Winter 2026 airfares in Europe are projected to remain high with continued upward pressure, despite recent tentative deals to end the Iran war. Although the conflict’s peak intensity has passed, the aviation sector continues to grapple with a massive backlog of elevated operating costs, meaning travellers heading into the winter season should expect fewer deals and higher baseline ticket prices.
Most major European carriers—including easyJet, British Airways, and Ryanair—originally mitigated the initial 2026 oil shock using financial cushions called “fuel hedges”. However, these protections are heavily expiring in the latter half of the year.
As airlines are forced to purchase jet fuel at more recent, inflated market rates, these lagging costs are being passed directly to winter travellers via increased base fares and explicit fuel surcharges.
To cope with the financial strain and thin profit margins caused by the war, major European airlines have aggressively slashed their flight schedules. For instance, Lufthansa and Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) cut thousands of short- and medium-haul flights earlier in the year to prevent bankruptcy.
This structural reduction in seat capacity means that even during the typically slower winter months, lower supply will keep ticket prices buoyant. Aviation economists stress that airfares will outlast the immediate timeline of the war.
Even with diplomatic resolutions moving forward, structural damage to global supply chains, closed or rerouted airspace corridors, and the time required to safely ramp up Middle Eastern oil production mean fuel costs will not immediately return to pre-war baselines. Travel industry experts advise against waiting for a sudden drop in fares, noting that delayed booking is highly risky given lingering market volatility.