![\"Estimated](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/spain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ENSO-May-2026.jpg\")
Image credit: WMO<\/p>\nSpain has recorded 101 heat-related deaths through May, making this the deadliest May since the daily mortality monitoring system (MoMo) began keeping records in 2015. This was 3.6 times the average for May over the last decade.<\/p>\n
At least 27 564 high-temperature-related deaths were recorded across Spain between 2015 and 2025, according to the MoMo system. 2022 was the worst with 4 789 deaths, followed by 2025 with 3 832 deaths.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe problem is no longer just that it is hotter; it is that the heat is arriving earlier and earlier, and our bodies have not yet acclimatized,\u201d said the health minister, M\u00f3nica Garc\u00eda, as she presented the 2026 National Plan for Preventive Action on the Health Effects of Excessive Temperatures.<\/p>\n
The risk of mortality rises by between 9.1% and 10.7% for every degree by which temperatures exceed the threshold considered hazardous to health, according to calculations by the health ministry.<\/p>\n
Forecast models show a strong El Ni\u00f1o forming soon. Although El Ni\u00f1o is only one factor affecting global temperature and precipitation patterns, the phenomenon has historically been associated with elevated global temperatures and an increased likelihood of heat extremes in some regions.<\/p>\n
A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Ni\u00f1o event during June\u2013August 2026. Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90%.<\/p>\n
Although some uncertainty remains about El Ni\u00f1o peak strength and timing, most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate \u2013 and possibly strong.<\/p>\n
Image credit: WMO<\/p>\n
The WMO also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 1.66\u00b0C (34.98\u00b0F) between now and 2030, and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon.<\/p>\n
Long-range climate outlooks released by the WMO and the UK Met Office indicate a 75% probability that average global temperatures during the 2026-2030 period will exceed 1.5\u00b0C (2.7\u00b0F) above pre-industrial levels. The agencies also project continued rapid warming across the Arctic over the coming years.<\/p>\n
The latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion from NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) shows an 82% chance that El Ni\u00f1o will develop between May and July 2026.<\/p>\n
NOAA also forecasts a 96% chance that El Ni\u00f1o conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026\u201327.<\/p>\n
The strongest early El Ni\u00f1o signal currently appears across parts of Canada and the northern United States, where forecast guidance increasingly supports warmer conditions during June and early summer.<\/p>\n
Read more:<\/p>\n
References:<\/p>\n
1 Spain records highest number of May heat-related deaths \u2013 Reuters<\/a> \u2013 June 3, 2026<\/p>\n