According to the jury citation, the professor at Northwestern University (Chicago, United States) has been a key figure in the development of modern econometric methods that have transformed how economists infer conclusions from data, recognize the degree of uncertainty in their models, and evaluate public policies when the evidence is incomplete.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe methods he developed assess the degree of confidence that can be placed in empirical measurement,\u201d the citation states, and for this reason his contributions have made him \u201ca critical conscience of measurement in the social sciences.\u201d<\/p>\n
Manski\u2019s work \u201chas uncovered some of the erroneous assumptions we economists are prey to, which make our predictions and understanding of behavior quite fragile,\u201d says committee member Sir Richard Blundell, David Ricardo Professor of Political Economy at University College London (United Kingdom).<\/p>\n
Manuel Arellano, Professor of Economics at the Center for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI) of Banco de Espa\u00f1a, and secretary to the committee, hails Manski\u2019s prominent role in promoting the use of surveys to incorporate economic agents\u2019 expectations into economic analysis. Today, central banks such as Banco de Espa\u00f1a, Banca d\u2019Italia, and the New York Federal Reserve conduct surveys that gather, for example, the probabilities people assign to their house prices or income increasing, or to being unemployed in the future.<\/p>\n
Going with \u201cdeep uncertainty\u201d over \u201cincredible certitude\u201d<\/p>\n