We sure had some drama to get here. Spain needed to win in their final game to secure the group, and Austria qualified with their last match of the group stage. Now the scene is set for this Round of 32 matchup between the two European sides.

Thursday’s match will begin at 3 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. The victor will go on to face the winner between Portugal and Croatia, which will be played at 7 p.m. ET on Thursday.

The Spanish are -320 favorites to win in regular time (-1000 to advance to the Round of 16) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Morocco is +950 (+550 to advance). There are +425 odds that the tie will require extra time to decide.

Below, I’ll break down this knockout clash and provide my favorite bet.

Spain vs. Austria Best Bet:

Best Bet: Spain Moneyline + Both Teams To Score: No (-130): Spain didn’t hold three clean sheets in three group stage games by accident. Austria’s attack will be up a creek trying to break this back line, while the Spanish attack has too much quality to be held off the scoresheet again. This one may go scoreless deep into the second half, but La Roja will have their moment for a winner.

Spain vs. Austria prediction, pick

Despite their draw against Cape Verde in the opening match, Spain’s performance in the group stage was impressive. Their vaunted defense posted clean sheets in all three matches, including a crucial 1-0 win over Uruguay to clinch the group. With some new faces taking their place on the back line, it was no guarantee that the historically dominant Spanish defense would continue to thrive, but those questions have been answered.

The problem is the attack. Spain scored four of their five group-stage goals against a porous Saudi Arabian defense, a concern after showing great attacking prowess in the UEFA qualifiers. Lamine Yamal’s health certainly played a role, and they loved to see him get back on track with a goal against the Saudis; the young Ballon d’Or candidate plays a crucial role in La Roja’s World Cup title hopes. Mikel Oyarzabal bagging a pair of goals must have felt good, and Alex Baena provided some quality against Uruguay in the group clincher. We’ll see what kind of lineup manager Luis de la Fuente chooses to roll with for this knockout contest.

Austria had one of the most “we’re so back”/”it’s so over” group stages of all time. Needing a draw or a win to advance against Algeria, the Austrians gave up two equalizers, and Riyad Mahrez threatened to bury them with a 93rd-minute goal. But they scrapped and found the chance, with Sasa Kalajdzic burying a 96th-minute equalizer on their last touch of the game, securing Austria’s place in the Round of 32.

Their reward? Playing a powerhouse Spain team. Oof.

If the Austrians want to pull the upset, they need more out of everybody not named Marcel Sabitzer. The back line and goalkeeper Alexander Schlager have been porous. Their defensive midfielders have not been able to connect with the attackers with progressive play. Sabitzer is being forced to range all over the field to link the back line with the forwards, and it’s leaving him gassed down the stretch. At least they know Marko Arnautovic still has it; the 37-year-old poacher was the only Austrian player to score multiple goals in the group stage.

This team isn’t built to counter. They need to be comfortable playing out of possession to break Spain’s midfield defense and patiently work opportunities for crosses through Sabitzer. It’s not an impossible task for Austria, who have pulled some significant upsets with this core of players.

Ultimately, I don’t see Austria having enough quality to break La Roja’s back line. It may take Spain a while to find the winner, but they will grind this team down until they have their result.

Best Bet: Spain Moneyline + Both Teams To Score: No (-130)

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