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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BME:BBVA) is in focus after portfolio company Veridas agreed to merge with identity verification provider Fourthline, creating a larger digital identity platform where BBVA will remain a shareholder.
See our latest analysis for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria.
BBVA’s latest move in digital identity comes after a strong period for shareholders, with the stock’s share price returning 8.3% year to date and 8.7% over 90 days. The 1 year total shareholder return of 80.2% and very large 5 year total shareholder return highlight how sustained sentiment around the bank’s earnings profile and regional exposure has shaped the longer term picture, even as the share price slipped 2.4% over the last day.
If this kind of corporate activity has your attention, it can be a good moment to widen your watchlist with other financial companies and resilient businesses by checking out the 105 top founder-led companies
After such strong recent returns and a fresh corporate move in digital identity, it is fair to ask whether most of the easy gains in Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria are already behind you or if the current valuation still points to further upside.
Most Popular Narrative: 5.3% Overvalued
On the most followed narrative, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria screens slightly above its fair value of €20.97 compared with the last close at €22.07, which raises the question of what assumptions sit behind that gap.
BBVA is well-positioned to benefit from the continued expansion of the middle class and rising financial inclusion in high-growth emerging markets like Mexico and Turkey, fueling sustained loan growth and fee-generating activity, positively impacting top-line revenue and long-term earnings potential.
Curious what kind of revenue path and profit margins need to hold for that fair value to make sense? The narrative leans on firm growth expectations, specific earnings targets and a future valuation multiple that many investors usually associate with larger global banks. The full story sets these moving parts against a single discount rate and a tight gap between model value and the current share price.
Result: Fair Value of €20.97 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, if conditions worsen, BBVA’s heavy reliance on emerging markets and rising competition from digital banks could quickly challenge those optimistic earnings and valuation assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria narrative.
Another View: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Through Earnings Multiples
While the analyst narrative lands on a fair value of €20.97 and a 5.3% premium in the current price, the market is pricing Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria at a P/E of 11.8x, exactly in line with the European banks average of 11.8x and below a fair ratio of 13.4x.
That gap to the fair ratio suggests the market could still be pricing in some caution on future earnings quality and risk, even after the strong share price run. The question for you is whether that caution feels excessive or reasonable given BBVA’s emerging market exposure and digital ambitions.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
BME:BBVA P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026 Next Steps
If this mix of optimism and caution around Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria has you thinking, act while the data is fresh and test the narrative against your own expectations using the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BBVA.MC.
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