DraftKings<\/a><\/p>\nBy: Chris Gimino<\/p>\n
Francisco Cerundolo came back down two sets to upset Taylor Fritz on Saturday, delivering a heartbreaking blow to America’s chances of capturing its first men’s Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick in 2003.<\/p>\n
It doesn’t get any easier from here on out for Cerundolo, as he’ll face in an-form Blockx, who just took out the consistent Flavio Cobolli.<\/p>\n
However, despite the long match, my tennis model likes Cerundolo to win straight up, showing a 8.3%, A+ edge in favor of the Argentine.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Screenshot-2026-09-06-at-2.12.32-PM-1600x267.png\"\/)
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For more information on my model, here’s the breakdown below:<\/p>\n
For every match, three independent signals get blended into a final probability. First, a walk-forward Elo rating for each player (separate for overall and by surface, regressed hard toward a below-average baseline for anyone with a thin sample or a history of playing qualifiers, so a hot streak against weak competition can\u2019t fake elite form).<\/p>\n
Second, a point-by-point Monte Carlo simulation built from each player\u2019s real serve\/return stats, which gets pulled toward what Elo says whenever the two disagree \u2014 Elo acts as a strong check on the simulation, not the other way around.<\/p>\n
Third, the devigged market consensus price itself, blended in at the end as a sanity anchor. The result is a single win probability per match that reflects skill history, current form, and what the market already believes, not any one of those alone.<\/p>\n
From there, the same win probability is used to grade three markets \u2014 Moneyline, Spread, and Total Games \u2014 by comparing the model’s estimate against what the market is actually offering. The size of that gap, scaled consistently across all three markets on one shared scale, is the \u201cedge\u201d you see, and the letter grade is just that edge bucketed for a quick read.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, this value on Cerundolo is just too good to pass up, especially given that he will likely want revenge for losing to Blockx earlier this year in Madrid.<\/p>\n
Pick: Francisco Cerundolo ML +137<\/p>\n
![\"Author](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/check-100x100.png\")
<\/p>\n
About the Author<\/p>\n
Action Network is a team of seasoned sports betting experts specializing in a broad range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream options like cricket and darts. Their staff includes well-known analysts like Sean Koerner and Stuckey, recognized for their accurate predictions and deep sports knowledge. The team is dedicated to delivering expert analysis and daily best bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed across all major sports.<\/p>\n
This site contains commercial content<\/a>. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Round of 16 at the US Open continues on Labor Day in New York. Our staff has…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67468,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[185],"class_list":["post-67467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-coco-gauff","tag-coco-gauff"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67467","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67467"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67467\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67468"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67467"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67467"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/tennis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67467"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}