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Regulatory approval for Webster deal puts Banco Santander in focus
Banco Santander (BME:SAN) is back on investors’ radar after securing US Federal Reserve approval for its planned €12.2b acquisition of Webster. This marks a step that draws fresh attention to the stock’s recent performance.
See our latest analysis for Banco Santander.
Alongside the Webster approval, Banco Santander’s share price has climbed over recent months, with a 30 day share price return of 8.5% and a 90 day share price return of 22.9%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 64.9% and 5 year total shareholder return of more than 3.5x suggest momentum has been strong over both shorter and longer horizons.
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After a strong run and with the Webster approval now in hand, some investors might prefer to wait for a pullback. Others see Banco Santander’s current valuation as acceptable for new money. The numbers can help clarify that trade off next.
Most Popular Narrative: 1.4% Undervalued
Banco Santander’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of €13.04 per share, compared with the recent close at €12.86. That small gap sits on top of a much larger difference between this fair value and Simply Wall St’s estimate from its discounted cash flow work.
The analysts have a consensus price target of €13.04 for Banco Santander based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
In order for you to agree with the analysts, you’d need to believe that by 2029, revenues will be €73.6 billion, earnings will come to €20.9 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 9.6x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.4%.
The current narrative rests on specific calls about revenue growth, future profitability and where the P/E multiple ends up. Want to see how those moving parts combine into that €13.04 fair value and how they differ from the €18.74 future cash flow estimate? The full story sits in the detailed narrative behind these numbers.
Result: Fair Value of €13.04 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the Banco Santander narrative could be knocked off course if loan quality weakens in key markets, or if regulatory and legal costs rise meaningfully.
Find out about the key risks to this Banco Santander narrative.
Next Steps
Mixed on the outlook for Banco Santander after the Webster news and valuation gap story. If you want to move quickly and form your own view, start by weighing its rewards against its risks using the 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Banco Santander?
If this Banco Santander story has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broader context from other stocks can help you judge risk, quality and income potential more clearly.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include SAN.MC.
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