Americans are representing in the bottom half of the draw as the U.S. Open heads into week 2, with Frances Tiafoe taking on Daniil Medvedev and Alex Michelsen in action against Tomas Martin Etcheverry on Sunday.
(11) Frances Tiafoe vs. (7) Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev owns this matchup and it isn’t close. He leads 6-1, he hasn’t lost to Frances Tiafoe since a qualifying match on clay in Nice back in 2015. Not just that, but the last two meetings were one-sided. Brisbane in January took him 59 minutes to prevail 6-3, 6-2. The 2020 U.S. Open fourth round finished 6-4, 6-1, 6-0. Both men arrived in the round of 16 without much fuss. Tiafoe took out Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 with 30 winners against 13 unforced errors and 85 percent of his first-serve points won. Medvedev handled Arthur Rinderknech 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 and still hasn’t dropped a set in New York.
Here’s why I’m going the other way. First, is the home-court advantage. The U.S. Open crowd loves Tiafoe and he gets energy from them. He also had a cyst removed from his wrist in early August and then came straight back and made the Cincinnati final, beating Learner Tien and Felix Auger-Aliassime back-to-back. That’s the best week he has put together in two years. Tiafoe also survived Martin Damm in five sets in the opening round, finishing just before 1:00 am — and Damm is the same player who ran Medvedev off the court at Winston-Salem. I just think Tiafoe has looked better in the last couple of rounds.
Cheryl pick: Tiafoe in 4
Ricky pick: Tiafoe in 4
(27) Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs. Alex Michelsen
Neither of these two had been this far at Flushing Meadows before, and they have never faced each other anywhere. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the first Argentine man in the U.S. Open round of 16 since Diego Schwartzman in 2021. Alex Michelsen has been the quieter story. He hasn’t lost a set all tournament; he knocked out 16th seed Brandon Nakashima in the second round and he came through Daniel Merida 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-3.
Andrew Patron/Delray Beach Open
The surface numbers make this look simpler than the seedings do. Etcheverry is 8-8 on hard courts in 2026 and his breakthrough title in Rio de Janeiro came on the dirt. Michelsen is 20-10 on hards this year with a semifinal in Brisbane. Etcheverry has the bigger serve and the better major record this season at 5-3, and if this turns into a three-hour grind he won’t mind one bit. I just don’t think Michelsen lets it get there. He is serving well, playing at home, and is the better hard-court player in this matchup. I’m giving the nod to Michelsen, but with the American dropping a set.
Cheryl pick: Michelsen in 4
Ricky pick: Michelsen in 3