When the World Cup draw was announced, all eyes were immediately drawn to the bottom right corner of the bracket, where in theory, Argentina and Portugal could meet in the quarterfinals for the final matchup between Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo in each man\u2019s illustrious career. <\/p>\n
However, the Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas didn\u2019t win their group, setting up a titanic clash against Spain one round earlier than they might\u2019ve expected to play a top side. By the time night falls on Monday, either the third- or seventh-ranked team in the world will be watching the rest of the World Cup from home.<\/p>\n
The game will begin at 3 p.m. ET in Dallas. The winner will face either the United States or Belgium in the quarterfinals. Those teams will meet later Monday.<\/p>\n
La Roja are -105 favorites<\/a> to claim the match in regular time (-220 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a>, and Portugal is +300 (+175 to advance). There are +260 odds that the match will require extra time to decide.<\/p>\n Below, I\u2019ll break down this all-Iberian showdown and provide my favorite bet.<\/p>\n Portugal vs. Spain Best Bet:<\/p>\n Spain Moneyline (-115): As strong as Spain\u2019s attack is, I\u2019m picking La Roja because of their defense. In four games, they haven\u2019t even allowed one expected goal\u2019s worth of chances, and Portugal has been very wasteful in the attack, putting fewer than 30% of its shots on target. The Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas have an excellent defense too, but La Roja should have enough up front to put one past Diogo Costa.<\/p>\n Portugal vs. Spain prediction, pick<\/p>\n Both of these teams have been pretty inconsistent, but Spain has definitely been better overall. The Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas only really looked good in the group stage against Uzbekistan, and the White Wolves were arguably the worst team in the competition. Portugal drew its opening match with DR Congo and the potential group decider with Colombia, and it needed a pair of controversial VAR decisions \u2014 the first a penalty call to equalize and the second an offsides call that wiped a potential Croatia equalizer off the board \u2014 just to advance out of the Round of 32. La Roja had a similar story in the group stage \u2014 a disappointing draw against an African team, a blowout win over a West Asian side, and a narrow result against a South American giant \u2014 but they dominated Austria in the Round of 32, managing to put three past Alexander Schlager. Lamine Yamal, now fully healthy, has settled into the tournament.<\/p>\n On paper, the Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas have just as much noteworthy talent as their much bigger neighbor. Ronaldo finally picked up his first knockout stage goal on Thursday by poking a penalty past Dominik Livakovi\u0107, and Gon\u00e7alo Ramos scored the winner against the Blazers after Ronaldo had been substituted off. Portugal also has arguably the best setup crew in the world, as each of the midfield trio of Vitinha, Jo\u00e3o Neves, and Bruno Fernandes is arguably a top-10 player in the world in his own right. The Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas\u2019 attack has mostly lived up to the billing, producing the 14th-most expected goals per match and completing passes at the highest rate, though they\u2019ve struggled to challenge goalkeepers sometimes, getting only 28.8% of their shots on target. Defensively, Portugal has been decent, giving up 1.04 expected goals per game and limiting opponents to the 11th-fewest expected goals per shot. The Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas have also won a majority of both their ground and aerial duels, and they press relatively frequently. Portugal has also played pretty cleanly, committing among the fewest fouls, and even if it does make mistakes, it has the ultimate failsafe in Diogo Costa, one of the best goalkeepers in the world. Costa ranks 12th in goals prevented per 90 minutes so far this tournament.<\/p>\n Spain has looked stronger in the attack, even though Yamal wasn\u2019t 100% during the group stage. The Barcelona wunderkind did find the back of the net from close range against Saudi Arabia, but so far, La Roja\u2019s attack has largely been driven by Mikel Oyarzabal, who has four goals and one assist after recording braces against both the Green Falcons and Austria. All in all, Spain has managed the fourth-most shots and the fifth-most shots on target per match, as well as the 11th-most expected goals. Similarly, La Roja have completed passes at high rates, and like the Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas, they\u2019ve largely avoided errors leading to a shot. Defensively, Spain has been historically tremendous; it has allowed only three shots on goal all tournament, and because opponents have attempted a majority of their shots from outside the box, those shots have combined for just 0.84 expected goals. Additionally, La Roja have won their aerial duels at a rate more than 10 percentage points higher than any other team, and their high press has forced the most turnovers. Spain does foul at a relatively high rate, but it has done a good job defending set pieces, and it has three of the best goalies in the world on its roster in Unai Sim\u00f3n, David Raya, and Joan Garc\u00eda, with Sim\u00f3n currently holding the record for the longest streak without conceding at the World Cup. <\/p>\n This should be a pretty epic match between two similarly talented teams, and the battle between Yamal and Nuno Mendes on the right wing will especially be a battle to watch. Oyarzabal\u2019s performance will also be critical, because he\u2019s paired excellent efforts against Austria and Saudi Arabia with stinkers against Cape Verde and Uruguay. Ultimately, though, Portugal has been far too wasteful with its chances, and despite Ronaldo\u2019s three goals, it\u2019s not clear whether he\u2019s actually a better option than Ramos at this point in his career. Plus, two of the Sele\u00e7ao das Quinas\u2019 goals \u2014 the go-ahead strike against DR Congo and Ramos\u2019 winner against Croatia \u2014 have come via header, and that could be an issue against such a dominant aerial team. Portugal will be by far the toughest defensive matchup that Spain has faced, but as long as Oyarzabal is in form, I trust La Roja\u2019s wide players to find him in the right positions and to secure a winner before the 90 minutes is up.<\/p>\n Best Bet: Spain Moneyline (-115)<\/p>\n Additional World Cup Coverage<\/p>\n