Spain’s government is urging consumers to book airline tickets early as rising oil prices linked to the conflict in Iran increase pressure on fares and travel demand. Jordi Hereu, Spain’s Minister of Industry and Tourism, said current ticket prices still reflect earlier fuel purchases, but costs are expected to rise as airlines adjust to higher kerosene prices. Authorities describe the measure as a short-term response aimed at reducing price exposure for travelers and sustaining booking levels.
“What we are recommending is that people buy their tickets now because it is true that airlines are currently using kerosene that was purchased some time ago, and therefore there’s an element of price fluctuation involved,” Hereu said. He added that “it is already clear that prices have risen and this could affect demand,” pointing to early signs of pressure on travel activity as fuel costs increase.
Global oil prices have risen by about 50% since Feb. 28, following military actions by the United States and Israel targeting Iran. The increase has directly affected aviation fuel costs, with estimates suggesting that long-haul flights from Europe could rise by more than US$100 per ticket. Airlines are expected to pass part of these higher operating costs on to consumers, influencing booking behavior and potentially moderating demand on international routes.
Spain’s tourism sector remains a key economic driver, with 97 million visitors recorded in 2025, a 3.5% increase from the previous year. Authorities expect a similar trajectory in 2026, although rising travel costs introduce uncertainty into demand forecasts. Hereu said fuel price volatility complicates projections, particularly for long-haul markets, which are more sensitive to ticket price increases.
The government said it is monitoring fuel supply conditions and coordinating with European authorities to avoid shortages. Spain maintains relatively high kerosene reserves and production capacity compared with some other countries, providing a degree of resilience. However, officials emphasized that external demand remains a key variable, particularly in source markets that account for the majority of international arrivals.
“If the countries that send tourists to Spain had problems, we would have them too,” Hereu said. The statement reflects the interconnected nature of global tourism flows, where economic or logistical disruptions in origin markets can directly affect inbound travel and revenue.
Airlines Revise Forecasts Amid Rising Fuel Costs
Rising jet fuel prices are also reshaping financial expectations across the aviation sector, prompting major carriers to revise 2026 earnings guidance. American Airlines lowered its adjusted earnings per share forecast to a range between a loss of US$0.40 and a profit of US$1.10, compared with prior guidance of US$1.70 to US$2.70. The revision reflects an anticipated increase of more than US$4 billion in fuel expenses, with per-gallon prices nearing US$4.00.
United Airlines has taken a similar approach, reducing its full-year outlook despite reporting quarterly results above expectations. The airline now projects adjusted earnings per share between US$7 and US$11, down from earlier guidance of US$12 to US$14. The adjustment underscores the impact of fuel price volatility linked to instability in Middle East energy markets and highlights the sector’s exposure to input cost fluctuations.
Other carriers are also adjusting operational strategies as cost visibility declines. Alaska Airlines withdrew its full-year guidance, citing uncertainty in fuel pricing and demand. Ben Minicucci, chief executive officer of Alaska Airlines, said the company implemented fare increases of approximately US$25 to offset higher costs. Delta Air Lines paused planned capacity growth for the current quarter, with Ed Bastian, chief executive officer of Delta Air Lines, noting that fuel expenses are expected to rise by more than US$2 billion.
Fuel represents a significant share of airline operating costs, making the sector highly sensitive to price fluctuations. As existing fuel inventories are depleted and replaced with higher-cost supplies, airlines are expected to adjust fares gradually.
Supply Disruptions Raise Risk of Flight Cuts
Global supply constraints are intensifying pressure on fuel markets and aviation operations. The International Energy Agency reported that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have declined to about 2 million barrels per day, down from roughly 20 million barrels per day before the escalation of tensions. The agency identified reopening the route as a critical factor in stabilizing supply and moderating price volatility.
Disruptions in Middle East supply routes are already affecting operational planning in Europe. The International Air Transport Association warned that airlines could begin canceling flights as early as late May due to jet fuel shortages. Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, said airlines are preparing contingency measures while seeking alternative supply sources.
“Along with doing everything possible to secure alternative supply lines, it is important that authorities have well-communicated and well-coordinated plans in place in case rationing becomes necessary, including for slot relief,” Walsh said. His comments indicate that capacity constraints could emerge during peak travel periods if fuel shortages persist.
Europe’s reliance on imported jet fuel increases its exposure to supply disruptions. Approximately 75% of aviation fuel in the region is sourced from the Middle East, creating vulnerability to logistical constraints in key shipping routes. This dependency leaves airlines exposed to rapid transmission of supply shocks into operational disruptions and pricing pressure.
Fatih Birol, executive director, International Energy Agency, said fuel reserves in Europe are limited. “Europe has maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left,” Birol said. He warned that prolonged disruption could lead to flight cancellations and extend the impact of the energy crisis across aviation markets, affecting both capacity planning and financial performance.