1
Montana’s 2026 midterm election is shaping up as an important test of Republican strength in a traditionally conservative state. The biggest contest is the open US Senate race, where Republican Kurt Alme is facing Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead and independent candidate Seth Bodnar. Voters are also deciding two US House races, including a closely watched contest in the state’s 1st Congressional District.
The current election forecast favours Republicans in the Senate race, but polling has shown a more complicated contest, particularly with Bodnar competing for voters who might otherwise support the Democratic candidate. In the House, the 1st District is considerably more competitive than the 2nd.
US Midterm Election 2026: When Is the Montana Election?
Montana’s 2026 general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, coinciding with the US midterm elections. Voters are choosing candidates for the US Senate, both of the state’s seats in the US House of Representatives, and several state and local offices. Polling stations are scheduled to remain open from 7 am to 8 pm local time. Voters who have not returned absentee ballots must ensure their ballots reach the relevant election office or polling place by the deadline on Election Day.
You Might Be Interested In
US Midterm Election 2026: When Will Montana Election Results 2026 Be Announced?
Initial results are expected after polling stations close on November 3. Counties will report vote counts as ballots are processed, with updates continuing through election night and potentially into the following days.
The first figures will be unofficial. Close contests, particularly the race for Montana’s 1st Congressional District, may take longer to call. Final certified results will follow the state’s official canvassing process.
US Midterm Election 2026:Â Who Are the Candidates Contesting the Montana Senate Election 2026?
The most closely watched statewide contest is the race for the US Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator Steve Daines, who is not seeking re-election.
The candidates on the general-election ballot include:
Kurt Alme (Republican): Former US attorney for the District of Montana and the Republican nominee.
Alani Bankhead (Democrat): The Democratic nominee challenging the Republican candidate.
Seth Bodnar (Independent): A former University of Montana president and independent candidate.
Kyle Austin (Libertarian): The Libertarian candidate in the contest.
Jami Woodman (write-in): A non-partisan write-in candidate.
The presence of Bodnar in the race is particularly significant. He has attracted support in polling that might otherwise have gone to Bankhead, making the contest more complicated for Democrats.
US Midterm Election 2026: Who Is Leading in the Montana Senate Election 2026?
Republican Kurt Alme is the overall favourite in several election forecasts, although polling has produced different pictures of the contest.
Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, updated ahead of Election Day, gave Alme a 77% probability of winning, compared with 23% for independent Seth Bodnar. Its projected margin was approximately six percentage points in Alme’s favour. However, a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll conducted on October 22–23 showed Bodnar at 39%, Alme at 38% and Bankhead at 10%. Other surveys have shown Alme with a more substantial lead.
The differences reflect the difficulty of forecasting a three-way contest. Some models treat Bodnar as the principal challenger to Alme, while others account for the possibility that the independent and Democratic candidates could divide voters opposed to the Republican nominee.
US Midterm Election 2026: Montana Senate Election 2026: Winner Prediction
Prediction: Kurt Alme is favoured to win.
The Republican candidate enters Election Day with an advantage in several major race ratings and forecasting models. The retirement of Daines has created an open-seat contest, but Montana’s Republican-leaning voting history remains a significant advantage for Alme.
Bodnar is the candidate most likely to complicate the Republican-versus-Democrat calculation. His polling strength could make the result less predictable than a conventional two-party contest. Bankhead, meanwhile, would need to consolidate Democratic support and attract a larger share of voters who currently favour the independent candidate.
The overall outlook favours Alme, but the final margin will depend on turnout and how voters who remain undecided divide among the candidates.
US Midterm Election 2026: Who Are the Candidates in Montana’s 1st Congressional District Race?
Montana’s 1st Congressional District is one of the most competitive House contests in the state. The main candidates are:
Aaron Flint (Republican): The Republican candidate seeking to retain the seat for his party.
Sam Forstag (Democrat): The Democratic nominee challenging Flint.
Nick Sheedy (Libertarian): The Libertarian candidate.
Polling has been mixed. A RedBox Research survey conducted from October 20–23 showed Flint ahead by two percentage points. An earlier Montana State University Billings poll, conducted from October 5–21, showed Forstag leading by 17 points. Other polling has also suggested a close contest.
The conflicting results make the 1st District a race to watch on election night. The outcome could depend on turnout in the district’s urban and rural communities and the final distribution of votes among the candidates.
US Midterm Election 2026: Who Are the Candidates in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District Race?
The 2nd Congressional District is expected to be a more comfortable contest for Republicans. The leading candidates are:
Forecasting models have rated the district as safely Republican, giving Downing a substantial advantage. Miller would need a significant shift in the electorate to make the race competitive.
US Midterm Election 2026: What Are the Key Issues in the Montana Election 2026?
The Senate and House contests are unfolding against a national political backdrop in which control of Congress is at stake. Montana voters are likely to weigh several issues when choosing their representatives.
Economy and cost of living: Household expenses, inflation, housing affordability and economic opportunities remain important concerns for voters.
Energy and natural resources: Montana’s economy is closely tied to agriculture, mining, energy production and public lands. Federal regulations and resource-management policies are likely to feature in the campaigns.
Healthcare: Access to medical services, rural hospitals, prescription costs and healthcare affordability are important statewide concerns.
Public lands and conservation: Debates over federal land management, outdoor recreation, conservation and natural-resource development remain central to Montana politics.
Federal government and national politics: The midterms will also serve as a test of the Trump administration and the balance of power in Washington. The results could affect congressional oversight, legislation and federal policy.
US Midterm Election 2026:Â What Should Voters Expect on Montana Election Night?
The Senate contest is expected to attract the most national attention, particularly because of the open seat and Bodnar’s independent candidacy. Alme enters the election as the favourite, but the polling differences mean that early results should be treated cautiously.
The 1st Congressional District could produce a closer contest and may take longer to call. The 2nd District, by contrast, is forecast to remain in Republican hands.
The results will determine Montana’s representation in the next Congress and contribute to the national battle for control of the US House and Senate.
Montana Election 2026: Key predictions at a glance
Contest
Leading candidate / forecast
Outlook
US Senate
Kurt Alme (R)
Republican favoured
US House District 1
Aaron Flint (R) vs Sam Forstag (D)
Competitive
US House District 2
Troy Downing (R)
Republican favoured