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If you are wondering whether Repsol’s current share price really reflects its value, this article will walk through what the numbers say and how you might think about them.
Repsol shares last closed at €15.74, after a 2.8% decline over the past 7 days, a 0.9% gain over 30 days, a 4.1% decline year to date, and a 44.8% return over the last year, with returns of 19.1% over 3 years and 142.4% over 5 years.
Recent moves in the share price sit against a backdrop of ongoing company and sector news that investors are watching closely, including updates around energy markets, capital allocation and broader market sentiment. These factors help frame whether the recent pullback or longer term performance lines up with what you think the business is worth today.
Repsol currently has a valuation score of 3 out of 6. Next we will look at what that means across different valuation methods, before finishing with a way to tie those numbers into a fuller view of value.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those cash flows back to today to arrive at an estimate of what the entire business might be worth now.
For Repsol, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The company’s latest twelve month free cash flow is €1,317.6m. Analysts have provided detailed projections through to 2030, with free cash flow for that year estimated at €2,953m. Beyond the first few years, Simply Wall St extrapolates the path of free cash flow, with ten year projections pointing to annual figures in the low €2b to mid €3b range over 2026 to 2035, all expressed in €.
After discounting those future cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of €40.73 per share. Compared with the recent share price of €15.74, this implies the stock is about 61.4% undervalued on this set of assumptions.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Repsol is undervalued by 61.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 868 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
REP Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
For profitable companies like Repsol, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to connect the share price with the earnings that support it. You are essentially asking how many euros investors are currently willing to pay for each euro of yearly profit.
Story Continues
What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth expectations or higher risk usually point to a lower multiple.
Repsol currently trades on a P/E of 16.09x, compared with a peer average of 12.88x and an Oil and Gas industry average of about 13.81x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Repsol is 17.22x, which is their proprietary view of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks.
This Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored than a basic peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for Repsol’s own characteristics rather than assuming all companies should trade on the same multiple. Since the current P/E of 16.09x sits below the Fair Ratio of 17.22x, the shares appear undervalued on this metric.
Result: UNDERVALUED
BME:REP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026
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Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you and other investors set a story for Repsol, link that story to explicit forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, see a resulting fair value, compare it with the current price to judge whether you might buy or sell, and then watch that fair value update as news or earnings arrive. One investor might build a higher value Narrative around Repsol growing low carbon projects and earnings toward the upper end of analyst expectations, while another might anchor a lower value Narrative around slower progress, higher regulatory costs and earnings closer to the lower analyst range, all using the same shared tool.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Repsol? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
BME:REP 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include REP.MC.
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