“Viva Espa\u00f1a!” some of the migrants shouted to a freelance photographer as they came around the Tarajal breakwater into Ceuta, the Spanish enclave on Morocco’s northern coast.<\/p>\n
Watching from the Spanish side, Rachid Sbihi, head of the association representing Civil Guard officers in Ceuta, expressed sentiments heralding the death of Spain<\/a> instead. “Absolute chaos,” he said, adding that the border had “totally collapsed.”<\/p>\n Confidence in Spain and the collapse of Spanish control, in a single moment. That collision is the key to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro S\u00e1nchez’s confrontation with President Donald Trump<\/a>.<\/p>\n Read More on Analysis<\/p>\n Madrid keeps declaring its independence from Washington. On five fronts at once, Spain is discovering the distance between asserting sovereignty and holding the leverage to sustain it.<\/p>\n Spanish officials estimate some 49,000 migrants have crossed<\/a> unlawfully into Ceuta in 24 hours, swimming and sailing around the border en masse.<\/p>\n The Trump White House made clear in its national security strategy that it sees mass migration to Europe as a destabilizing, civilization-destroying phenomenon encouraged by leftist politicians like those governing Spain.<\/p>\n Ceuta is its dramatic exhibit: proof, on Trump’s telling, that permissive migration policies end in a loss of territorial control.<\/p>\n White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump had long warned Europe about far-left, globalist policies, including mass migration, and that Spain should reverse course “or risk their own demise.”<\/p>\n Instead, Madrid refused Ceuta’s request for a national emergency declaration, on the ground that civil-protection law does not treat migration as a national-security risk\u2014correct as law, terrible as politics.<\/p>\n Trump is no longer the loudest voice. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signaled readiness for “extraordinary measures,” including Spain\u2019s suspension from the Schengen Area, the zone in which EU members allow borderless movement.<\/p>\n 2. Spain as NATO<\/a>‘s ‘Wasted Cause’<\/p>\n Spain’s case about its contributions to NATO is far stronger than Trump admits. Yet Madrid is losing the argument inside the alliance.<\/p>\n S\u00e1nchez says NATO’s Defence Policy and Planning Committee found Spain met its 2026 capability targets with compliance above the European average\u2014seventh best of 32 allies.<\/p>\n In early June it was the third-largest contributor of personnel to NATO missions, second in naval capabilities, fourth in air, and the largest ground-force presence on the eastern flank.<\/p>\n It has joined NATO’s new Arctic mission in Finland. Of the roughly \u20ac35.5 billion it spends on defense, 44 percent goes to new equipment, against a NATO average of just over 20 percent.<\/p>\n None of that has satisfied the White House. Trump demanded the 2 percent target be raised to shift more of Europe’s security burden onto allies and push them to meet 21st-century threats.<\/p>\n The Hague target\u20145 percent of GDP by 2035\u2014is now the public scoreboard.<\/p>\n Spain is the only ally that declined to fully commit, arguing that roughly 2.1 percent buys the capabilities NATO actually assigned it.<\/p>\n Trump demands “5 percent”\u2014strong, clear, easily understood\u2014while S\u00e1nchez must explain that force planning, capability targets and spending composition mean Spain doesn\u2019t need to meet it. Technically sophisticated, politically hopeless.<\/p>\n Spain, alone in NATO, looks like the difficult ally weakening it just when strengthening is needed. At the summit in Ankara in early July, Trump called Spain a “wasted cause” and “a terrible partner in NATO,” threatening to cut off all trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n S\u00e1nchez, at the same summit, said Spain upholds NATO\u2019s values and is “a peaceful and pacifist country,” adding that Madrid is “spending more wisely” on defense.<\/p>\n