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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria stock has delivered a very large 427.7% return over the past five years, yet the latest intrinsic value checks and earnings based multiples both still point to the shares trading at a discount to their estimated worth.
Over five years, a 427.7% total return puts BBVA among the stronger performers in large European banking, which raises the bar for any further upside to be justified by fundamentals.
On the positive side, progress on a €1.46b share buyback program can support per share metrics, while the pending trial in the Villarejo case may weigh on how investors assess BBVA’s risk profile and required return.
BBVA screens as undervalued on the Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate and on earnings based multiples, and the broader checks also lean cheap, with the stock passing 5 of 6 valuation tests.
The issue now is whether that apparent discount, around an intrinsic value estimate that is 36.9% above the market price, still offers an appealing margin of safety after such a strong multi year run.
Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Still Cheap on Excess Returns?
The Excess Returns model looks at how effectively Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria turns its equity base into profits above the return investors require. For BBVA, the inputs are fairly strong, with an average Return on Equity of 20.76% on a Book Value of €9.60 per share and a Stable EPS estimate of €2.38 per share, compared with a Cost of Equity of €0.99 per share. That gap produces an Excess Return of €1.39 per share on a Stable Book Value that is projected at €11.49 per share.
Feeding those economics into the Excess Returns framework produces an intrinsic value estimate of about €34.99 per share. This sits 36.9% above the current market price and indicates that the stock looks undervalued on this model. The National Court decision to open a trial in the Villarejo case helps explain why the market may still be applying a higher risk premium. This is the case even though the model’s inputs are driven by analyst expectations for future returns on equity.
On the Excess Returns model, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria stock currently screens as undervalued relative to its estimated intrinsic worth.
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is undervalued by 36.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 224 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Story Continues
BBVA Discounted Cash Flow as at Jul 2026
Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria a Bargain on Earnings?
The P/E ratio is a useful anchor for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria because earnings are a key yardstick for banks. BBVA currently trades on a P/E of 11.8x, which is slightly above the wider banks sector average of 11.7x but below the peer group average of 13.8x. The fair P/E ratio implied by the model is 13.4x, reflecting BBVA’s specific mix of profitability, risk and size.
Set against that 13.4x fair multiple, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s 11.8x P/E suggests the stock changes hands at a discount rather than a premium to what the model implies. This gap remains in place even with the ongoing share buyback program, which can support per share earnings and often draws closer attention to earnings based valuations.
Overall, the P/E comparison indicates that Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria stock appears undervalued on this earnings multiple.
BME:BBVA P/E Ratio as at Jul 2026
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
The Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Narrative: What Would Justify Today’s Price?
Simply Wall St Narratives for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria pick up where the valuation work leaves off by explaining which paths for growth, margins and earnings would need to hold for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today’s price. Each Narrative presents Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria’s fair value as a thesis about the business that can be revisited over time, rather than as a one-off snapshot, and they are available on Simply Wall St’s Community page.
Community views on Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria sit far apart, with one camp focused on capital returns and another on execution and market risks.
Bull case: 18% undervalued
“Dynamic expansion in open banking, embedded finance, and sustainability-linked financial products, areas where BBVA commands an early-mover advantage, hold potential to unlock new fee streams…”
Read the full Bull Case to see why Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria could be undervalued
Bear case: 42% overvalued
“Accelerated digital disruption and the rapid rise of fintech challengers threaten to erode BBVA’s traditional banking customer base, as new, agile entrants offer more attractive, lower-cost digital products…”
Read the full Bear Case to see why Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria could be overvalued
Do you think there’s more to the story for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
The Bottom Line
For Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, both the Excess Returns intrinsic value estimate and the earnings multiple view currently point in the same direction, with the stock screening as undervalued despite a very large prior move. The key question is whether the discount reflects cautious sentiment or a reasonable buffer for legal and execution risks that could affect how much of the implied value is realised. From here, what matters most is whether BBVA can maintain the profitability profile embedded in the intrinsic value assumptions and reassure investors that the Villarejo case and other risk factors do not justify a persistently higher required return.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BBVA.MC.
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