One week down, and the 2026 US Open has already provided enough drama to fill an entire tournament.
From Novak Djokovic’s first-round exit, to Taylor Fritz’s collapse from two sets up, the men’s singles draw has been turned completely on its head.
On the women’s side, meanwhile, the established contenders have largely survived, although Madison Keys’ extraordinary defeat and several notable upsets have ensured there is still plenty of uncertainty heading into the second week.
With the fourth round beginning, the picture is finally starting to become clearer.
Djokovic’s early exit changes everything
The biggest shock of the tournament arrived on the opening day.
Djokovic’s pursuit of a record 25th Grand Slam title ended almost immediately as Mariano Navone produced a stunning five-set victory over the four-time US Open champion.
The Argentine recovered from losing the third set to win 2-6, 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-0, ending Djokovic’s remarkable run of 20 years without a first-round Grand Slam defeat.
With Jannik Sinner also absent from the tournament, Djokovic’s departure removed another of the major names expected to challenge Carlos Alcaraz.
Suddenly, the men’s singles draw became completely open.
PHOTO: Novak Djokovic of Serbia reacts against Mariano Navone of Argentina during their Men’s Singles First Round match on Day One of the 2026 US Open. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)Fritz blows two-set lead as American hopes suffer
Fritz looked to be cruising towards the fourth round against Francisco Cerundolo.
The ninth seed had taken the opening two sets and led by a break, seemingly on course to keep the American home crowd dreaming of a deep run.
Instead, Cerundolo produced one of the comebacks of the tournament.
The Argentine won four consecutive sets to defeat Fritz 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, leaving the American unable to capitalise on a huge opportunity in an already depleted draw.
The result is particularly significant given the wider American picture.
Fritz, Keys and Amanda Anisimova all exited on Saturday, meaning Coco Gauff is now carrying much of the home nation’s singles hopes.
Blockx announces himself on the biggest stage
One of the surprise packages of the tournament has been Alexander Blockx.
The Belgian arrived in New York having never progressed beyond the second round of a Grand Slam.
That changed emphatically.
Blockx stunned fifth seed Flavio Cobolli 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 to reach the fourth round of a Grand Slam for the first time.
The former junior world No.1 has enjoyed a breakthrough season, reaching his first ATP final in Estoril and a Masters 1000 semi-final in Madrid.
Now, he has a genuine opportunity to go even further. Blockx faces Cerundolo in the fourth round, meaning one of the two unexpected names will reach the quarter-finals.
Alcaraz looks like the man to beat
While the draw around him has collapsed, Alcaraz has quietly gone about his business.
The defending champion entered New York with question marks surrounding his fitness after four months away with a wrist injury.
Those concerns are quickly disappearing.
Alcaraz has won all three of his matches without dropping a set, most recently defeating Yibing Wu 6-3, 6-4, 6-1.
More importantly, the Spaniard has looked increasingly comfortable with every match.
He admitted before the tournament that he was unsure how his body would respond to competing again. After three matches, however, he is beginning to look like a genuine favourite to defend his title.
His next test will be considerably tougher. An in-form Tommy Paul awaits in the fourth round after the American fought back from two sets to one down to defeat Alexander Bublik.
Paul has beaten Alcaraz twice before, although the Spaniard leads their head-to-head 6-2.
PHOTO: Carlos Alcaraz of Spain reacts with partner Serena Williams of the United States in their mixed doubles match against Erin Routliffe and Lloyd Glasspool. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)Zverev quietly building a serious challenge
Alexander Zverev has not generated quite the same headlines as Alcaraz, but the top seed is putting together an extremely convincing tournament.
After surviving a four-and-a-half-hour battle with Quentin Halys in the second round, Zverev comfortably defeated Alejandro Tabilo in straight sets.
He now faces Luciano Darderi for a place in the quarter-finals.
The German’s biggest advantage could be his draw.
With Djokovic gone and several other high seeds already eliminated, Zverev has a genuine opportunity to reach the latter stages without facing one of the tournament’s biggest names.
Medvedev is back in his favourite territory
Another player who deserves considerably more attention is Daniil Medvedev.
The 2021 champion has reached the fourth round without dropping a set, defeating Arthur Rinderknech 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in his third-round match.
It is exactly the type of hard-court tennis that has made Medvedev so dangerous in New York over the years.
He has reached the last 16 in seven of his previous eight US Open appearances and will face Frances Tiafoe or Valentin Vacherot next.
With the draw opening up, Medvedev could be the dark horse capable of disrupting an Alcaraz-Zverev final.
Sabalenka’s title defence remains on track
The women’s singles draw has been considerably kinder to the leading contenders.
Aryna Sabalenka remains unbeaten and, crucially, has yet to drop a set.
The defending champion defeated Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3, 6-4 to reach the fourth round and extend her US Open winning streak to 14 matches.
Yet Sabalenka is under pressure.
Despite spending the entire season at world Number One, she has not won a Grand Slam in 2026.
There is also a huge ranking battle unfolding behind her, with Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and Gauff all still capable of taking the top spot.
The pressure of defending back-to-back US Open titles is therefore enormous.
PHOTO: Belarus’s Aryna Sabalenka reacts after defeating Uzbekistan’s Kamilla Rakhimova during their women’s singles third round tennis match on day six of the US Open. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)Rybakina presents the biggest threat
If anyone looks capable of stopping Sabalenka, Rybakina could be the answer.
The Australian Open champion has reached the fourth round after defeating Yuliia Starodubtseva, setting up a mouth-watering clash with Naomi Osaka.
Rybakina’s combination of an elite serve and devastating groundstrokes makes her particularly dangerous on the fast New York courts.
And with the No.1 ranking potentially on the line, there is plenty more than a quarter-final place at stake.
Gauff keeps the American dream alive
Gauff is now arguably the biggest remaining American hope.
The fourth seed has progressed through her first three matches without dropping a set, defeating Cristina Bucsa 6-3, 6-4 in the Arthur Ashe Stadium.
It is the fifth consecutive year that Gauff has reached the fourth round in New York.
She has not necessarily been at her absolute best, but that may actually be encouraging. The 2023 champion has shown an ability to win matches without needing to find her top level.
Swiatek survives, Zheng produces comeback of the tournament
Iga Swiatek has also quietly progressed into the second week.
The eighth seed defeated Marie Bouzkova 7-6(3), 7-6(3), saving three set points in the second set.
However, her next match could be one of the most intriguing of the fourth round. Qinwen Zheng awaits after the Chinese star produced an extraordinary comeback against Keys.
Zheng trailed 5-0 in the deciding set and faced match point before recovering to win 1-6, 7-6 (3), 7-5.
It was one of the defining moments of the first week.
British interest: a difficult singles tournament
British singles fans have had relatively little to celebrate in New York.
Katie Boulter suffered a heavy defeat to Karolina Muchova, while several of Britain’s men’s hopes also exited during the opening rounds.
The biggest disappointment is arguably the absence of Jack Draper, who withdrew before the tournament through injury.
Arthur Fery’s breakthrough summer had also generated excitement, but his singles campaign ended before the second week, although he is still in the doubles.
With the British contingent unable to replicate the success seen at Wimbledon, attention will now turn towards the remaining players and the possibility of a late run.
PHOTO: Arthur Fery in action against Lorenzo Musetti during a Men’s Singles match on Day Three of the 2026 US Open. (Photo by Simon Bruty/USTA via Getty Images)Who makes the finals?
The men’s tournament is almost impossible to predict, and that is exactly what makes it so exciting.
Men’s final prediction: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev
Alcaraz has the momentum, the experience and the advantage of being the defending champion.
Zverev, however, arguably has the more favourable route.
Medvedev is the major threat lurking in the draw, while Cerundolo or Blockx could provide a surprise quarter-finalist.
But if Alcaraz continues to improve physically with every match, he remains our pick.
Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz def. Alexander Zverev (Five sets)
Women’s final prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff
The women’s draw feels more predictable.
Sabalenka’s record in New York speaks for itself, while Rybakina is arguably the player best equipped to challenge her.
Gauff and Swiatek remain huge threats, but the power of Sabalenka and Rybakina could ultimately prove decisive.
Prediction: Coco Gauff def. Aryna Sabalenka (Three sets)
Week Two awaits
Djokovic is gone. Fritz is gone. Cobolli is gone. Keys and Anisimova are gone.
But Alcaraz, Zverev, Medvedev, Sabalenka, Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff remain.
The contenders are beginning to emerge, but with the men’s draw particularly open, one thing is already certain: the 2026 US Open is far from decided.