WTA Madrid Open has arrived. It’s the third two-week 1,000-point tournament of the tennis season, but the first on clay. Perhaps this will offer a taste of what the French Open might look like. It’s a pretty big main draw at 96, which means a lot of qualifying-round matches are on tap as players try to get a shot at generous point gains and prize money payouts. Monday has over a dozen qualifying matches in Madrid. Let’s look at three of them here.

WTA Madrid
Parks – Avanesyan: Time 11:30 EST

H2H: 1-0

Alycia Parks draws Elina Avanesyan in WTA Madrid qualifying. This is a really interesting matchup for a lot of reasons. Parks is ranked inside the top 100, Avanesyan outside the top 300. Yet, the betting markets have this matchup as a coin flip. Parks is only a very slight favorite at .04 points, on average. Another interesting part of all this is that Avanesyan won multiple matches at a recent Madrid ITF event. The reality that Avanesyan is comfortable in Madrid might be why the books have such close odds, despite the large gap in ranking between the two players. 

Best Bet to Make

Avanesyan might be comfortable playing in Madrid, but that was against ITF-level competition. Parks is better than that. Parks won their only match by a lopsided score (6-4, 6-2) earlier this season. If Parks had won two years ago, perhaps that result wouldn’t factor in as much, but an easy win just a couple of months ago makes it hard to imagine a scenario in which Avanesyan has completely turned things around. Maybe she will make the match closer, but she won’t win outright.

That being said, Parks winning is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Parks winning @1.92 @Unibet

Trevisan – Kraus: Time 9:30 EST

H2H: 0-1

Martina Trevisan and Sinja Kraus are trying to get a foothold on tour. Trevisan made the semifinals at the 2022 WTA French Open. She is clearly very comfortable on clay, but her tennis has not kept up. She has steadily fallen in the rankings and has not been able to compete at an elite level. Right now, her world ranking is outside the top 500. She lost in the first round of qualifying at WTA Indian Wells and WTA Miami earlier this year. She doesn’t have much momentum going into this match. Sinja Kraus has also been playing a lot on the ITF circuit, but was at least able to make the main draw at two WTA-level events in Linz and Miami. Lest we get carried away, it’s worth mentioning that she lost in the first round in both tournaments.

Best Bet to Make

Kraus should win, but she isn’t setting a high enough standard to be seen as a player who will completely dominate the match. Trevisan is more comfortable on clay and is hungry for a win. She won’t win the match outright, but she will keep it close. Kraus doesn’t have enough of a reputation to justify picking her in straight sets. Trevesian is likely going to steal at least one set from her.

That being said, Trevisan +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Trevisan +1.5 sets @2.05 @Ladbrokes

Potapova – Kostovic: Time 11:30 EST

H2H: 0-0

Anastasia Potapova and Teodora Kostovic are coming into this match from different positions. Potapova has played more WTA-level events. Kostovic, however, is found in ITF-level tournaments and the recent Billie Jean King Cup. Potapova made the final at WTA Linz before losing to Mirra Andreeva in a competitive match. Potapova is ranked just over 100 places higher than Kostovic. It is not a battle of equals.

Best Bet to Make

This match seems to be straightforward. Do not overthink this match. Potapova is having a good clay season, plays at a level much higher than Kostovic’s in most cases, and has established herself on tour as the superior player overall. There’s nothing here to suggest that Kostovic is about to pull an upset or do anything to make this match especially close. Potapova’s run to the WTA Linz final, where she gave Andreeva – a top-10 player – a good battle, is more than enough reason to think she will win decisively.

That being said, Potapova winning easily is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/ the best odds: Potapova -1.5 sets @1.72 @1xBet

Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports