.
These moves come against a backdrop of ongoing interest in the energy sector and recurring headlines around oil and gas producers, including Repsol, as investors reassess their exposure to traditional energy. Broader discussions around energy transition, capital allocation and shareholder returns continue to shape how the market looks at companies like Repsol.
On Simply Wall St’s 6 point valuation check, Repsol scores 5 out of 6. This suggests the stock screens as undervalued on most of those measures. The rest of this article will walk through those valuation approaches before finishing with a framework that can help you think about Repsol’s value in a more complete way.
Approach 1: Repsol Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting the company’s future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. It is essentially asking what those future euros of cash are worth in today’s terms.
For Repsol, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about €1.26b. Based on analyst inputs for the earlier years and then extrapolations, free cash flow is projected to be €2.71b in 2028, with further annual projections out to 2035 included in the model. These longer term figures combine analyst views for the next few years with Simply Wall St’s own estimates thereafter.
When all those projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model points to an estimated intrinsic value of €43.48 per share, compared with the recent share price of €23.25. That implies the stock is 46.5% below this DCF estimate, which indicates the shares are undervalued according to this measure.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Repsol is undervalued by 46.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 232 more high quality undervalued stocks.
REP Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026
Approach 2: Repsol Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like Repsol, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each euro of earnings. Higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk usually support a higher “normal” P/E, while slower growth or higher risk often goes with a lower one.
Repsol trades on a P/E of 10.73x. That sits below both the Oil and Gas industry average P/E of 14.93x and the peer group average of 11.76x, which suggests the stock is priced more cautiously than many sector peers on this simple comparison.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Repsol is 15.12x. This is a proprietary view of what the P/E could be, given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, risk characteristics, industry and market cap. Because it adjusts for these company specific drivers, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a straight comparison with peers or the broad industry, which may not share Repsol’s mix of strengths and risks. With the current P/E of 10.73x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 15.12x, the stock screens as undervalued on this measure.
Result: UNDERVALUED
BME:REP P/E Ratio as at May 2026
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Repsol Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so meet Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you turn your view of Repsol into a story that connects your forecast for revenue, earnings and margins to a Fair Value. It then compares that Fair Value with today’s price to help you decide whether the stock looks attractive or stretched, and automatically refreshes as new information such as earnings or Venezuela related news comes through. For example, one investor might build a cautious Repsol Narrative around a Fair Value of about €16.91 that leans on slower revenue growth and higher perceived risks, while another might choose a more optimistic Narrative closer to €32.00, reflecting a view that future earnings, margins and P/E support a higher valuation. Both perspectives sit side by side on the platform so you can see how different assumptions lead to very different conclusions.
For Repsol, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Repsol Narratives:
Fair value in this bullish analyst consensus style narrative: €24.03 per share.
At the last close of €23.25, this view suggests Repsol trades about 3.2% below that fair value snapshot.
Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 9.43% a year.
Analysts see renewables, green hydrogen and advanced biofuels adding new revenue streams, while refining and digital efficiency projects support margins.
Upstream portfolio changes, with more focus on lower cost assets, are expected to support cash flow and return on capital while maintaining exposure to hydrocarbons.
The consensus fair value of €24.03, with a range from €16.10 to €32.00, reflects a view that Repsol is roughly fairly priced on these assumptions, with investors encouraged to test those inputs for themselves.
Fair value in this more cautious bearish analyst cohort narrative: €16.91 per share.
At the last close of €23.25, this view suggests Repsol trades about 27.3% above that fair value snapshot.
Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 2.16% a year.
This scenario leans on headwinds from decarbonization policies, possible oversupply in oil markets and ESG related pressures on profitability and capital costs.
Slower progress in renewables and the risk of legacy hydrocarbon assets becoming less economic are central to the lower earnings and valuation assumptions.
The implied fair value of €16.91, well below the recent share price, reflects concern that the market may be pricing in more growth and resilience than these analysts consider likely.
If you want to see these Repsol Narratives in full, compare the underlying earnings paths and judge which assumptions line up most closely with your own view, you can start with these two and then see what the wider Community is saying about the stock through See what the community is saying about Repsol.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Repsol? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
BME:REP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include REP.MC.
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