Get insights on thousands of stocks from the global community of over 7 million individual investors at Simply Wall St.
Banco Santander (BME:SAN) has stepped up its ongoing share buyback programme, recently acquiring about 10.2 million shares between 2 and 8 July 2026 as part of a multi year capital return effort.
See our latest analysis for Banco Santander.
The recent buybacks come at a time when Banco Santander’s 1 month share price return of 16.22% and year to date share price return of 18.40% sit alongside a 1 year total shareholder return of 71.73% and a very large 5 year total shareholder return. This indicates momentum that long term holders have already experienced, while short term moves still reflect shifting views on the bank’s growth potential and risk profile.
If this kind of sustained performance has your attention, it can be useful to widen the lens and see what else is working in the market, starting with 107 top founder-led companies
After Banco Santander’s sharp 1 year share price and total return run, plus ongoing buybacks shrinking the share count, the real tension now is whether the stronger upside sits ahead of investors or mostly in the rear view.
Most Popular Narrative: 60% Undervalued
The most followed narrative suggests Banco Santander has a fair value of €12.21, sitting modestly above the recent close at €12.14. This keeps attention on what is built into those assumptions rather than the share price alone.
Ongoing transformation and cost reduction programs (ONE Transformation) are delivering structural operational leverage, with significant potential remaining as legacy systems are phased out. This supports a sustainable improvement in cost/income ratio and operating profits even in more muted economic environments. Strategic focus on high-growth markets (especially Brazil, Mexico, and the U.S.) and business lines such as payments and wealth management enhances top-line growth outlook and non-interest income, underpinning future earnings expansion as higher-yielding, fee-driven products gain increased penetration.
Want to see what sits behind that fair value call? Revenue expansion, margin shifts and a lower future earnings multiple all pull in different directions. The narrative joins those moving parts into one clear pricing story that you can test against your own expectations.
Result: Fair Value of €12.21 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, that story for Banco Santander can be knocked off course if Brazil credit quality weakens further or if AI and systems investments fail to deliver expected savings.
Find out about the key risks to this Banco Santander narrative.
Another View: How Banco Santander Looks On Simple P/E
The SWS DCF model points to Banco Santander trading at a discount to estimated future cash flows, yet on a simple P/E check the picture is less clear. The stock trades at 13.9x earnings versus 13.5x for peers and 12x for the wider European banks, while the fair ratio is 15.7x. That mix suggests some safety if the market leans toward the fair ratio, but also leaves a question about how much P/E compression risk you are comfortable holding.
To see how those valuation gaps stack up in practice, and what they might mean for upside or downside if sentiment shifts, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
BME:SAN P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026 Next Steps
With sentiment on Banco Santander split between upside potential and what might already be priced in, it may be useful to look more closely at the underlying details yourself, starting with 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Banco Santander?
If Banco Santander has sharpened your focus, do not stop here, the broader market still holds plenty of opportunities that could fit your goals.
Use the Simply Wall St Screener to keep your investing edge, starting with ideas that many investors overlook but could matter for the next phase of your portfolio.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include SAN.MC.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com